Feb. 3, 2026, 6:03 a.m. ET
- A Democrat flipped a Republican seat in a Texas special election, a district Trump won by 17 points in 2024.
- The losing Republican candidate called the loss a “wake-up call” for the party ahead of the 2026 midterms.
- Recent polls show former President Trump’s approval rating is net negative, with a majority of Americans disapproving of his job performance.
As we barrel toward the 2026 midterm elections, a special election in Texas reinforced suspected trouble on the horizon for Republicans.
Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a Republican seat in a special election for the Texas state Senate on Jan. 31. Trump won the Fort Worth area district by 17 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
Trump had backed Republican activist and entrepreneur Leigh Wambsganss in the race, but later tried to distance himself saying he wasn’t involved.
“I’m not on the ballot,” Trump told reporters on Feb. 1. “So, you don’t know whether or not it’s transferable.”
The party with a leader in the White House often loses in the midterm elections, a dynamic which Trump has bemoaned as he has called on Republican lawmakers to keep control of Congress.
The Texas special election follows several state and local elections where Democrats have overperformed. The midterm elections are also seen as a way for voters give their say on how the country is being run.
The losing Republican candidate said the Texas loss is a “wake-up call” for local and national Republicans, Reuters reported.
A Pew Research Center poll out Jan. 29 found only 27% of U.S. adults support Trump’s policy prescriptions, down from 35% a year earlier. A poll published by Fox News on Jan. 28 found a 54% majority thinks the country is worse off today than it was a year ago.
What is Trump’s approval rating? See the latest polls:
What is Donald Trump‘s average approval rating?
Averages calculated by the New York Times and RealClearPolitics aggregators show Trump’s approval rating has been net negative since the spring of his first year back in office. From April to November, it stayed relatively stable until dropping suddenly, rebounding slightly in December, and dropping again earlier this year.
RealClearPolitics graphics show 42.6% approve of Trump’s job performance and 54.6% disaprove as of Feb. 2. The lowest term approval came on Jan. 16 at 42.2%. The worst net approval rating, the difference between those who approve and those who disapprove, came days later on Jan. 20 at -13.2 percentage points.
The New York Times aggregator shows 41% approve of Trump’s job performance as of Feb. 2. It is the lowest of this term per The Times, but he first reached it on Nov. 12.
Fox News poll: 59% voters think ICE is too aggressive
The Fox News poll conducted Jan. 23-26 by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research found 44% of respondents approve of Trump’s job performance, unchanged since December. The overall poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
The survey also found voters think Trump is focusing on the wrong things. Seven out of 10 think he is not spending enough time on the economy, according to Fox News.
Border security is the only issue where Trump receives a net positive approval rating (52%), according to the poll. On immigration, his approval is underwater at 45%-55%.
The poll also asked if the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency was being too aggressive in its efforts. Fifty-nine percent said ICE is too aggressive, compared to 17% who said it was not aggressive enough, and 24% who said it was about right, according to Fox News.
Pew: Confidence slipping among Republicans
A Pew Research Center survey conducted Jan. 20-26 found Trump received a 37% approval rating. Pew surveyed 8,512 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.
The poll found that fewer voters are confident in Trump’s leadership across several qualities. The poll found 34% of Americans are extremely or very confident in Trump’s leadership skills. Roughly half say they are not too, or not at all, confident in Trump’s leadership skills, mental fitness to do the job, or physical fitness to do the job.
Republican confidence in other qualities, like acting ethically in office and respecting the country’s democratic values, has declined since last February, according to Pew.
Contributing: Kate Perez, Phillip M. Bailey, USA TODAY
Kinsey Crowley is the Trump Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at KCrowley@usatodayco.com. Follow her onX (Twitter),Bluesky andTikTok.
