India’s total coffee production is forecast to decline in the 2025/26 market year (October through September), with total output expected to fall to the equivalent of 6 million 60-kilogram bags, down from 6.2 million bags the year prior, according to the latest USDA estimates.
Adverse weather conditions — mainly dry winter spells followed by excessive pre-monsoon rains in key regions — have disrupted flowering and fruit set, leading to reduced yields across both arabica and robusta crops.
At the same time, domestic consumption is forecast to rise to 1.4 million bags, driven primarily by demand for soluble coffee.
Farmgate prices have surged, with arabica parchment up 51% year-over-year and robusta cherry prices up 17%, reflecting tighter global supply and low inventories. Traders reported limited availability of unsold robusta in domestic markets, with firm demand supporting carryover stocks.
[Note: This is part of a series of DCN stories that will explore USDA FAS annual coffee reports. The information agency typically delivers more than a dozen country-level reports on the coffee sector, each coming from different authors and field offices, with predictions for the upcoming market year.]
Export Outlook
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Total exports are forecast at 5.99 million 60-kg bags, down from 6.21 million in 2024/25.
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Green bean exports: 3.56 million bags
Soluble exports: 2.42 million bags -
Top buyers: Italy, Germany, UAE and Russia.
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Year-to-date shipments (Oct–Jan) are down 5% compared to the previous year.
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Buyers in Europe are slowing purchases due to record-high prices and squeezed margins.
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Global demand for robusta remains strong, especially for espresso and instant blends.
Area and Planting Trends
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Planted area and harvested area remain at approximately 475,000 hectares and 432,000 hectares, respectively.
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Slight declines in both arabica and robusta harvested areas (–0.5%).
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Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu account for 77% of total planted area.
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Minor expansions observed in Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, and Northeastern India.
Weather Disruptions
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Karnataka: 82% rainfall deficit in January–February; 96% excess rain in March–April.
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Kerala: 66% deficit in winter rainfall; 68% excess in pre-monsoon rains.
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These fluctuations have hindered flowering and fruit development.
Domestic Consumption
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Forecast consumption: 1.4 million bags
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Per capita consumption remains low at 0.07 kilograms, but is rising.
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Domestic soluble manufacturers reported double-digit growth in the previous market year.
Imports and Stocks
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Total imports: 1.33 million bags, mostly green coffees for soluble processing.
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Major suppliers: Indonesia, Vietnam, Kenya, Uganda.
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Rupee depreciation and global price hikes may limit import growth.
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Opening stocks: 355,000 bags, held privately by growers and traders.
For complete data tables and year-over-year comparisons, see the full USDA Coffee Annual Report for India (May 2025).
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