So what’s the big deal, why are the upcoming elections on May 7 so important? (Image: DX)
Nigel Farage has described them as the British version of the US mid-terms, Keir Starmer would rather they weren’t happening, while Kemi Badenoch launched her party’s campaign with much fanfare this week. In fact, it seems like most political parties have been in perma-campaign mode for some time now.
So what’s the big deal? Why are the upcoming elections on May 7 so important? For starters, millions of voters will head to the polls in just under seven weeks time for what is the biggest set of voting since the 2024 general election.
Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
Voters in Scotland and Wales will elect representatives to their national parliaments, while a number of local council and mayoral polls will take place in England.
This includes elections in 30 English councils that will now go ahead after the government was forced to backtrack in the face of a legal challenge from Reform UK.
Around 5,000 seats across 136 local councils will be up for grabs.
Six mayoral contests will run on the same day – in Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Watford.
The Scottish Parliament election will decide who governs the country in key areas such as health and education and, as a result, the direction it takes on many issues.
All 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) are up for re-election.
Meanwhile, the Senedd election represents the biggest change to the parliament since powers began to be transferred to Wales in 1999.
It will determine who governs the country on many key issues.
The number of Members of the Senedd (MSs) will be expanded from the current 60 to 96 representatives from 16 newly devised constituencies.
The party that wins the most seats in the Senedd election would expect to lead the government.
However, no party has ever won a majority in the Welsh Parliament and the new system makes it highly unlikely that will change at this election.
So who will be the winners and losers on the first Thursday in May?
If the polls and bookmakers are to be believed there’s only going to be one winner – Reform UK – in England at least.
Reform is polling at around 26% among voters, down from highs of 31% in October but still well ahead of Labour, the Tories and the Greens.
They are all hovering in the high teens.
Traditionally, the party in power at Westminster does badly in “midterm” elections, so expect Labour to lose seats.
Some in Westminster are expecting a bloodbath for Labour which could trigger a leadership challenge for under pressure Sir Keir.
The Conservatives have struggled in the national opinion polls since the last general election despite the growing popularity of Mrs Badenoch.
She told her supporters at this week’s launch that the party was “coming back” but these elections could be a pivotal moment for the Tories.
Kemi Badenoch (Image: Getty)
Mr Farage believes they will be “annihilated”, leaving Reform as the only significant party on the Right.
May 7 is also the deadline that he has set for any more Tory defectors wishing to join his party.
“The Tories have had a good run for 200 years. I think we wake up on 8 May and realise that the Conservative party’s gone,” he recently told the Spectator.
Reform’s goal is to repeat the magic of last year’s local elections in which the party gained more than 600 council seats and won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election in a previously rock-solid Labour seat.
Over the next six weeks they will focus on three issues: crime, immigration and the cost of living.
Mr Farage intends to hold around 35 rallies across the UK in March and April and plans to devote the bulk of the party’s swelling financial war chest towards this.
Sunderland and South Tyneside in north-east England, Norfolk and Suffolk in the East, along with suburban London boroughs such as Bexley, Bromley, Havering, and Barking and Dagenham are some of their biggest targets.
Essex is another major target for Mr Farage.
He sees it as ground zero in the battle to destroy the Conservatives.
Some of the party’s biggest beasts – Mrs Badenoch, James Cleverly, Priti Patel, Alex Burghart, John Wittingdale and Mark Francois – are all MPs in the county.
Reform is polling in second place in Scotland behind the governing Scottish National Party, with Labour in third.
In Wales, Reform is vying with Plaid Cymru for first place in the Senedd.
Third place for Labour in either Scotland or Wales on May 7 would mark a historic defeat for Sir Keir’s party.
But it’s not all a foregone conclusion.
The British political landscape is hugely fragmented at the moment, especially with the rise of the Green Party on the Left.
The Greens, led by populist leader Zack Polanski, have done, in recent months, what Reform did in 2025.
Hannah Spencer’s victory in the recent Gorton and Denton by-election shows anything can happen.
Keir Starmer (Image: Getty Images)
Tactical voting will be a major factor too, as was the case in last year’s Caerphilly by-election in which Plaid claimed a historic victory at Labour’s expense.
That could again become Reform’s undoing in some areas as voters try to “keep out” Mr Farage’s party.
And then there’s the Liberal Democrats, currently polling on a par with the Greens and Tories, who generally fare quite well midway through the parliamentary cycle.
One thing is for certain, though. Labour will be “decimated” in the elections and should “hang their heads in shame” over the handling of the Birmingham bin strike – another key battleground area.
Those weren’t the words from a political rival but a Trade Union boss.
Unite’s general secretary Sharon Graham said working people were moving away from Labour in droves and called on the party to “wake up and smell the coffee”.
“I think it would be impossible to see a situation where this didn’t have an effect on the May elections … It’s a lot less tribal the way that people vote,” she said.
Refuse workers in Birmingham began their industrial action over pay and conditions in January last year, and it escalated into an indefinite all-out strike two months later.
The strikes, which could last beyond September, will be a key issue in Birmingham when all 101 council seats are up for grabs.
This is an example of why local politics matters so much and can have such a huge impact on the national stage.
The results on May 8 will have a profound effect on the political landscape for the rest of this decade and will matter greatly as to how they could shape the next general election.
They may even bring about change in Prime Minister.
That is why May 7 is so important.
