(Bloomberg) — As the Iran war heads into a fifth week, Wall Street bank strategists have been touting trades that would pay off if a stock-market selloff is slow and steady.
BBVA recently recommended April Euro Stoxx 50 Index put spreads, citing market complacency even in the face of a US troop buildup, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. mentioned activity in over-the-counter volatility “knock-out” puts where protection evaporates if market swings exceed a certain level. Both kinds of strategies lower the cost of the option positions compared with just buying vanilla puts.
The lack of immediate macroeconomic shock has so far kept the crisis relatively contained as far as US indexes are concerned. However, the potential impact of a pickup in inflation on central bank policy and disruption of trade flows threaten to turn the decline into a more dramatic, longer-term selloff that elevates volatility for an extended period.
“The issue now isn’t whether investors are hedged, it’s how,” said Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB. “Many of the structures being used are designed for a grind lower, not a regime shift, which leaves the buy side implicitly short convexity if volatility gaps.”
Convexity trades — which capture outsized gains in options during volatility spikes — are falling somewhat out of favor given the speed at which market selloffs have recently reversed, leaving traders scant opportunity to cash in. For now, the perception that there are a number of potential offramps for US President Donald Trump to end the Iran conflict keeps strategists wary of recommending extreme downside hedges.
“We have seen decent activity in the grind lower trade — pricing parameters generally support trying to get short skew, short delta,” said Arnaud Jobert, JPMorgan’s global head of equities structuring and co-head of global strategic indexes. “We have seen trades in VKO puts and even putting a look-back feature on the VKO to smooth path dependency amid whipsawing markets.”
During Friday’s stock selloff, even as the Cboe Volatility Index closed above 30 for the first time since April, a large part of the increase was due to demand for S&P 500 Index calls by traders eyeing a rebound, according to Cboe Global Markets Inc.
This marks a shift from early 2025, when some derivatives strategists leaned toward financing VIX calls with S&P 500 puts. Although convexity performed better over Liberation Day, the protracted grind lower leading into the event rendered these strategies frustrating to hold.
But with the S&P 500 down nearly 9% from its January closing high and global benchmark oil prices holding above $100 a barrel, there are signs that some investors are positioning for a sharper, deeper slide.
