April 21, 2026, 3:01 a.m. ET
Virginia voters will have their say on April 21 in the nationwide redistricting battle President Donald Trump launched last year to alter the congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
If approved by voters, after having already cleared legal and administrative hurdles, the ballot referendum would temporarily change the boundaries of the state’s congressional districts. It would eliminate all but one Republican-leaning district in the Old Dominion State, changing the likely makeup of Virginia’s delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives from a current six-to-five Democratic split, to as many as a 10 Democrats.
If successful, that could give Democrats an edge in the battle for control of the House, which is currently divided 217-to-213 in favor of the GOP.
Trump arm-twisted Republican-led legislatures from Texas to Missouri to redraw their own maps in order to tilt their congressional delegations further towards Republicans — an unusual move, redistricting is typically once per decade after the Census.
The president attempted to persuade Republicans to get to the polls the night before the vote, saying that “the whole country is watching” in an April 20 tele-rally. He called Democrats “extreme” and the proposition a “shameful” attempt to “disenfranchise” Republican voters.
“If this referendum passes, it will silence Virginia conservatives,” Trump said.
The new maps up for consideration in Virginia would revert back to ones drawn by a 16-member bipartisan commission after the 2030 Census.
Polling shows the Virginia referendum will be much closer than similar campaigns in Democratic-led states such as California, where voters by a more than 2-to-1 margin supported altering their maps ahead of the fall campaigns.
Most surveys show a tight outcome close to or within the margin of error, with the “yes” side − those favoring the map changes − holding a slight edge. An April 15 poll by Quantus Insights showed about 51% of likely Virginia voters saying they would vote to approve the amendment versus roughly 47% saying they would reject it with an approximate 3% margin of error.
The state was graded by Princeton University‘s Gerrymandering Project as having some of the fairest congressional maps in the country, which Republicans are hoping gives independent voters and others a reason to think twice about supporting the measure.
Obama: GOP trying to steal midterm elections
In a sign of how important this initiative is for Democrats − and their fear it may not pass − the “yes” side recruited former President Barack Obama to cut an advertisement supporting the ballot initiative. Obama previously opposed partisan gerrymandering and the “no” side was running their own spots featuring the former president saying as much.
But in a sharply worded response, Obama said the Virginia initiative would “level the playing field,” given recent redraws favoring Republicans in other states.
“Virginia, we are counting on you,” Obama said in the 30-second spot released over the weekend. “Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for the next two years.”
Early voting has seen high turnout, according to reports, which bodes well for the “yes” side as it likely reflects the high-level of anti-Trump enthusiasm that has benefited Democrats in special elections and other contests since the president returned to power.
In another indicator of the measure’s national significance, a total of roughly $100 million in spending from both sides has been fueled mostly from secret donors.
Virginians for Fair Elections, the chief group favoring the ballot question, has raked in about $64 million − largely coming from groups that aren’t required to disclose who their money is coming from.
The “no” side, made up of groups such as Virginians for Fair Maps, has raised about $20 million and cast the ballot question as a “power grab” by Democrats. It is a U-turn when compared to the reforms legislators undertook in 2019 when they overwhelmingly approved creating a bipartisan commission to draw legislative and congressional maps.
“Protecting the integrity of our elections and the confidence Virginians have in their government is one of the most important responsibilities of public service,” Republican former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares, co-chair of the group, said in a Jan. 28 post on X. “The redistricting reforms voters approved in 2020 were a promise – a promise political power should never outweigh the will of the people.”
Spanberger spending capitol on ballot initiative after flip-flop
The partisan redistricting battle has put Democratic moderates, such as Gov. Abigail Spanberger in a difficult position, as she preferred to keep their focus on affordability and other kitchen table issues.
Spanberger, who won in 2025 after amassing a centrist record in Congress, was the Democratic face in response to the president’s 2026 State of the Union address.
In a 2019 post on X, Spanberger said that gerrymandering is “detrimental to our democracy and it weakens the individual voices” in states, but she has defended the ballot initiative as “responsive” against Trump’s efforts.
Polling shows that despite winning handily last November, Spanberger’s poll numbers have taken a hit. A survey by the Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy released this month found 47% approve of her job performance versus 46% who disapproved.
Less than three months into her tenure, 45% of respondents said she was been “too liberal” in office. In the same poll, 52% of likely voters favored altering the state’s congressional lines versus 47% who oppose with a 3.4% margin of error.
Spanberger’s office did not respond to an interview request for this story.
“It is temporary and a ‘yes’ vote is our way to stand up and ensure that efforts in other states do not go unmatched,” Spanberger told host Leigh McGowan during an April 18 episode of Politics Girl podcast.
‘Gerrymandering election’: Virginia maps already rated high by experts
Political observers note that getting voters to polls for a springtime special election will be tough for both sides, which are ramping up their messaging about the measure.
GOP naysayers are hammering home that Virginia voters should forgo entering the fray.
Former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a potential Republican 2028 presidential contender, described the contest as the “gerrymandering election” in an April 20 message post online. He said the new maps will result in roughly 60 counties in the southern half of the state losing their voice.
In response to a rally favoring the measure headlined by California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the former Virginia governor blasted the idea that outsiders are trying to alter the state’s representation.
“Absolutely shameless… This is not California or Massachusetts. This is Virginia,” Youngkin said in an April 15 post on X. “But these are the people Abigail Spanberger is taking direction from.”
Republican opposition is betting mostly on voters ignoring the broader political battle, and instead focus on the state’s process, which has been given high marks for how fairs its lines are.
The Redistricting Report Card produced by Princeton, for example, shows just 18 states with an A rating based on yardsticks such as partisan composition, geographic consistency and minority representation.
Virginia is among the states with the highest grades based on that scorecard.
“The argument on the Democratic side is this temporary measure is a ‘fix,’ but whether they can get that message over the finish line is an open question,” Jennifer Lawless, a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Virginia told USA TODAY.
“It’s going to be contingent on turnout, and I don’t think either side has a fair guess as to what turnout will be because the circumstances around it are so unusual.”
Republicans could add seats in Florida, other states
The sprint to redraw congressional is the biggest mid-decade flurry since the 1800s, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. That means whatever happens in Virginia, the expectation is that Trump will continue to bulldoze his strategy through other Republican-controlled states.
That hasn’t always worked out the way the president has hoped, however. In Indiana, for example, the GOP-controlled state Senate rebuked the administration and refused to accept a new map. Ohio, Utah
Missouri, North Carolina, Texas heeded the president’s call and adopted new maps adding Republican seats. California went to bat for the Democrats, while Ohio and Utah had legally mandated redistricting that marginally affected the partisan slant of their maps. The net result gives Republicans a two-to-three seat gain.
If Virginia passes the ballot measure on April 21, Democrats could end up ahead overall by adding four seats.
But some other states where Republicans hold control have already announced they will be looking at making new maps. In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis called a special legislative session for redistricting that could add three to five Republican-leaning seats.
The GOP controls 20 of the 28 House seats in the Sunshine State, and Democrats have threatened legal action because partisan gerrymandering is currently illegal under Florida law.
The special session was supposed to start April 21, but DeSantis appears to be waffling and rescheduled it to begin April 28 after he expanded its included other topics such as an artificial intelligence “Bill of Rights.”
The GOP-controlled Florida legislature didn’t advance a redistricting plan on its own during its regular session, and instead opted to wait for DeSantis, who indicated a week ago that he wasn’t ready to propose new lines.
“The answer is, I haven’t made any decisions on that, but it’s possible you could do a little tweak, but you can’t really push it very far,” DeSantis said April 14. “You got to get it done probably within the next couple of weeks.”
Contributing: Nicole Fallert, James Powel
