Webb:特朗普對等關稅可笑 「香港旅遊或可受惠美國客來買iPhone」 (18:44) – 20250403 – 即時財經新聞

David Webb表示,美國貿易代表辦公室用計算對方關稅的公式非常粗糙,以與每個國家或地區的商品貿易順差除以進口,如果該國幾乎不購買美國商品,那麼該公式會得出接近100%的數字,因此一些世界上最貧窮的國家,提供最低成本勞力製作最勞動密集型商品,如玩具、鞋子、服裝和成品電子產品,會被認為是「最嚴重犯規者」。

最大的關稅影響將集中在勞動密集型製造業國家,包括中國、越南、柬埔寨、泰國、馬來西亞、印尼、印度、巴基斯坦和孟加拉國。由於對這些國家的關稅水平都相當(約50%),美國進口商將無法找到替代選擇,或者至少無法迅速替代這些製造基地。因此,進口商對供應商的談判能力有限,只能支付關稅並提高向美國消費者收取的價格。

對於關稅能否讓製造業工作重回美國,David Webb認為並不能做到,因為即使有50%的關稅,在美國設立工廠生產運動鞋、襯衫、棒球帽或軟玩具也不會具有經濟效益,進口這些商品仍然會更便宜。即使是智能手機的製造,所需的勞動力也太多,無法在美國完成,因此美國消費者最終將承擔成本。另外,特別是對於可選消費品,更高的價格會影響美國消費者對這些產品的需求,例如在舊手機仍能正常使用時不會更換手機。

另一方面,來自美國需求減少,將影響來自受影響國家進口,除了不能彌補貿易逆差,也貧窮國家不能夠購買更多的美國商品。

David Webb認為,亞洲製造企業在很大程度對美國進口商有更大議價能力,除非是因可選購商品需求下降導致某些行業出現過剩產能,出口減少導致的貨幣影響可能會對價格有所幫助,因為它降低了以美元計算的勞動成本。

對於大額購買,David Webb認為還會出現其他有趣的影響,例如美國公民會更傾向於前往其他地區,特別那些銷售稅為零或較低的地區,購買可以攜帶或穿回美國的任何商品,「因此,香港旅遊業應該會因美國遊客來尋找下一部iPhone或運動鞋而受益」。

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