For two consecutive years, there was no relegation fight in the Premier League.

White flags were waved weeks in advance and fates were accepted by clubs unable to compete in the elite division of English football. Luton Town’s 26 points (from the 114 available) in 2023-24 was as good as it got for any of the six teams who headed straight back down to the Championship they’d left 12 months earlier.

This season is sure to be different.

For all it is possible to conclude that Wolverhampton Wanderers have already lost their battle to remain a Premier League team, and Burnley too, given their own chasm to bridge, even after Wednesday’s win at Crystal Palace, there is congestion building above the presumably doomed duo.

A West Ham United revival has seen them collect 10 points from five games, drawing in rivals who once looked untroubled by the fears of relegation. Suddenly, it all got interesting at the foot of the Premier League table.

Some big clubs have big concerns as they come around the season’s final bend. Any fall to the second tier will be hard for those teams currently in the frame, but just how damaging would it be in each case?

18th: West Ham United

Points: 24 (Goal difference -17)

It is 15 years since West Ham’s most recent relegation to the Championship, and their world has changed markedly in that time.

A move from Upton Park to the London Stadium was designed to see them join the top flight’s establishment, and they do now perform consistently as one of European football’s top 20 money-making clubs.

A return to the second division, though, would bring huge ramifications.

Broadcast revenues — money awarded from the Premier League — amounted to 57 per cent of their income last season. There was £131million ($178.5m) of TV money banked courtesy of finishing 14th in May, but parachute payments for a first year back in the Championship would be in the region of £49m, with EFL TV money then bumping that up to roughly £55m.

That drop-off is, obviously, enormous and would likely ensure West Ham’s revenues were almost halved as a second-tier club again, once you allow for the inevitable reductions in commercial and matchday revenues.

They have at least made provisions with a wage bill that had climbed up to £175million last season, according to Deloitte’s research for the Football Money League. That accounted for 74 per cent of turnover but, as previously reported by The Athletic, there are 50 per cent wage reductions written into contracts to limit the damage.

There is also the chance to dismiss Nuno Espirito Santo as head coach without compensation in the event of relegation.

The London Stadium, too, is unlikely to be an onerous financial burden. West Ham’s annual rent, currently low at £4million, will halve in the wake of relegation, softening the almost inevitable fall in crowds that currently average 62,453.

Dubious recruitment, however, has left West Ham with limited assets they could sell — the most common tactic for a relegated club to restore financial calm. Beyond their England international captain Jarrod Bowen, it is slim pickings now that Brazil midfielder Lucas Paqueta has moved on.

West Ham need these closing months to go well.

Wage bill: £175m (per Deloitte Football Money League for 2024-25)
Squad value: £295m (all figures taken from Transfermarkt)

17th: Nottingham Forest

Points: 27 (GD -13)

What a difference 12 months makes. Forest were on course for the Champions League at the end of last winter, but now find themselves searching for their fourth head coach in a year after ditching Sean Dyche in the early hours of Thursday.

This was not part of Evangelos Marinakis’ plan as their owner. Forest took chances coming this far, breaching the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) in 2022-23, and have since had to walk a financial tightrope when trading.

Their most recent accounts, covering the 2023-24 Premier League campaign, recorded an operating loss of £77million, with an eventual profit entirely reliant on player sales of £100m. Over two-thirds of the club’s income came from central broadcast revenues in that campaign, and that ratio is likely to have been higher again when finishing seventh last season.

Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis watches his side draw 0-0 with Wolves on Wednesday (Mike Egerton/PA Images via Getty Images)

This season is forecast to become Forest’s most lucrative after returning to European football in the Europa League and advancing to the knockout phase, beginning next week against Fenerbahce of Turkey, but relegation would inevitably complicate long-term redevelopment plans for their City Ground stadium.

Funding the proposals that could lift capacity to 52,000 would be far tougher to meet as a Championship club. Leeds United have been a case study in point, delaying plans to spruce up Elland Road until a Premier League return was secured after their 2023 relegation.

If there are aces up Forest’s sleeve to ride out the storm of relegation, it is the players in their squad who would inevitably be courted if they went down. England internationals Morgan Gibbs-White and Elliot Anderson could be sold on for profits, as would Brazilian defender Murillo. Cashing in on any two of those three, replicating a tactic of Ipswich Town when moving on Liam Delap and Omari Hutchinson after their relegation last summer, would be one solution to fund the shortfalls.

Marinakis, too, has shown himself to be among the game’s most supportive owners. In the years between his arrival in 2017 and the most recent accounts in June 2024, the Greek tycoon had invested north of £170million in Forest. Much of that was when they were a Championship club, indicating a willingness to offer financial support.

Wage bill: £166m (per 2023-24 accounts)
Squad value: £514m

16th: Tottenham Hotspur

Points: 29 (GD -1)

Thomas Frank is no more, sacked as head coach on Wednesday morning, but Tottenham’s relegation worries are increasingly deep-rooted. For all they have performed admirably in reaching the last 16 of the Champions League, a dismal domestic run has dragged them to within five points of the bottom three.

There are enough favourable fixtures remaining to suggest Spurs will eventually snap out of it, but the impact of a first relegation since the 1970s on a club of their size would be the great unknown.

If broadly mirroring last season, Spurs would stand to generate in the region of £600million during their dismal 2025-26 campaign. The highest recorded revenue for a relegated club previously was Leeds United with £190m in 2022-23. Bad things are not supposed to happen to teams with such resources. There is no modern precedent.

Relegation would be a leap into the unknown for Tottenham Hotspur (Catherine Ivill – AMA/Getty Images)

Tottenham’s financial frugality at least ensures their fall might not be as heavy as some in the Premier League.

They had the division’s seventh-largest wage bill in 2024-25 at just below the £250million mark, according to figures released for the Deloitte Football Money League last month — not an extraordinary sum when considering commercial income alone covered that and more, but one that is more than twice the figure ever seen in the Championship.

There would be exits from the squad in the event of relegation, of course, but it is unclear just what provisions have been built into player contracts.

Tottenham’s booming commercial enterprise is not entirely reliant on footballing success, at least. Their modern home hosts NFL fixtures and concerts, ensuring central distributions from the Premier League accounted for less than 29 per cent of overall revenue.

None of that is to say that Spurs would not encounter turbulence as a Championship club. Matchday revenue would likely fall, along with sponsorship opportunities. The question that can only be answered outside the top tier is: by how much?

Then there is the intangible damage done to image. Can Tottenham continue to consider themselves a Big Six club if they are in the second division?

Wage bill: £249m (per Deloitte Football Money League for 2024-25)
Squad value: £763m

15th: Leeds United

Points: 30 (GD -9)

This is not Leeds’ first rodeo. Relegated from the Premier League three years ago, their business model was durable enough to hold together for two seasons in the Championship before they won promotion as title winners last May.

Manager Daniel Farke’s side are showing enough to suggest they can finish above the relegation places, but their six-point advantage over West Ham takes on a different complexion when knowing the two teams will meet at the London Stadium on the season’s final day, May 24. Nobody at Elland Road will want to see the anxiety extend to that point; not when so much is on the line.

Leeds have aspirations to become more than they have been in the past two decades, including rebuilding their home to become a 53,000-capacity stadium. Planning permission for that was granted last month and “major construction activity” is scheduled to begin at the end of the season.

That work will commence regardless of the division Leeds end up in for 2026-27, but big stadium developments are much easier to undertake as a Premier League club.

Elland Road erupts after Jayden Bogle scores against Nottingham Forest (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Leeds, in theory, will be able to cope under the ownership of 49ers Enterprises. Their commercial activity fell by just 10 per cent when last relegated, a far smaller drop than most, while matchday revenues even climbed year-on-year when returning to the Championship.

They have not splurged, either. A net spend of about £90million this season was significantly less than that of fellow promoted side Sunderland and the club’s previous relegation, when annual wages fell from £146m to £84m, would suggest they will have provisions in place to again cut costs.

Leeds, as stated, have been down the relegation road before in recent times and bounced back, but having it happen again this season would be an almighty stumble in pursuit of some big long-term plans.

Wage bill: £84m (per 2023-24 accounts in the Championship)
Squad value: £279m

14th: Brighton & Hove Albion

Points: 31 (GD 0)

The bookmakers consider relegation for Brighton in May a long shot, and understandably so. They have averaged 57 points in each of the last three Premier League seasons, and all logic would suggest they will have enough to escape this unexpected scrap. But, and it might end up being a big one, there is work to be done if they are to ensure a decade of progress is not undone.

Brighton’s nine seasons in the Premier League have been transformational. Turnover peaked at £222million in 2023-24, an eight-fold increase on revenues when they were last a Championship club in 2016-17. They have been profitable, too. Wages have climbed as high as £146m but that has remained a more than manageable sum when complemented by a player-trading model which has seen them record a positive net spend, if only a tiny one, in the past five years.

Beleaguered Brighton head coach Fabian Hurzeler (Steven Paston/PA Images via Getty Images)

Brighton remain the club many others aspire to become and continue to hold assets, rather than liabilities, in their playing squad. Selling highly-rated midfielder Carlos Baleba alone would likely cover the shortfall in broadcast revenues if they became a second-division club again in three months’ time.

Then there is Tony Bloom, one of the Premier League’s longest-serving and most supportive owners. Since 2009, the lifelong Brighton fan has invested £494.4million in the club, and there is no evidence to suggest his enthusiasm for the project is waning.

Brighton, more than most mentioned in this article, would be well-equipped to ride out the storm in the Championship but nobody attached to the south-coast side wishes to see that theory tested.

Wage bill: £146m (per 2023-24 accounts)
Squad value: £444m

13th: Crystal Palace

Points: 32 (GD -4)

A disastrous 3-2 defeat at home to Burnley on Wednesday denied Palace removal from the draft version of this feature, even if the eight-point cushion between them and West Ham remains one to bring comfort. A difficult season at Selhurst Park, including a humiliating FA Cup exit as holders away to sixth-tier Macclesfield last month, could yet get worse.

Relegation would inevitably sting for a club who have never known it so good. Their turnover climbed up to £189million in 2023-24 and, according to Deloitte’s analysis, crept up north of £200m in a season that ended with victory in the FA Cup final. That was the 25th highest in world football.

A good run in the knockout rounds of the UEFA Conference League would add further income to this season, but Palace, more than most, rely heavily on Premier League distributions. Their broadcast revenue in 2023-24 was more than three-quarters of their turnover, and stripping much of that out in the Championship would leave holes to fill.

Brennan Johnson holds his head in his hands after Palace’s capitulation against Burnley (Jordan Pettitt/PA Images via Getty Images)

Recent seasons have typically seen Palace act as a cautious force in the transfer market, broadly spending what they recoup. This winter window, though, brought a gamble with close to £80million invested to sign Jorgen Strand Larsen and Brennan Johnson.

Relegation would inevitably see players go, and cashing in on the likes of Adam Wharton and Jean-Philippe Mateta, who almost left the club last month, would bring in significant funds to steady the financial landscape.

Palace do not want a run of 13 consecutive seasons in the Premier League to end here. Not when clubs such as Southampton, once famed for their trading model, can now be found mid-table in the Championship.

Wage bill: £134m (per 2023-24 accounts)
Squad value: £467m