The USD/INR is near the 83.6825 ratio as of this writing with fast bids and asks being demonstrated, this as financial institutions deal with a flurry of volatility in the currency pair the past two weeks.
- Speculators of the USD/INR exchange rate can sit around a table or interact on a social meeting platform and discuss the dynamic price changes of the currency pair, which have occurred the past couple of weeks and try to offer their explanations.
- However, knowing exactly why the USD/INR has moved in the rather volatile manner it has demonstrated may be filled with false narratives by people who do not really know the inner workings of the USD/INR exchange rate.
- The USD/INR has risen the past two day of trading.
I am certainly not part of an inner circle that knows the inner workings of the Reserve Bank of India, so you can read what I have to say and consider it, or disregard my thoughts. As of this writing the USD/INR is displaying a ratio of nearly 83.6825, but this price is via the bids and asks and the value of the currency pair is offering a wide and dangerous spread. Day traders attempting to trade the USD/INR need to use entry price orders in order to try and receive a ‘fair’ market price.
USD/INR Highs Disappear Followed by Lows and Now a Move Upwards
On the 12th of September the USD/INR was traversing near the 83.9900 ratio, the currency pair clearly was using the 84.0000 level as crucial resistance via the Reserve Bank of India. The incremental move lower that started to be seen on that day and built up speed, ultimately led to a low of nearly 83.400 early this week which likely surprised many people. On Tuesday the 17th of September, one day before the U.S Federal Reserve released its interest rate decision; the USD/INR was trading near the 83.7000 ratio. On the 18th the currency pair fell to a low of nearly 83.6175.
After the U.S central bank rate decision the USD/INR continued to trade lower and hit a low mentioned of nearly 83.4100 early this week, and this move can be said to have correlated with the global Forex market via the weak USD sentiment. However, as experienced Indian Rupee traders know, correlations between the USD/INR and broad Forex market is rather hard to determine because of the heavy hand the Reserve Bank of India maintains. Since the lows of early this week however, the USD/INR has started to climb and the 4.7000 is clearly a target.
Higher Price Again in the USD/INR
Having shown ability to trade lower and reverse higher again, traders are certainly asking where the USD/INR is going next. The apex values around the 83.9900 are certainly on the minds of traders, but they should not be aiming for these marks because they are overly ambitious. What does the Reserve Bank of India want?
- The U.S Federal Reserve appears ready to try and be more dovish, but will the Indian Rupee be allowed to actually get fundamentally stronger? A strong bearish move in the USD/INR still doesn’t feel like it is about to become sustained.
- India’s growth numbers are healthy, today the U.S will issue its GDP data, there will be an effect on global Forex, but will any of it matter for the USD/INR?
- Day traders need to remain cautious and wager very carefully when chasing the USD/INR.
USD/INR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 83.6910
Current Support: 83.6780
High Target: 83.7650
Low Target: 83.6490
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