Football writer Alex Keble highlights the hot topics and tactical lessons from the Premier League season so far, including:

– Arsenal’s control of the title race leaves them in a battle with themselves
– Man City haven’t quite clicked – but threaten to do so any minute
– Aston Villa’s stat-defying title charge leaves breathing room for the cups
– Chelsea and Man Utd manager changes set up a compelling UCL race
– Liverpool and Spurs round off a difficult season for most of the ‘‘big six’’
– Brentford and Newcastle are emerging from an ultra-congested table
– Wild tactical swings, unsettling Spurs and Forest, show the benefits of consistency
– Proper No 9s are back in fashion across the league
– Tiredness in the legs is beginning to affect early-season underdogs
– West Ham are in danger in widening relegation battle

Arsenal’s control of the title race leaves them in a battle with themselves

The nervous energy that rippled around Emirates Stadium on Thursday night during periods of Liverpool possession threw into relief a theme we always knew would define Arsenal’s season.

Handling the pressure of a title challenge is extremely difficult for any club looking to end a long drought – and it will be no different for Arsenal.

There is a reason why almost every first-time Premier League winner did so with a huge points-gap to second, from Leicester City in 2015/16 to Liverpool in 2019/20 to Chelsea in 2004/05, and why the only exception is Manchester City, who on the final day in 2011/12 were losing at home to relegation-threatened Queens Park Rangers with 88 minutes on the clock.

A big gap is generally needed to stop the pressure from getting too much.

What we’ve learnt from 21 rounds of the 2025/26 Premier League season is that Arsenal have all the tools – tactically and technically, from the manager to a newly-deep bench – to go all the way.

What we cannot yet know is if they have the steel to do it. There have already been quite a few moments this season when Arsenal have endured nervous and emotional games that, though ending in victory, contrasted to the way Man City have calmly breezed through so many of their wins.

But Man City’s three consecutive draws changes things, because Arsenal’s best chance of winning the Premier League is to build up a healthy lead that takes some of the tension away.

Even if they cannot do that, Arsenal’s biggest challenge is not Man City or Aston Villa. It is themselves.

Man City haven’t quite clicked – but threaten to do so any minute

Three consecutive draws has changed the landscape for Man City, who before a surprising drop-off in form – defined, most of all, by Erling Haaland’s goal drought – had started to look familiarly ominous.

This is normally the time of year Pep Guardiola’s side click into gear and begin to ease through matches, put together a huge winning streak, and make fools of anyone who predicted their demise in November.

It could still happen. Haaland’s penalty against Brighton & Hove Albion on Wednesday ended a three-game goalless run and although City didn’t win that is good news for a club reliant on his goalscoring.

Haaland’s shot placement map 2025/26

And Man City are only three point worse off than they were at this stage in 2023/24, the last time they won the title. That year they ended with 91 points, winning 45 points from their final 17 games, or 15 wins and two defeats.

We know Man City are capable of that. But Guardiola’s side have little room for error.

Aston Villa’s stat-defying title charge leaves breathing room for the cups

Then there’s Villa, who continue to dramatically defy the statistical trends in their unexpected title challenge.

If we’ve learnt one thing from their run it is to hold lightly to faith in underlying data. According to Opta’s expected league table, calculated using Expected Goals (xG), Villa should be 13th with 25 points, 18 fewer than in reality.

Unai Emery’s side are simply taking their chances, scoring brilliant goals from range, and benefiting from elite shot-stopping from Emiliano Martinez.

It might mean Villa eventually fall away slightly, although the alternative argument is that Villa have ridden their luck to get here – and are now just hitting their stride.

If they can get to within touching distance without being at their best, then performing at their top level over the next five months could see the unthinkable happen.

Even if Villa do drop off, their huge buffer in the top four means they will be able to turn their attention fully to the UEFA Europa League and FA Cup later in the campaign.

Chelsea & Man Utd manager changes set up a compelling UCL race

The departures of Enzo Maresca and Ruben Amorim have shaken things up in the top half and given us a new perspective on the 2025/26 Premier League season: the battle for UEFA Champions League spots is going to be a compelling watch.

It feels unlikely the current top four will be moved out of their position but there is a good chance fifth place with mean Champions League qualification.

Liam Rosenior takes charge of a Chelsea team only four points off fifth while Manchester United are only three points behind.

Given that, in theory, both clubs have more resources and better players than the two teams ahead of them, Brentford and Newcastle United, the two clubs with new head coaches will feel they are in a straight head-to-head.

It is a monumental fight for both Chelsea and Man Utd, neither of whom can really afford to miss out on Champions League money, although for United especially getting back in Europe’s premier competition feels essential to invest in whoever comes next at Old Trafford.

Liverpool & Spurs round off a difficult season for most of the ‘‘big six’’

The 2025/26 season has been almost unique in the unhappiness of the ‘‘big six’’. Arguably only Arsenal are satisfied with how things have gone so far, with Man City stuttering and Chelsea and Man Utd so disappointed they’ve made a change in the dugout.

Liverpool have recovered well with a run of 10 matches unbeaten in all competitions, and as Arne Slot highlighted on Thursday evening, his players have proved to themselves that they can compete anywhere and with anyone.

That stands them in good stead for the second half of the season, especially in the Champions League, and yet there can be no denying Liverpool have under-performed by falling so far from the top of the table.

A lot of pundits are blaming the disruption of so many new signings, but it is likely that the death of Diogo Jota has also had a big impact on a club in mourning.

Tottenham Hotspur are mired in the bottom half of the table and finding the adaptation to Thomas Frank’s football difficult. They are only five points off the European places, but nobody can deny Spurs fans are disappointed with how things are going.

So, that’s four – arguably five – of the big six playing below their level. That doesn’t happen very often.

Brentford & Newcastle are emerging from an ultra-congested table

For most of the 2025/26 season so far, the Premier League table has been so congested as to make little sense, and although there are still an enormous number of clubs technically chasing Europe (the gap from fifth to 15th is just seven points) things are beginning to settle.

It ought not to be a surprise that Newcastle United are rising. Their three consecutive victories represents order being restored for a club adapting back to Champions League football and recovering from a disruptive transfer window that saw Alexander Isak leave on Deadline Day.

Brentford’s emergence was far less predictable. In fact, after losing head coach Frank, Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa and captain Christian Norgaard in the summer, Brentford were widely tipped for relegation, but novice head coach Keith Andrews has done a stunning job.

Particularly with the emergence of striker Igor Thiago, who has taken the league by storm, scoring 16 Premier League goals and setting the record for goals from a Brazilian in a single season. 

What we’ve learnt, with the Bees in fifth, is not to pre-judge inexperienced coaches – and to trust the process and succession planning that clubs like Brentford have in place.

Wild tactical swings, unsettling Spurs and Forest, show the benefits of consistency

As Man Utd seek a new tactical direction there are a couple of stories in the bottom half of the Premier League table that exemplify why consistency in strategy is preferred in most boardrooms.

Brentford’s transition from Frank to Andrews shows the benefits of sticking to a tactical idea from one head coach to the next.

On the other side of the equation, swapping Ange Postecoglou for Frank has led to an uncomfortable first half of the season for Spurs, while at Nottingham Forest, the wild swings from Nuno to Ange to Sean Dyche has similarly created problems.

That’s not to say big tactical changes should not be made, nor that it isn’t a good idea to upgrade to expansive football or reinsert some pragmatism if and when attacking football spirals out of control.

But Forest and Spurs appear to send a warning to boardrooms across the Premier League.

Proper No 9s are back in fashion across the league

It wasn’t too long ago that strikers were dying out, or at least the idea of needing a goalscoring No 9 was becoming outdated.

But they have made a serious comeback, first in the form of Haaland and now up and down the division.

Fulham’s surge into the top half is thanks, in part, to Raul Jimenez, who has scored three goals in his last five games in a traditional target-man role.

Similarly, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is going through a purple patch (eight goals in nine matches) that has propelled Leeds United clear of the relegation zone, while Danny Welbeck has been Brighton’s best player.

Elsewhere Thiago, Nick Woltemade and Junior Kroupi have been valuable additions to the league.

Top PL goalscorers 2025/26

It’s hard to find any mid-table Premier League club no longer reliant on a star striker, and those without one are notable for what they’re missing.

Everton are perhaps the most prominent example.

Summer signings Jack Grealish and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall have taken them to another level this season but David Moyes’ side would be much higher in the table if Thierno Barry (three goals in 21 Premier League games) or Beto (two goals in 21 games) could find form.

Tiredness in the legs is beginning to affect early-season underdogs

The gradual separation of that middle block of clubs is partly the result of a few early frontrunners beginning to drop off over winter as the fixtures pile up.

Crystal Palace have gone eight games without a win, Sunderland are on a five-match winless run, and Bournemouth’s victory on Wednesday night ended an 11-game sequence without a victory.

What all three clubs have in common is a feeling of exhaustion taking hold after a fast and furious start to the season.

Bournemouth’s all-out pressing game under Andoni Iraola has taken its toll, while Palace and Sunderland have lost their spark after losing players to the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON).

There is plenty of time for all three to rise into the top half again, and maybe even into the European spots.

But it’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that, with the league being a marathon and not a sprint, the wealthier clubs with deeper benches are beginning to rise above exhausted rivals.

West Ham are in danger in widening relegation battle

Patterns are forming up and down the league, then, and nowhere more so than at the bottom end of the table where West Ham United’s defeat to Forest on Tuesday opened an alarming seven-point gap between 17th and 18th.

West Ham are clearly in big trouble, their form not improving at all since Nuno Espirito Santo was appointed. They won three points from five matches (0.6 per game) before he arrived and have won 11 points from 16 since (0.7 per game).

Burnley have fought valiantly, as Scott Parker often points out, but they have now won just three points from their last 12 Premier League games and are eight points adrift.

Things are looking even worse for Wolves, of course, who even after winning five points from three games are anchored to the bottom.

All three clubs in the relegation zone have an extremely difficult job on their hands.