Hong Kong
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US President Donald Trump’s request to delay a high-stakes summit with China’s leader Xi Jinping could work in Beijing’s favor, according to several Chinese sources familiar with the matter, potentially allowing both parties to sidestep complications related to the US’ war with Iran – China’s most important strategic partner in the Middle East.

And if Trump loses his grip on the conflict that’s already threatening oil supplies and global economic growth, it could strengthen China’s hand in talks – if they go ahead at all –– according to experts.

Beijing never formally confirmed the highly anticipated visit, and has yet to provide an official response to the proposed “5–to-6 week” delay. Trump said this week that “China is fine with” delaying the meeting that, according to the White House, had previously been scheduled for March 31 to April 2.

Beijing has remained vague on the delay – possibly giving itself more room to maneuver – but its tone remains positive, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian saying Wednesday that leaders’ summits play an “irreplaceable” role in guiding the bilateral relationship.

Behind the scenes, however, there remains caution. The summit may still “not necessarily happen as planned,” with the possibility either China or the US decides to pull out of talks, according to two Chinese sources familiar with the matter, speaking under the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivities surrounding the meeting.

“If the war in Iran causes major casualties of Chinese citizens, or major damage of Chinese assets in the region, then Trump would not be able to come,” said a source, describing one of Beijing’s apparent red lines.

The meeting has been positioned as a critical opportunity for both sides to reset the relationship between the world’s two foremost economic and military powers.

During a closely watched press conference one week into the Iran war, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi touted 2026 as a “pivotal one for China-US relations,” in response to CNN’s question on the potential impact of the military conflict on Trump’s planned visit. His comments were widely interpreted as signaling the government’s commitment to the upcoming meeting.

China had been closely monitoring the situation around Iran before the conflict and did not expect the US to launch the attack ahead of the planned Xi-Trump summit in March, the sources said.

Trump’s proposed delay is seen as dealing China a stronger hand, according to experts, who said it likely reveals something of the Trump administration’s thinking as to when the war will end.

“The longer the war drags on, the greater Trump’s sense of frustration becomes, and his weakness would become even more apparent. Consequently, when dealing with China, he would find himself in yet another disadvantageous position,” said Wu Xinbo, director at the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

“We will see if Trump has many cards left by then, so it’s better for us to wait a bit rather than act too soon,” said Wu, who is also a key member at China’s Foreign Ministry’s Foreign Policy Advisory Committee.

Some in Beijing say Trump enters these talks from an already weakened position following the US Supreme Court’s ruling striking down his sweeping emergency tariffs in February. His surprise war with Iran has drawn mixed responses at home, and after repeated promises that it’ll be over “soon,” a prolonged campaign could erode his popularity with the US electorate.

“His plan was to wrap things up quickly, but in the end, even after all this time, he still hasn’t been able to resolve it and has gotten bogged down in it,” Wu added.

China, along with the rest of the world, may suffer economically from the war – but it also faces a chance to reap political benefits, say experts.

The war has offered Beijing a golden opportunity to position itself as a reliable and peace-loving alternative global leader when the Gulf nations and Europe have grown increasingly wary of an unpredictable US administration.

“A lot of countries around the world are now rating China as a more reliable partner than the US. Now that doesn’t mean that China necessarily is a more reliable partner, but rather that changes in the US have made people perceive (it as) so,” said Rana Mitter, an expert in US-Asia relations at Harvard Kennedy School. “And that’s something that China can and will, I think, use in the period around the summit and afterwards.”

For many Chinese diplomats who work behind the scenes, preparing for a summit between Xi and Trump is a complex and challenging undertaking.

Talking points should be hashed out months in advance, and minor phrasing on official readouts involves tough negotiation. Even the smallest detail, like how many steps Xi walks to shake hands with Trump during photo opportunities, will be strictly planned.

Preparations for the summit were considered “insufficient,” and its delay has likely caused some relief, according to Wu with Fudan University.

“The Trump administration’s approach to preparing for this visit to China — in terms of the process and execution — differs from that of previous US administrations,” said Wu.

Delegations led by China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Commerce Secretary Scott Bessent wrapped up talks in Paris this week to lay the groundwork for the summit. But diplomatic protocol ahead of a presidential visit to China usually sees either the US secretary of state or the national security advisor make a preparatory trip too, and that did not happen.

“I think delaying the visit a bit would give both sides more time to negotiate and prepare, which could lead to a better outcome for the visit,” said Wu.

The most likely path for US-China relations is continued competition with periodic efforts at stabilization, according to Neil Thomas, a research fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.

“Both sides still have reasons to keep the relationship from spinning out of control, and the delay rather than cancellation of the Trump-Xi meeting suggests neither wants to abandon summit diplomacy,” said Thomas.

However, he added, the relationship is always subject to external shocks, which can easily throw bilateral diplomacy off course.

The Iran war could add a huge element of uncertainty to the US-China relationship. China’s Foreign Minister Wang has called it “a war that should never have happened,” but Beijing has been cautious to avoid being seen to favor either side.

“China may adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach, especially if it feels that its economy will be resilient to a global economic shock,” said Charles Austin Jordan, a senior research analyst specializing in China practice at consulting firm Rhodium Group in Washington, DC.

“But if that confidence wavers, or if Xi evaluates that the conflict has weakened Trump’s negotiating position, it may ultimately drive Beijing to be bolder in its approach to the US,” said Jordan.