The Trump Bull Market Is About to End — but These Stocks Will Rise Anyway
I predict that the Trump bull market will soon end. But there are two somewhat troubling issues with this prediction that need to be addressed right off the bat.
First, less than three months ago, I predicted that the S&P 500(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) would deliver a single-digit gain in 2026. However, an important part of Bayesian statistics is that you should “update your priors.” In other words, you should change your initial assumptions in light of new data or evidence. My new prediction reflects an update to my prior assumptions.
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Second, the bull market really isn’t the “Trump bull market.” After all, the stock market run began in late 2022, when Joe Biden was president. Since President Trump has often taken credit for the stock market’s performance, though, I’ll be generous by attaching his name to the current bull market (and the bear market that’s potentially on the way, too).
That said, I suspect the Trump bull market is about to wind down. However, there’s good news for investors: Some stocks will rise anyway.
Image source: Getty Images.
What made me update my prior assumptions about the stock market? The attack by the U.S. and Israel on Iran and the aftermath (especially the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz) is the most important factor.
Higher oil prices don’t just impact the price of gasoline at the pump. They can cause the prices of nearly every product to rise. While I’m hopeful that the crisis ends quickly and peacefully, I’m nonetheless concerned that inflation will increase rather than decline this year.
The producer price index (PPI), a key metric of wholesale prices, jumped 3.4% year over year last month. This increase was much higher than economists expected. Importantly, the February PPI reflected prices before the Iran conflict.
Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is weakening. GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 slipped to 1.4%. Granted, some of the decline stemmed from the federal government shutdown. However, lower GDP growth isn’t reassuring, especially given that the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February.
Unfortunately, the combination of higher prices and a sluggish economy presents a dilemma for the Federal Reserve. If the Fed cuts interest rates further, it could fuel inflation. If the Fed raises rates, it could hurt job growth.
All of this uncertainty exists at a point when the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, one of the most widely followed market valuation metrics, is near its second-highest level since early 2000. The stock market is arguably priced for perfection, but the macroeconomic landscape is far from perfect.
I’m usually an optimist. However, my hunch is that the Trump bull market is running on fumes. But I expect three stocks, in particular, will rise even if the bull market ends.
Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE: BRKA)(NYSE: BRKB) is a safe haven for many investors during turbulent times. Warren Buffett left the conglomerate a massive cash stockpile when he handed the CEO baton to Greg Abel at the beginning of this year. This cash gives Berkshire ample flexibility to buy great stocks on the cheap, as the bull market gives way to a bear market.
The company’s insurance and utilities businesses should hold up well if the economy falters. Berkshire’s diversified portfolio provides a cushion, too, especially given its limited exposure to the sectors most likely to be affected in a downturn.
Enbridge(NYSE: ENB) stands to benefit from increased demand for U.S. oil and gas amid turmoil in the Middle East. Its pipelines transport much of the country’s crude oil and natural gas. But Enbridge is also a great utility stock, ranking as the largest natural gas utility in North America by volume.
Many investors like to own dividend stocks during bear markets. Enbridge’s juicy dividend yield of 5.2% and its 31-year track record of dividend increases should be attractive.
Healthcare is arguably the ultimate defensive sector. Patients can’t stop taking life-saving drugs because the stock market is down. That’s a key reason why I think Vertex Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ: VRTX) could rise even if the S&P 500 falters. The company enjoys a virtual monopoly in treating the underlying cause of cystic fibrosis (CF). It also has a new non-opioid pain drug on the market that has blockbuster potential.
As icing on the cake, Vertex could have at least one major catalyst this year. The biotech company is on track to complete its U.S. regulatory filing for accelerated approval of povetacicept for the treatment of IgA nephropathy (a chronic kidney disease) in the first half of 2026. Vertex could also report results from a pivotal late-stage study of inaxaplin in treating APOL1-mediated kidney disease by the end of the year.
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Keith Speights has positions in Berkshire Hathaway, Enbridge, and Vertex Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway, Enbridge, and Vertex Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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