United States records sharpest drop in Australian visitors since COVID

Travellers denied entry, detained and then deported.

Phones seized and searched.

Scientists and academics fleeing because of “safety concerns”.

As the Trump administration continues its crackdown on border security, stories like these are sparking increased anxiety for travellers across the globe.

So why are people avoiding travel to the US?

And is it safe to travel there?

Three tourists look at the grand canyon

Some people are hesitant to travel to the US. (Reuters: Darrin Zammit Lupi)

Are Australians avoiding the US?

Yes, according to the US International Trade Administration.

Their latest data shows Australian visitor numbers plummeted 7 per cent in March this year, compared to March 2024.

That’s the sharpest drop in Australian visitors the US has seen since March 2021, during the height of the COVID pandemic.

Jared Mondschein, director of research at the United States Studies Centre, says more Australians are wary of heading to the US.

“I’m not sure how much this is founded on fact, but nonetheless, there are definitely Australians who are concerned,” he says.

Tourists shield themselves in Times Square

One expert says it’s increasingly difficult for travellers to predict whether they’ll be granted entry into the US. (Reuters: Andrew Kelly)

What about the rest of the world?

Australians are not the only people avoiding the US in the wake of Donald Trump’s inauguration.

The data from the International Trade Administration, which counts visits of one night or more, has also shown big slumps in visitor numbers from other countries.

In March, overseas arrivals to the US plunged 11.6 per cent.

It’s a far cry from what was initially predicted for this year.

Tourism Economics’ inbound US travel forecast projected an 8.8 per cent growth this year.

Now, it’s warning of a 5.1 per cent decline.

It says this is largely due to “tariff-induced” exchange rate shifts and strained diplomatic relations.

Tourists in front of the Lincoln Memorial

The United States is the third-most-visited country in the world. (AP Photo: Carolyn Kaster)

This comes as multiple countries, including Germany, Denmark, Finland, Portugal, Canada and the UK, have issued travel warnings and advisories for the US.

More people are calling for travellers to boycott the US, with Canadians “leading the charge”, according to Mr Mondschein.

In February, Canada’s visitor numbers to the US plunged more than 20 per cent.

Lee Morgenbesser, an associate professor in comparative politics at Griffith University, says this avoidance comes with a heavy cost.

“I think eventually the price tag is billions,” he says.

The real concern is how many billions?

Tourists pose in front of a US flag

Multiple countries have issued travel warnings and advisories for the US. (Reuters: Lucas Jackson)

What are the concerns?

Tourism experts say the US exchange rate and increased cost-of-living pressures are key factors, although some people are being deterred by the current political climate.

In particular, there are growing concerns that people who once easily entered the US are now facing “more scrutiny”.

This follows multiple reports of Canadian and European travellers being detained and deported at the US border.

Mr Morgenbesser says temporary visa holders and tourists are most vulnerable.

Particularly those who have been critical online of the Trump administration.

“It’s definitely unprecedented and somewhat scary,” he says.

Mr Morgenbesser says it’s increasingly difficult for travellers to predict what will happen when they make it to the border.

“The arbitrary nature of whatever a border officer decides at a particular point in time is a bit more frightening than very clear guidance of, ‘You should not come here’,” he says.

A tourist in front of the White House at night

Some people are calling for travellers to boycott the US. (AP Photo: Carolyn Kaster)

He says there are also reports of scientists and academics fleeing the US because of “safety concerns”.

This includes a Yale professor, specialising in fascism, who recently announced he was taking a new post in Canada due to the Trump administration’s “authoritarian” leaning.

Is it safe to travel to the US?

At this stage, Australia hasn’t revised its US travel advice.

However, Mr Morgenbesser says Australians should “reconsider their need to travel”.

Particularly academics, or anyone outspoken about the Trump administration on social media.

Donald Trump sits at a desk and gestures with his hands while speaking.

Travellers are being warned not to be outspoken about the Trump administration on social media. (Reuters: Nathan Howard)

“At least [take] precautions about some of the views you posted online,” he says.

I’m not suggesting self-censoring, but I’m suggesting protection from searches … by the Trump government at the border.

But Mr Mondschein says “in general”, Australians shouldn’t be concerned about travelling to the US.

“Australians, especially in this government, are treated exceptionally well,” he says.

How should I prepare before travelling to the US?

The main piece of advice: make sure you fill out your paperwork correctly.

This includes lodging your ESTA — the online application that determines your eligibility to travel to the US under the visa waiver program — “as early as possible”.

A US flag flying outside of a building surrounded by skyscrapers.

Tourism Economics says a predicted slump in tourism numbers is largely due to “tariff-induced” exchange rate shifts and strained diplomatic relations. (Reuters Andrew Kelly)

“We still see a large number of people who haven’t done their ESTAs that get denied boarding in our major ports because they don’t have an active visa to get into the US,” Australian Travel Industry Association chief executive Dean Long says.

He says travellers should also work to maintain political “neutrality” before heading to the US.

“If there are public demonstrations or you want to have a view on what’s happening in America, remember that you are on a visa,” he says.

You need to … stay neutral, and you’ll have a really good time.

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