The Premier League title is within touching distance for Liverpool, but how soon could they win it?

If there ever truly was a Premier League title race to begin with this season, it’s fair to say the past few weeks have been pivotal in practically destroying any remaining notion of jeopardy.

Ahead of Arsenal’s hosting of West Ham on 22 February, there was a sense of optimism surrounding the Gunners. They went into that game knowing they would close the gap at the top of the table to five points with a win, and Liverpool – who’d dropped points in two of their past three league games at that point – had a trip to Manchester City to look forward to the following day.

But Arsenal were beaten by the Hammers while Liverpool won at City, and the Gunners’ title chances – which, realistically, were already modest at best then, even with a game in hand – have since sunk without a trace.

Liverpool have strung together three wins on the bounce in the top flight, whereas Arsenal have taken two points from a possible nine over the same period.

Arne Slot’s men beat Southampton 3-1 on Saturday to go 16 points clear at the summit, and Arsenal’s 1-1 draw at Manchester United a day later meant Mikel Arteta’s side finished the weekend further adrift than they started it.

While Arsenal do still have a game in hand, even the most ardent Gunners fans will likely accept their hopes are over, with it just a matter of when – not if – Liverpool will win the title.

So, to that end…

When Can Liverpool Win the Title?

First of all, let’s tackle this in the simplest way possible.

With Arsenal having taken 55 points from 28 games, they have 10 fixtures left and therefore can only reach a maximum of 85 points even if they win each of their remaining matches.

Liverpool have 70 points, so Slot’s side know they’ll secure their 20th English top-flight title and second Premier League crown as long as they take 16 points from their final nine matches, regardless of what Arsenal do.

A better goal difference to the tune of 14 gives Liverpool a further advantage as well, though if there was to be a situation that brought such a tie breaker into the equation, it’d likely be because the Reds’ form had nosedived and Arsenal’s had become exceptional, so the deficit of 14 probably wouldn’t still be in place. But at this point, that’s a pretty wild hypothetical.

So, while the ‘when’ of it all is actually quite difficult to answer because it obviously depends on both teams’ results, in the simplest terms, Liverpool know 16 points from their final nine games will clinch them the title.

How Quickly Could Liverpool Win Another 16 Points?

Any excitement about getting the title wrapped up in the next few weeks needs to be quashed. Liverpool don’t actually play again in the league until 2 April – but of course they could already have one trophy secure by then as they face Newcastle in the EFL Cup final on Sunday.

After the international break that follows this weekend, Liverpool have a run that could throw up a few potential banana skins.

They have Everton at home in the Merseyside derby straight after the internationals, followed by a trip to Fulham. Both of those fixtures could offer a challenge as they drew their first games against both earlier this season, though they’ll expect to beat West Ham (H) and Leicester (A) after that.

Liverpool then host Tottenham on 27 April; that would be their fifth game from now. So, if they were to win all four games up to that point, beating Spurs would see the Reds reach 85 points.

Assuming, for argument’s sake, that Arsenal win their next six matches as well (that’s including their game in hand vs Chelsea next weekend), Liverpool would still need an extra point to reach the magic number of 86.

That would make the Reds’ trip to Chelsea the game where it could all end. Liverpool go to Stamford Bridge on 3 May, with Arsenal hosting Bournemouth on that matchday.

But assuming Arsenal rack up six wins on the trot is fanciful given their form of late, having not won any of their last three league games, so the signs point to Liverpool wrapping it up before May.

When Is the Earliest Liverpool Can Win the Title?

If Liverpool keep winning, the ‘title race’ will only stretch into May if Arsenal also go on a run of victories of their own.  

Considering none of the four teams directly below Liverpool in the table have managed more than three wins in their past five outings, it’s highly likely the mathematical points target will actually come down from 86.

In fact, it’s possible that Liverpool’s lead could be insurmountable as early as 12 April. It would require the Reds to win their next two league games and Arsenal to lose their next three (Chelsea – H, Fulham – H, Everton – A) before also failing to beat Brentford on 12 April.  

In that scenario, Liverpool would actually win the title without even playing. Of course, this outcome is incredibly unlikely because it would also require the likes of Nottingham Forest, Manchester City and Chelsea to remain erratic enough to not overtake Arsenal and go second themselves.

Nevertheless, it is technically possible that Liverpool could be crowned champions as soon as just over a month from now.

When Are Liverpool Most Likely to Win the Title?

Okay, you’ll have to grant us a little creative license here. There isn’t, strictly speaking, an answer to that, but we can estimate/speculate.

Across Arsenal’s 28 games this season, they’ve averaged 1.96 points per game, whereas Liverpool have averaged 2.41 over 29 matches.

If they continue at their current rates for the rest of the season, Liverpool are on course to have 82 points at the end of Matchday 34, while Arsenal would be on 66.8 – so, let’s call it 67.

With four matches remaining after that, Arsenal would have a deficit of 15 points to make up with a maximum of 12 points on offer.

Therefore, on the basis of points-per-game averages, Liverpool win the Premier League title on 27 April against Tottenham. 

Do Liverpool Still Have to Play Arsenal?

Liverpool will be eager to wrap the title up as early as possible, obviously. Why wouldn’t they? But part of that will come down to the fact they are due to play Arsenal in their third-last game of the season on Matchday 36.

While most might be expecting the title to be long wrapped up by then, it’s not impossible that Liverpool’s form suffers. Let’s not forget, they are also still in the Champions League, and assuming they get past Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday, the Reds will most likely get a quarter-final tie they’ll expect to progress from with either Aston Villa or Club Brugge awaiting them.

If the fixture congestion combines with a few tricky domestic games to cause something of a wobble, hosting an Arsenal team who smell blood wouldn’t be ideal. The game would come the weekend after the Champions League semi-final second leg, which could also see Liverpool face Arsenal.

Again, this game only really becomes relevant if Liverpool’s form generally tails off and Arsenal’s improves dramatically; but who’s to say the Reds can’t lose three games beforehand, while the Gunners find their groove?

Unlikely? Sure. Impossible? Of course not.

Those still holding out hope of a proper title race will be desperate for such an eventuality to inject a bit of excitement and drama into proceedings at the top of the table ahead of the final weeks of the campaign.

But, if we’re being realistic, all signs point to Liverpool wrapping things up quite quickly. After all, the Opta supercomputer has them winning the title in 99.5% of the latest 10,000 season simulations.

While some will be marking that 3 May date with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on their calendars, if Arsenal can’t suddenly turn their form on its head, then the Reds will secure the title in April.

There’s still work to do for the Reds, but Arsenal keep doing them favours and there’s every chance that’ll remain the case.

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