On the seventh floor of the immense Quan Ju De restaurant in Beijing, a small museum honours the “roast duck diplomacy” of the past.
Faded black and white photos show a smiling U.S. president Richard Nixon and secretary of state Henry Kissinger eating with the Chinese leadership, including premier Zhou Enlai, in 1972, a meeting that led to the normalization of relations between these cold war adversaries.
It serves as a reminder to modern diners that when American and Chinese presidents put their heads together over a meal, they can change the world.
Today, the question echoing through Beijing’s diplomatic and political circles is whether the current U.S. leader, Donald Trump, will show up to the table at all.
Distracted by a self-launched war in Iran and facing mounting domestic pressure, Trump has pushed the heavy China file to the side of his plate to focus on war strategy.
Previously, the White House had said the visit to China would begin on March 31. And while Trump told American media on Monday that the delay would likely only last “a month or so,” the uncertainty is palpable.
China’s foreign ministry remained characteristically brief this week when a spokesman answered questions on the delay, stating only that the two sides remain “in communication” regarding the timing of the summit with President Xi Jinping.
Pattern of uncertainty
Economic observers in Beijing say it’s impossible to predict when the visit will happen.
“Nobody knows,” said Xiang Songzuo, a prominent economist and professor at the Renmin University School of Finance. “We all know President Trump always changes his decisions. Tomorrow, maybe, he will make a new one.”
Chinese officials say they are considering U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to reschedule his trip to China because of the war in the Middle East, a move Trump says is not because Beijing refused to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Zichen Wang, deputy secretary general at the Center for China and Globalization, agrees that a month is a lifetime in the current political climate.
“Who knows what will happen in four weeks?” he told CBC News. “The uncertainties are immense.”
There is, however, a silver lining for Beijing.
By blaming the delay on his own distractions rather than Chinese intransigence, Trump has inadvertently lowered the temperature between the geopolitical rivals.
“Beijing can breathe a sigh of relief because he’s not pointing the finger at China,” Wang noted. “It also buys both sides time. The Americans, in particular, haven’t done enough legwork to make a summit of this magnitude successful.”
High stakes and legal hurdles
The preparation gap was evident this week in Paris, where senior officials met to lay the groundwork. Reports suggest Chinese frustration was high over uncertainty about what Trump wanted out of the summit.
The stakes couldn’t be higher.
In 2024, the U.S.-China trade relationship topped $650 billion US.
But stability vanished in March 2025, when Trump declared a national emergency, slapping tariffs of up to 145 per cent on Chinese sectors. China retaliated with 34 per cent tariffs and restrictions on critical minerals, a move that hobbled U.S. automakers and sent global markets into a tailspin.
With Chinese domestic consumption shrinking and ongoing weakness in the country’s housing market fuelling economic uncertainty, a new trade deal that creates opportunities for Chinese exports is seen as a top government priority.
Consumer goods are piling up in warehouses in China with the skyrocketing cost of shipping adding a layer of complication to trading with the Middle East. But some see a big opportunity for China to step in when the bombing ends and rebuilding starts.
A temporary truce in U.S.-China trade is set to expire in November, making the Beijing summit the only real hope for economic predictability.
However, the longer Trump puts off the summit, the more his leverage may erode.
The U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled that his “national security” tariffs — imposed via the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — are illegal.
“The Supreme Court decision is a major win for Chinese exporters,” said Xiang.
While the White House is already attempting to replace those tariffs with new investigations by the U.S. Trade Representative into Chinese “overproduction” and labour practices, China is demanding those probes cease before Xi and Trump meet.
The shadow of war
The list of issues for the two leaders to discuss when they do finally meet is lengthy.
Semiconductors, critical minerals, aluminium, steel, soybeans, poultry, beef, commercial aircraft and the sale of TikTok are ongoing points of disagreement that could be up for negotiation.
Beyond trade, the war in Iran remains the ultimate wild card.
For China, it represents a massive geopolitical and energy risk.
“If the U.S. commits ground troops, it escalates everything to another level,” said Wang. “China is a massive importer of Middle Eastern energy. The instability there changes the entire calculus of these talks.”
Canada’s government, which is attempting its own reset with China, also has much at stake with a Trump-Xi summit.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s efforts to diversify trade have drawn a characteristically blunt threat from the U.S. president: a 100 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods if Ottawa strikes a broad deal with Beijing.
While Carney insists such a deal isn’t in the cards, the ultimatum underscores the volatility of the moment.
For now, the potential table at Quan Ju De remains set for two — but the guests of honour are nowhere to be seen.
