These markets could surprise investors in the new year

Overall, a good year is predicted for the stock markets. (symbolic image)

KEYSTONE

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is also likely to affect the stock markets, say experts. Nevertheless, they expect a good year on the markets overall.

No time? blue News summarizes for you

  • Experts expect a solid stock market year overall in 2025.
  • The first half of the year is likely to be dominated by Donald Trump.
  • In general, most strategists have a certain preference for US equities.

In January 2025, Donald Trump moves into the White House for the second time. This will bring unpredictability back to the markets and is likely to lead to increased volatility for the time being. Overall, however, it could be another good year for equities.

However, investors should be prepared for regional differences – just like in the stock market year now drawing to a close. For example, the hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and Trump’s clear re-election have boosted the US stock markets. The German DAX is also no longer impressed by the country’s economic woes.

The situation is different on the Swiss stock market, where the SMI benchmark index is currently showing comparatively meagre gains of around 2.9% for 2024. The rather weak performance is mainly due to its defensive orientation. In particular, the share price losses of more than a quarter at heavyweight Nestlé have left their mark.

Defensive as good protection

Meanwhile, this orientation could also offer a certain degree of protection in the coming year, according to experts. Various strategists expect the first half of 2025 in particular to be characterized by uncertainty and volatility. The reasons for this are not least Trump’s return to the White House.

“There is no doubt that President Trump’s victory will influence the coming stock market year,” say the market strategists at insurer Zurich. “The tough rhetoric has already sent shockwaves.”

Inflation an issue again

For example, international trade is likely to be disrupted initially if the Trump administration introduces new tariffs on US imports. Higher tariffs will lead to higher prices for US consumers. The planned stricter immigration policy, in turn, is likely to tighten the labor market. “Both will further fuel inflation. This is the downside of the policy, which is why Donald Trump has to weigh up very carefully how far he can go,” says Raiffeisen CIO Matthias Geissbühler.

This policy may also have an impact on the future interest rate path of the US Federal Reserve, which was one of the last to cut interest rates this year. As a result, interest rates in the US could remain restrictive, which would also slow down US economic growth from the interest rate side.

Weaker economic growth in the US coupled with the protectionist trade policy is likely to put pressure on growth in the eurozone and China. “There is likely to be an economic slowdown in the US and the EU, but we are not currently expecting a recession,” predicts Thomas Stucki, investment expert at St. Galler Kantonalbank. “The US economy will prove to be resilient.”

Most strategists are also not expecting a significant downturn in China. The question remains as to what extent Beijing will succeed in supporting the economy with a comprehensive support program.

Negative factors for the Swiss economy

All of this will not leave the Swiss economy unscathed. Germany’s economic problems in particular represent a considerable burden factor, coupled with the political uncertainty ahead of the upcoming elections. However, according to strategists, the new government has a certain amount of leeway to help the economy back on its feet.

From the second half of the year, most strategists expect a slight improvement overall. At Julius Baer, Christian Gattiker justifies this with the fact that Trump stands for deregulation, among other things. “The motto for the coming year will be ‘success is a matter of negotiation'”. Accordingly, the investment expert assumes that the markets will see many “deals”, i.e. takeovers and mergers, from next year. “A lot that has built up over the past four years will rush onto the market.”

Market experts agree that there is no way around shares in this environment. “Technology and semiconductor-related sectors are likely to continue to show the most exciting movements,” says SGKB. For the strategists, a good counterbalance to this is the local pharmaceutical sector, which should continue to grow solidly. After all, experts like Geissbühler believe that the SMI will reach 13,000 points by the end of 2025 – an increase of around 10 percent.

In general, however, most strategists have a certain preference for US equities. They are still seen as the main winners of a Trump administration.

Gold and Bitcoin

In addition to equities, Gattiker von Bär also advises investing in tangible assets such as gold and silver. Gold already had a strong inflow in 2024. As long as investors are unsettled, this is likely to remain the case.

Investors should also keep an eye on the cryptocurrency Bitcoin. “Many market participants are happy to lock Bitcoin in the broom closet,” says Gattiker. “But the cryptocurrency is here to stay and will probably continue to rise.”

US President Trump also plays an important role here. Should he actually approve cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin as a strategic reserve currency, they are likely to go through the roof.



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恒指今早高開122點,高位升203點,低位升25點,高低波幅178點。上升股份比例為27.42%,下跌為23.72%,無升跌為48.84%。 恒指半日升137點或0.7%,報19857點,大市成交金額679億元;國指升52點或0.73%,報7195點。恒生科技指數收報4466點,升0.49%。 藍籌股成交金額321.1億元,佔大市成交47.29%;科指成份股成交金額209.73億元,佔大市成交30.88%;國指成份股成交金額293.22億元,佔大市成交43.18%。 24隻雙櫃台股,總成交0.4億元人民幣,相當於約0.43億港元,佔大市成交的0.06%。 窩輪及牛熊證成交金額減少24.02%,至77.2億元,佔大市成交11.35%。牛熊證成交金額42.97億元,減少8.84%;窩輪成交金額34.22億元,減少37.16%。 藍籌62隻升,16隻下跌,5隻無升跌。百度 (9888)升3.9%,收報85.15元,是升幅最大的藍籌,舜宇(2382)跌2.51%,收報69.85元,是跌幅最大的藍籌。 恒生科技指數成份股22隻升,8隻下跌。升幅最大的是東方甄選(1797)收報18.28元,升11.74%;跌幅最大的是舜宇(2382)創52周高,見73元,收報69.85元,跌2.51%。 恒指上試10天線(19952.63點),曾跌穿20天線(19797.93點)。科指曾升10天線(4482.63點),曾跌穿20天線(4440.18點)、50天線(4465.79點)。 北水南下合計淨流入11.38億元,較上日減少30.23%,連續第5日流入,累計流入274.13億元,對上一次連續5日淨流入是11月20日。北水本月累計流入664.26億元,按月減少46.87%。 順豐控股(6936):超額配股權失效 H股獲納入互聯互通名單。平上市高位35.5元,收報35.05元,升3.24%。 康耐特光學(2276)折讓19%配股 籌8億。創上市新高,見22.9元,收報20.65元,升4.19%。 越疆科技(2432)上市,定價18.8元。曾高見21.4元,升13.83%收報18.84元,升0.21%。 恒達集團(3616)最快今公布業績。停牌。 金監總局批准任丁向群任為中國人保(1339)董事長。收報3.72元,升0.81%。 金邦達寶(3315)發盈警料今年純利最多削七成。平上市低位0.95元,收報0.96元,跌4.95%。 蔚來(9866)旗艦車型ET9訂單超預期,首批999架限量版已售罄。收報35.15元,跌0.42%。 匯控(0005)就出售法國壽險業務簽備忘錄,料錄1億歐元稅前虧損。收報74.9元,升1.08%。 中銀(2388):偽冒保費扣賬短訊與該行無關,提醒慎防虛假短訊。收報24.8元,升0.61%。 國泰航空(0293)11月載客201萬人次按年增23%。收報9.53元,升2.03%。 被要求付95億人幣,萬達指融創(1918)無要求回購股份合同依據。收報2.41元,跌1.23%。 中電信(0728)11月5G套餐用戶淨增184萬戶。收報4.85元,無升跌。 平保(2318)增持建行至5%。收報46.4元,升2.09%。 中國聯通(0762)11月5G套餐累計2.89億戶。收報7.32元,升2.38%。 中移動(0941)11月5G網絡客戶5.47億戶。收報75.75元,升0.53%。 港交所(0388):今年IPO集資額830億元為全球四大之一 。收報298元,升0.68%。 意大利查長和(0001)出售資產交易稅務問題。收報41.25元,升1.6%。 破頂股表現 破頂股包括,新華文軒(0811)創上市新高,見11.48元,收報11.48元,升1.06%;康耐特光學(2276)創上市新高,見22.9元,收報20.65元,升4.19%;同源康醫藥-B(2410)創上市新高,見55.9元,收報54.95元,升0.46%;德益控股(9900)創上市新高,見9元,收報8.25元,升0.49%;小米集團-WR(81810)創上市新高,見30.2元,收報29.7元,跌0.17%;越疆科技(2432)高見21.4元,收報18.84元,升0.21%;A南方港元(3053)創上市新高,見1141.95元,收報1141.95元,升0.05%;A中金港元(3071)創上市新高,見1105.5元,收報1105元,跌0.04%;A博時港元(3152)創上市新高,見1081.25元,收報1081.25元,升0.06%;達力集團(0029)創52周高,見10.82元,收報10.72元,升8.5%;紛美包裝(0468)創52周高,見2.59元,收報2.59元,無升跌。 破頂指數成份股包括,小米(1810)創52周高,見32.25元,收報31.8元,升0.47%;舜宇(2382)創52周高,見73元,收報69.85元,跌2.51%;建行(0939)創52周高,見6.37元,收報6.35元,升2.09%;。 破底股方面 23隻股份創上市新低,其中十隻包括,朗詩綠色管理(0106)低見0.011元,收報0.011元,跌8.33%;德祥地產(0199)低見0.193元,收報0.203元,升0.5%;資本界金控(0204)低見0.076元,收報0.088元,升6.02%;ALCO HOLDINGS(0328)低見0.5元,收報0.53元,跌27.4%;富陽(0352)低見0.061元,收報0.061元,跌14.08%;龍輝國際控股(1007)低見0.117元,收報0.123元,跌8.21%;暢由聯盟(1039)低見0.052元,收報0.052元,跌13.33%;加科思-B(1167)低見1.23元,收報1.24元,跌3.88%;知行汽車科技(1274)低見16.14元,收報16.3元,跌2.04%;正通汽車(1728)低見0.068元,收報0.071元,跌5.33%。 32隻股份創52周低,其中十隻包括,遠東發展(0035)低見0.88元,收報0.9元,無升跌;科聯系統(0046)低見1.54元,收報1.54元,跌0.65%;協合新能源(0182)低見0.51元,收報0.51元,無升跌;和記電訊香港(0215)低見0.92元,收報0.93元,升1.09%;龍記集團(0255)低見1.06元,收報1.06元,跌0.93%;WKK INTL(0532)低見0.3元,收報0.305元,跌3.17%;金源發展國際實業(0677)低見0.38元,收報0.38元,無升跌;首惠產業金融(0730)低見0.102元,收報0.103元,跌6.36%;信星集團(1170)低見0.55元,收報0.55元,跌8.33%;兗礦能源(1171)低見8.58元,收報8.59元,跌1.04%。 異動股 上升異動股,包括,源想集團(8401)收報0.202元,升69.75%;偉源控股(1343)收報0.088元,升25.71%;盛良物流(8292)收報0.075元,升22.95%;卡森國際(0496)創52周高,見0.395元,收報0.37元,升21.31%;領悅服務(2165)收報1.31元,升21.3%;聚利寶控股(8527)收報0.44元,升20.55%;飲食天王(環球)(8619)收報0.062元,升19.23%;EPRINT集團(1884)收報0.135元,升17.39%;濠亮環球(8118)收報0.075元,升17.19%;中國農產品交易(0149)收報0.042元,升16.67%。 下跌異動股,包括,世大控股(8003)收報0.085元,跌42.57%;光尚文化控股(8082)收報0.029元,跌38.3%;ALCO HOLDINGS(0328)創上市新低,見0.5元,收報0.53元,跌27.4%;中國集成控股(1027)收報0.91元,跌24.17%;曼妠(8186)見52周低0.7元,收報0.7元,跌21.35%;中油潔能控股(1759)收報0.465元,跌18.42%;維天運通(2482)收報0.77元,跌17.2%;MI能源(1555)收報0.023元,跌14.81%;雙樺控股(1241)收報0.101元,跌14.41%;富陽(0352)創上市新低,見0.061元,收報0.061元,跌14.08%;暢由聯盟(1039)創上市新低,見0.052元,收報0.052元,跌13.33%。 其他報道 滬深三大指數半日個別走 滬指一枝獨秀 港元拆息普遍向上 1個月HIBOR連升6日 貨幣總結餘升 齊創兩個月高 NHK:本田與日產計劃於6月就合併達成最終協議 匯控約75億元出售法國壽險業務 料錄8億元稅前虧損 積金評級料12月強積金人均蝕 2100元 惟全年回報有望升9% 人均賺2.16萬元

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恒指今早高開122點 科指升0.84% 越疆上市升4.7% (09:26) – 20241223 – 即時財經新聞

藍籌49隻升,7隻下跌,27隻無升跌。新東方(9901)升2.78%,報48.05元,是升幅最大的藍籌,聯想(0992)跌0.53%,報9.42元,是跌幅最大的藍籌。 恒生科技指數成份股24隻升,2隻下跌,4隻無升跌。升幅最大的是蔚來(9866)開市報36.1元,升2.27%;跌幅最大的是聯想(0992)開市報9.42元,跌0.53%。 恒指升穿20天線(19797.22點)。科指升穿50天線(4466.1點)。 順豐控股(6936):超額配股權失效 H股獲納入互聯互通名單。開市報34.45元,升1.47%。 康耐特光學(2276)折讓19%配股 籌8億。平上市高位20元,開市報20元,升0.91%。 越疆科技(2432)上市,定價18.8元。創上市新高,見19.7元,平上市低位18.8元,開市報19.7元,升4.79%。 恒達集團(3616)最快今公布業績。停牌。 金監總局批准任丁向群任為中國人保(1339)董事長。開市報3.7元,升0.27%。 金邦達寶(3315)發盈警料今年純利最多削七成。開市報0.97元,跌3.96%。 蔚來(9866)旗艦車型ET9訂單超預期,首批999架限量版已售罄。開市報36.1元,升2.27%。 匯控(0005)就出售法國壽險業務簽備忘錄,料錄1億歐元稅前虧損。開市報74.1元,無升跌。 中銀(2388):偽冒保費扣賬短訊與該行無關,提醒慎防虛假短訊。開市報24.65元,無升跌。 國泰航空(0293)11月載客201萬人次按年增23%。開市報9.35元,升0.11%。 被要求付95億人幣,萬達指融創(1918)無要求回購股份合同依據。開市報2.43元,跌0.41%。 中電信(0728)11月5G套餐用戶淨增184萬戶。開市報4.88元,升0.62%。 平保(2318)增持建行至5%。開市報45.6元,升0.33%。 中國聯通(0762)11月5G套餐累計2.89億戶。無成交,報7.15元。 中移動(0941)11月5G網絡客戶5.47億戶。開市報75.8元,升0.6%。 港交所(0388):今年IPO集資額830億元為全球四大之一 。開市報296元,無升跌。 意大利查長和(0001)出售資產交易稅務問題。開市報40.8元,升0.49%。 破頂股表現 破頂股包括,越疆科技(2432)開市報19.7元,升4.79%;紛美包裝(0468)創52周高,見2.59元,開市報2.59元,無升跌;復宏漢霖(2696)創52周高,見23.95元,開市報23.95元,升0.21%。 破底股方面 創52周低,其中包括,遠東發展(0035)低見0.88元,開市報0.88元,跌2.22%;和記電訊香港(0215)低見0.92元,開市報0.92元,無升跌;久泰邦達能源(2798)低見0.81元,開市報0.81元,跌3.57%。 異動股 上升異動股,包括,華控康泰(1312)開市報0.031元,升14.81%;南南資源(1229)開市報0.169元,升14.19%;皇璽餐飲集團(8300)開市報0.107元,升11.46%;從玉智農(0875)開市報1.7元,升10.39%;維信金科(2003)開市報2.16元,升9.09%;衛龍美味(9985)開市報7.92元,升8.49%;中國玻璃(3300)開市報0.465元,升6.9%;RAFFLESINTERIOR(1376)開市報0.187元,升6.25%;金山雲(3896)開市報4.96元,升5.76%;易和國際控股(8659)開市報0.38元,升5.56%。 下跌異動股,包括,坤集團(0924)開市報0.52元,跌11.86%;佳兆業美好(2168)開市報1.45元,跌9.38%;時代中國(1233)開市報0.34元,跌6.85%;大成生化科技(0809)開市報0.094元,跌6%;高鑫零售(6808)開市報2.4元,跌5.51%;超媒體控股(0072)開市報0.23元,跌5.35%;金邦達寶嘉(3315)開市報0.97元,跌3.96%。 其他報道 NHK:本田與日產計劃於6月就合併達成最終協議 順豐控股:超額配股權失效 H股獲納入互聯互通名單 港股ADR升90點 夜期高水165點 美期亞股升 越疆上市 康耐特光學折讓19%配股 籌8億 北水增持工行 減持希教國際 Source link

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