May 7, 2026, 5:10 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON – After President Donald Trump knocked off at least five Republican state senators in Indiana he considered disloyal, the question is whether he will command such outsized influence in GOP primaries this month for Congress and governor.
Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger each earned Trump’s ire in different ways. But the common element is that Trump wants to replace them with Republicans he considers more reliable despite his interest in holding narrow Republican majorities in the House and Senate.
John Pitney Jr., a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College in California, said the Indiana results confirmed Trump’s grip on the Republican Party.
“Sometimes, Republican politicians can cross him and survive, but usually they don’t,” Pitney told USA TODAY. “If you’re a Republican with doubts about Trump, you have a strong incentive to keep those doubts in a lockbox.”
Karen Hult, a political science professor at Virginia Tech, said to the extent the races are viewed as “one-shot ‘retribution’ or ‘payback races’ in safe Republican districts,” the campaigns likely convey little about the cost of gas, food and health care.
“Certainly, in the short run, President Trump and his Republican supporters are and will continue be highlighting the victories and the depth of their support among Republican voters while underscoring the risks to those who oppose or can be cast as blocking presidential leadership,” Hult told USA TODAY.
Trump-endorsed challengers beat at least 5 GOP state senators in Indiana
In Indiana, Trump endorsed seven GOP challengers campaigning to defeat state senators who opposed the president’s attempt to redraw congressional districts for Hoosiers. In each case, Trump called the incumbent a “LOSER” and a Republican-in-name-only. Those were digs for opposing his map that gave a GOP advantage to all nine House seats in a delegation that now has two Democrats.
Five of the state senators were defeated, one survived and another race remains too close to call.
The results illustrated the polarizing effect Trump has. The president’s disapproval rating hit an all-time high of 62% in a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll taken April 24 to 28. But the same poll of 2,560 adults found 85% of Republican voters approved of the job he was doing.
“Trump is perhaps not as popular in my district as he once was, but he is still overwhelmingly popular,” state Sen. Spencer Deery, whose race was too close to call, told CNN while the votes were being counted.
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said he knew Republicans who were “edging closer to selective criticism of Trump on the war, inflation, and so on,” but the Indiana defeats are intimidating.
“It’s the survival instinct of politicians who are on the ballot in November,” Sabato told USA TODAY. “I guarantee you they’ve stepped back after Indiana.”
Massie opposed Trump on tax-cut legislation, Iran war and Epstein files
Massie has opposed Trump on several high-profile issues. He voted against the president’s tax-cut package last year. Massie led the legislative battle to force the release of Justice Department documents about the investigation of accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. And Massie voted to halt the war on Iran.
Trump has blasted Massie repeatedly in social-media posts and visited his Kentucky district in March to campaign for his primary opponent.
“He’s the worst person,” Trump said of Massie at a March rally where he endorsed Ed Gallrein in Hebron, Kentucky. “Massie is a complete and total disaster as a congressman and frankly as a human being.”
Massie has led Gallrein in polling for the May 19 primary. Pitney said Massie might be one of the survivors of Trump’s wrath because he holds even more conservative positions than the president, making him “even Trumpier than Trump.”
Cassidy voted to convict Trump in Senate impeachment trial
Cassidy was among the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump in his second Senate impeachment trial on charges he incited the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Trump was acquitted for lack of a two-thirds majority in the 57-43 vote.
More recently, Cassidy, a doctor, forced the withdrawal of Trump’s candidate for surgeon general, Casey Means, after grilling her over a lack of support for vaccines.
Trump called Cassidy “a very disloyal person” in a social media post April 30. Trump said “Cassidy’s intransigence and political games” blocked Means from getting the job.
Trump endorsed Cassidy’s primary opponent, Rep. Julia Letlow, as a “TOTAL WINNER” to support energy development and lower taxes and regulations.
Hult expected Massie and Cassidy to face headwinds. But what is less clear is the degree of loyalty and backing they enjoy in their states, and whether fellow Republicans who their share concerns about issues such as “national security, economic stewardship and other matters will turn out to support them,” she said.
Raffensperger refused Trump’s request to ‘find’ votes to win 2020 election
Raffensperger is running for governor after refusing Trump’s request to “find” enough votes to win the state in 2020, when he lost to President Joe Biden.
Raffensperger told USA TODAY in October 2024 he expects pressure “from political advocates on both sides of the aisle.”
“I think I’ve shown that I will stand my ground. I’ll follow the law,” he said. “I’ll follow the Constitution. I’ll do my job.”
In January 2021, Trump repeatedly accused Raffensperger of not doing his job and alleging without evidence that thousands of fraudulent votes were cast.
“Brad Raffensperger has to do his job, and make sure this Election is not stolen,” Trump said on social media Aug. 3, 2024. “I truly believe they would rather see the Republican Party lose than win!” Trump said in another post about Raffensperger and others.
Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the Georgia primary May 19 as a “WARRIOR” to grow the economy, cut taxes and secure the border.
But Sabato said it would take extraordinary luck for Massie, Cassidy and Raffensperger to win their primaries.
“There are always surprises and an occasional exception to the rule, but these three will be the equivalent of multi-state lottery winners if they survive Trump’s wrath,” Sabato said.
