WTI Crude Oil fell to lows that challenged the 68.000 USD mark early on Wednesday of last week, the last time this price level for the commodity had been seen was in the last week of June 2023. However, as WTI Crude Oil slumped at this depth a reversal higher began to erupt. The move higher in the commodity may have been sparked technically by the lower price, but it seems the sudden burst upwards occurred as the U.S Federal Reserve released its FOMC Statement.
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Traders of WTI Crude Oil are sophisticated and the acknowledgment from the Fed that it has become neutral and seemingly dovish regarding future interest rate policy, sparked hopes that a weaker USD could help propel demand for WTI Crude Oil. The highs made on Thursday in WTI Crude Oil near the 72.730 vicinity touched values last seen on the 6th of December. Certainly the movement higher in WTI Crude Oil didn’t ignite a bullish parade that create huge price velocity upwards, but the ability of the commodity to jump higher based on the sentiment a weaker USD can help demand mid-term is of interest.
Before bullish traders decide to bet blindly on higher prices in WTI Crude Oil, they should take a long look at mid-term technical charts. The commodity is still solidly within the lower realms of its price values when six month and one year charts are examined. In fact, WTI Crude Oil remains within sight of important lows. The support levels near 68.000 were definitely tested last week. This leaves a difficult question open regarding what will happen in WTI Crude Oil this week.
- Behavioral sentiment remains rather optimistic regarding risk appetite in the global markets, but supply of Crude Oil internationally remains abundant.
- While China remains in a difficult economic spot, the nation still needs Crude Oil, but it must be stated that China is buying a large amount of the commodity from Iran at discounted prices according to oil analysts.
Speculators looking for a parade higher in WTI Crude Oil to mount this week need to keep their eyes on the 72.500 USD price. This has proven to be important resistance since the 6th of December. There is a chance the price for Crude Oil may come under pressure on Monday if this resistance level remains stubborn. For WTI Crude Oil to suddenly attack and sustain prices above 73.000 USD may prove difficult in the short-term.
While behavioral sentiment seemingly builds in U.S equities, U.S Treasury yields decline, the price of WTI Crude Oil has not experienced a run higher of any significance. The shift towards a belief a weaker USD is going to spark more demand in the near-term may be speculatively too optimistic for short-term traders. The holiday season which will decrease trading in all assets, including WTI Crude Oil, by the end of this week.
Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 68.900 to 76.400 USD.
Traders need to stay alert in WTI Crude Oil this week. The ability to recently climb higher was intriguing. Early trading on Monday and Tuesday may set the tone for things to come the remainder of the week, but as volumes decrease with the Christmas holiday approaching and traders starting to disappear for vacations, price volatility will be affected. The lows of last week were not surprising considering the trend downwards in WTI Crude Oil which has been in effect since late September, this when the commodity was near the 94.000 USD value. The move higher late last week may come under suspicion.
Bullish traders may believe upside is going to develop in WTI Crude Oil over the mid-term, but they should be careful about conditions which continue to look rather troubling short-term. If Crude Oil can move above last week’s high and challenge 73.000 this would be intriguing, but the ability to sustain prices over 73.000 and then start to flirt with 74.000 USD may prove difficult. Traders should use risk management wisely in the coming days to protect against volatility caused by the recent move higher and potential reactions.
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