- The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows a slight rebound in the dollar.
- Trump is ready to implement more tariffs, including on automobiles.
- Canadian data revealed solid underlying inflation and upbeat sales.
The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates a modest rebound of the dollar following Trump’s proposal for automobile tariffs.
Ups and downs of USD/CAD
The USD/CAD pair had a bullish week but remained near last week’s lows as the dollar remained fragile. At the same time, data from Canada eased pressure on the Bank of Canada to lower borrowing costs.
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News that Trump will soon meet China’s president raised hopes for a trade deal between the two countries, boosting risk sentiment. However, Trump is ready to implement more tariffs, including those on automobiles, to support the dollar.
Meanwhile, in Canada, data revealed solid underlying inflation and upbeat sales. As a result, BoC rate cut bets fell.
Next week’s key events for USD/CAD
Traders will watch key reports from the US, including gross domestic product and core durable goods. Meanwhile, Canada will release its GDP report.
The US GDP report will show the state of the economy and guide the Fed on future policy moves. A bigger-than-expected expansion will show robust growth, supporting the Fed’s current stance of caution. The dollar would rally in this case, pushing USD/CAD higher. On the other hand, if expansion is weak, the Fed might feel more pressure to lower borrowing costs.
The same applies to Canada’s GDP, which will guide the outlook for Bank of Canada rate cuts.
USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bears eye the 1.3802 support
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On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has reversed and found its footing below the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50, indicating strong bearish momentum. The previous bullish trend reversed after the RSI made a bearish divergence, indicating weak momentum. At the same time, the price made a bearish engulfing candle, leading to a break below the 22-SMA and the 1.4300 support level.
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However, the decline has paused, and the price might retest the 22-SMA and the 1.4300 level as resistance. If it holds firm and the price continues lower, it will confirm a new bearish trend. In this case, bears will target the 1.3802 support level.
However, if bulls manage to push the price back above the SMA, it might enter a period of consolidation or resume the bullish trend.
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