The USD/BRL finished yesterday’s trading near the 5.3571 ratio on Monday. The currency pair remains within an elaborate price realm that should intrigue technical perspectives.
The USD/BRL ended yesterday’s trading session around the 5.3571 mark. The price of the USD/BRL on the 22nd of September was also near the 5.3500 price. Yes, the USD/BRL has certainly traded over the past few months, but the realm of the currency pair has fluctuated 5.3000 and 5.4000 with outliers rather consistently. Speculators have had the ability to take advantage of what has been perceived to be a bearish USD/BRL based on a one year and six month technical charts perspective, with the overriding sentiment the currency pair can still track slightly lower.
The USD/BRL certainly has been able to traverse upwards and cause pain for day traders solely looking for downwards movement. The USD/BRL did break above the 5.4000 level and touched the 5.5300 vicinity on the 10th and 14th of October. Yet, in some ways a protracted move lower has been fed to speculators the past handful of months. But support levels near the 5.3000 mark have proven rather durable too.
Financial Institutions and Federal Reserve Notions
While Brazil led by Lula da Silve is not a favorite of President Trump, the USD/BRL has been able to establish a correlated path with the broad Forex market. The ability of the Brazilian Real to get stronger against the USD has been established. This has been helped in some regards with the belief the U.S Federal Reserve will have to lower interest rates more. But the Fed has been slow to actually decrease the Federal Funds Rate.
What has likely happened via financial institutions trading the USD/BRL is that risk premium has been discounted since early in 2025. Brazil has received attention from President Trump regarding tariffs and political rhetoric, but Brazil has also been able to traverse political storms rather well. Before the tariff climax of April 2025 the USD/BRL was trading around 5.6800, and touched the 6.0000 level momentarily during the height of the White House turbulence in early April.
Turbulence and Lower Values for the USD/BRL
Technical traders may continue to lean into selling the USD/BRL when the currency pair hits perceived technical resistance. The USD/BRL above the 5.3800 ratio does look high, but the 5.4000 level and slightly above was tested early last week.
- The U.S Fed will announce another interest rate decision on the 10th of December.
- Financial institutions are bracing for the Federal Funds Rate and this will affect the USD/BRL over the next few days of trading and into next week.
- Day traders should be ready for choppy conditions, but the prevailing value of the currency pair may hover around current realms until all is known.
- Day traders who want to wager on lower price action cannot be blamed but they should be careful.
- Support around the 5.3000 to 5.3100 should be treated with respect for the moment.
Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 5.3610
Current Support: 5.3510
High Target: 5.3870
Low Target: 5.32400
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