In the weeks leading up to his China visit, President Donald Trump was already forecasting on social media that Chinese leader Xi Jinping would “give me a big, fat hug when I get there.”

However, Beijing’s substantial economic connections to Iran, combined with ongoing trade friction over tariff disputes dating back to Trump’s initial presidency, may dampen the warmth during Trump’s arrival in Beijing this week – despite the Republican president’s years of lavish praise for Xi, clearly viewing China’s leader as a formidable rival deserving of his respect and appreciation.

Trump has little appetite for lengthy flights or prolonged absences from the White House or his Florida and New Jersey estates. He’s anticipated to remain on Chinese soil for only portions of three days.

While there will be considerable ceremony, the spectacle isn’t expected to match Trump’s inaugural 2017 China visit, which Beijing characterized as a “state visit-plus.

“Even before this whole conflagration with Iran, they weren’t going to go state visit-plus like last time, just because things are tense,” noted Jonathan Czin, a former director for China at the National Security Council during the Biden administration.

During Trump’s first-term journey, China provided an elaborate welcome upon his arrival, featuring a military band performing ceremonial music alongside children waving flags and chanting “Welcome.” Xi arranged an exclusive tour of the Forbidden City, where Trump and First Lady Melania Trump enjoyed a private dinner. Trump became the first foreign leader since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 to receive treatment historically reserved for emperors.

The next day featured another welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People, complete with a military parade. A state banquet honored Trump, showcasing video footage from Xi’s earlier Florida visit and a recording of Trump’s granddaughter Arabella performing a song in Chinese.

Beijing rarely extends such elaborate treatment to visiting foreign dignitaries. When British Prime Minister Keir Starmer toured the Forbidden City in January, Xi was absent and the landmark stayed accessible to regular visitors. Starmer navigated through crowds of tourists.

Ali Wyne, senior U.S.-China research and advocacy adviser for the Crisis Group, a Washington-based nonprofit, suggested the “Chinese delegation will likely do its utmost to ensure that Trump leaves Beijing believing that he has just concluded the most extraordinary state visit of his two presidencies.”

However, he noted that the “pomp and circumstance would serve a different role now than they did when he first visited Beijing” since “Xi has a much better understanding of Trump, and the administration’s own national security strategy and national defense strategy recognize China as a near-peer.”

Expectations for tangible outcomes may be more modest this time around, according to Czin, currently a fellow at the Brookings Institution.

He anticipates that Chinese officials might hold back on significant concessions regarding trade or other matters, as they are “working backward from our midterm elections” with the calculation that as Election Day approaches “the more leverage they are going to have.”

Republicans are concentrating on maintaining their congressional majority, despite polling data indicating widespread American dissatisfaction with Trump’s economic agenda and sentiment that the United States overreached in Iran.

Nevertheless, the White House maintains that Trump’s earlier firm approach toward Beijing on tariffs – which the Supreme Court later overturned – positions the U.S. favorably going forward.

“President Trump cares about results, not symbols,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated. “But even still, the president has a great relationship with President Xi, and the upcoming summit in Beijing will be both symbolically and substantively significant.” The president could potentially meet with China’s leader on four occasions within an eight-month span.

Following his Beijing trip, Trump intends to welcome Xi to the White House. Trump may additionally attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering in November in Shenzhen, China.

Subsequently, Xi could participate in the Group of 20 summit the next month at Trump’s Doral, Florida resort. Czin pointed out that Xi is also not particularly keen on traveling, suggesting that not all of the planned meetings may come to fruition.

He added that China’s leader does not “do personal connections” in the way Trump enjoys, highlighting that Xi oversaw a Chinese military purge in January that included removing officials with longstanding personal ties to his family.

Wyne, however, noted that Xi also “appreciates that he is unlikely to deal with another U.S. president who admires him as greatly and embraces as narrow a view of strategic competition.”

This means Xi may “attempt to pocket as many economic and security concessions from Trump as possible,” Wyne said.

In 2024, Trump told The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board that Xi “was actually a really good … I don’t want to say ‘friend.’ I don’t want to act foolish. ‘He was my friend.’ But I got along with him great.”

Trump even floated the idea at the time that military intervention might not be necessary to prevent Chinese forces from encroaching on Taiwan, simply because China’s leader “respects me,” despite more recently floating the possibility of selling arms to Taiwan.

Trump has continued to speak favorably about the bilateral relationship since his return to the White House, even after his planned visit to Beijing, originally slated for March, was pushed back due to the early stages of the Iran war.

Trump’s efforts to draw China into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, after Iranian forces blocked the critical waterway and rattled global markets, proved unsuccessful.

Nevertheless, Beijing leveraged its position as Iran’s largest oil buyer to nudge Tehran toward a fragile ceasefire agreement.

With deep economic ties to Iran, China stands to lose from prolonged conflict, particularly as its economy was already forecast to expand at a reduced pace. Should Beijing play a decisive role in securing a durable peace, it could strengthen its hand in ongoing trade negotiations with the Trump administration.

During his 2017 trip, Trump unveiled $250 billion in nonbinding trade agreements, several of which never came to pass. A subsequent package of deals announced in 2020, valued at $200 billion, largely failed to materialize before Trump’s first term concluded.

More recently, Trump’s rollout of sweeping global tariffs last year prompted Beijing to halt U.S. soybean purchases and restrict exports of rare earth minerals vital to American manufacturing. Tensions have since cooled following a trade truce reached last fall that placed limits on tariffs from both nations.

The administration has continued to prioritize shrinking the U.S. trade deficit with China, arguing that this goal is compatible with fostering broader commerce between the two powers.

“I expect great stability in the relationship,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. “But that doesn’t mean our trade deficit can’t continue dropping.” White House spokeswoman Kelly asserted that Trump “doesn’t travel anywhere without bringing deliverables home to our country. Americans can expect the president to deliver more good deals for the United States while in China,” she added.