The stock market has climbed over the course of the presidential campaign, raising questions about whether the rally will continue depending upon which candidate wins: Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump.
The S&P 500 has soared more than 20% this year, repeating a feat that the index achieved in 2023. The Nasdaq has jumped 23% this year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 14%.
Over the full span of the next administration, the market will likely move higher whether the nation elects Harris or Trump, experts told ABC News. However, they added, each candidate’s policies could favor different types of stocks while posing unique risks.
Here’s what to know about what a win by Harris or Trump could mean for the stock market:
What would a Trump presidency mean for the stock market?
Trump has vowed to extend the corporate tax cuts signed into law during his first term when they begin to phase out in 2025. If approved by Congress and signed into law, the tax cuts would accompany an anticipated deregulatory agenda taken up by federal agencies within the Trump administration.
That combination of low corporate tax rates and loose regulation would likely bolster corporate profits and propel the stock market higher, experts said.
“Taxes do have consequences,” Peter Morici, a professor emeritus at the University of Maryland’s School of Business, told ABC News. “With the Trump administration, it will be like a cork coming out.”
Trump policies would favor sectors such as oil and gas as well as artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, firms focused on renewable energy could suffer if Trump undermines financial incentives enacted under Biden, some experts said.
“The Inflation Reduction Act was a big deal for solar and electric vehicle stocks,” Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, told ABC News. “Who knows what will happen if that policy is walked back?”
Trump Media & Technology Group, the Trump-owned parent company of social media platform Truth Social, could rise in value if Trump takes office. Shares of the company have more than doubled in price over the past month as the former president has improved his standing in some polls.
However, while Trump’s policy proposals could boost the stock market, they also may threaten market performance, some experts said.
On the campaign trail, Trump has promised tariffs as high as 20% on all imported goods. Economists widely expect that such a policy would raise consumer prices. Trump has also voiced plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, which some economists say could cause a labor shortage.
Last month, Trump suggested invoking the military to tamp down what he described as the “enemy from within.”
“If he starts using the military domestically and imposes a 20% tariff and becomes a draconian, anti-democratic figure, it will weigh terribly on the stock market,” Morici said.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Oct. 22, 2024 in New York City.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
What would a Harris presidency mean for the stock market?
Stock prices would likely increase under Harris, as they have under President Joe Biden, but a potential hike in corporate taxes and robust regulatory enforcement could limit the gains, some experts said.
Corporations currently face a federal tax rate of 21%, which Harris aims to raise to 28%. Such a tax hike could hinder corporate profits and take some fuel out of the stock market, Reena Aggarwal, a professor of finance and director of the Georgetown Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy, told ABC News. But, she added, it remains unclear whether the policy will ultimately become law.
“I don’t think this can happen that easily,” Aggarwal said. “It takes a long time.”
Aggarwal pointed to renewable technology as a sector that would benefit from policies under the Harris administration.
When asked about how the stock market would fare under Harris, Cox said the outcome would “come down to interest rates and earnings.”
The Federal Reserve typically raises interest rates in an effort to cool the economy and rein in inflation, but the policy often places downward pressure on stock prices.
The Harris campaign has put forward proposals to slow price increases for everything from groceries to prescription drugs to homes. Those plans include a federal ban on price-gouging and a focus on market concentration that the Biden administration says triggers high costs for consumers.
In the end, long-term stock market performance will likely depend on economic forces over which Harris, or any president, will exert limited control, Cox added.
“I don’t think Kamala Harris could enact changes that have long-term effects on the stock market,” Cox said. “If you’re a long-term investor, politics do not matter for your portfolio.”
