Good morning. Microsoft announced yesterday that it created a new state of matter (something that is neither solid, liquid nor gas) in its quest to create a quantum computer. It’s a big step for science, but one that the market did not seem to care about: Microsoft was up on the news, but only by 1 per cent. Investors are zeroed in on the AI race; quantum computing might be the next frontier, but it’s not where the market is focused. Email me if you think the market should be: aiden.reiter@ft.com.
Chinese equities
Chinese equities are back in the conversation. Though they dominated headlines in October, after the Chinese government sparked a rally with promises of fiscal stimulus, investors lost interest when that spending spree never materialised. But since mid-January, there has been a sustained bull run; the MSCI China index is now near its October peak:
Some of this is cosmetic. In mid-January, Beijing directed state-owned insurance companies and money market funds to allocate more to Chinese equities — mechanically driving up prices and drawing in short-term investors hoping to make a buck. But there are fundamentals at work here, too. Investors are reassessing China’s tech prospects and the country’s ability to capitalise on AI.
Two developments changed the picture. First, Chinese company DeepSeek transformed the AI race. More recently, Alibaba founder Jack Ma — who has been out of the limelight since criticising government regulations in 2020 — appeared at a government symposium, where Chinese leader Xi Jinping seemed to embrace both Ma and the private sector. Tech has carried the broader market rally ever since; the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 infotech sub index is up 9 per cent since the start of the year, driven by domestic semiconductor companies and bigger AI players such as Alibaba and Tencent:
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In some regards, this reassessment was long overdue. The biggest publicly listed Chinese tech companies — Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, Baidu, Pinduoduo and JD.com — have all seen earnings growth since 2021 and are expected by analysts to see even bigger growth over the next two years. At the same time, their share prices have been thrown off course by regulation. The stocks have been collectively down after a series of crackdowns on the tech sector sent investors running for the hills. Chart courtesy of Gavekal Dragonomics:
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If Ma’s reappearance and Xi’s pronouncements are to be taken seriously, the government might get out of the tech sector’s way, and the stocks may approach their prior peaks. But, as is always the case with China, we do not know exactly what the government will do. Investor scepticism may run too deep for a full equity resurgence.
DeepSeek, however, represents a more enduring change. Investors have doubted if China could capitalise on AI in the same way as the US. Its companies have been barred from owning the best chips, and capex by its biggest players Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu has lagged US Big Tech’s runaway AI spending. DeepSeek demonstrated that Chinese companies could still compete on AI. And what its model means for the ecosystem — less need for high-end chips and the “commoditisation” of AI models— erases some of the US’s leads. We are already seeing evidence of these shifts. Apple made a deal with Alibaba to integrate Alibaba’s AI into iPhones sold in China, suggesting that Chinese AI is competitive. And Tencent announced it will use DeepSeek’s cheaper model rather than its own LLM, justifying its lower capex spending.
That is all not to say that Chinese companies have not spent on AI. Capex increased across big Chinese internet companies by 61 per cent last year, according to Goldman Sachs, but is still well below spending by the Magnificent 7. Spending by the biggest players has been particularly uneven — Alibaba and Baidu even saw capex decrease from 2022 to 2024 — but analysts expect spending to increase going forward.
There are other tailwinds to Chinese equities and the tech sector. The Chinese stimulus to date has been effective, including “some good news coming out of the housing market”, says Tianlei Huang of the Peterson Institute for International Economics; more stimulus is expected. US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China have also not been too punitive, and more analysts are starting to believe that there may be negotiations with China after all.
But whether tech stocks, and Chinese equities more broadly, can reach their former heights will depend on regulation. If China is serious about stepping out of tech’s way, this could be the start of a longer bull run.
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