Welcome to the latest edition of The Alternative Premier League Table, where, each week, The Athletic analyses the entire division through a specific lens: this time, it’s a festive glance at xG (expected goals) for and against.
As usual, the article that follows is long but detailed, so please settle down with a mince pie and enjoy it all — or use the index at the bottom of the page to jump to a specific club.
After Matchday 7, this column looked at how each team was performing against their xG, a measure of the quality of chances created.
Manchester United (12.3), Crystal Palace and Manchester City (both 11.4) led all teams back then, with Aston Villa (4.9), Burnley (4.6), and Newcastle (5.3) ranking near the bottom.
Similarly, after Matchday 11, we looked at xGA to understand which teams excelled defensively. Arsenal (5.7), Newcastle (9.1) and City (9.8) led, while Burnley (21.0), Nottingham Forest (16.2) and United (15.9) had conceded the most.
This week’s Alternative Table will use both metrics as its qualifier, helping us see how teams have progressed or regressed at both ends of the pitch. The first column is xG difference, which subtracts goals scored from xG, while the second (xGA difference) does the same with goals conceded.
Key takeaways include:
- Defensive kingpins Arsenal are the only side to record less than 10 xGA (9.9), with the next-best team (Newcastle on 18.7) conceding nearly twice that amount.
- Increasingly freewheeling Manchester City lead the league in xG with 33.3 and have scored 41 times, 10 more than anyone else.
- Aston Villa are second in both xG overperformance (27 goals for, from 18.6xG) and in xGA overperformance (18 goals against, from 23.4 xGA).
- Tottenham still lead the league in xG overperformance at 9.6, having done so after Matchday 7, too, with 4.1. Their 16.4 xG ranks 17th.
Manchester City
Across their current five-match Premier League winning streak, City have scored 17 goals from 11.3xG, having scored 24 from 21.98xG in their previous 12 league games. The quality of their efforts has improved from 0.13 to 0.16 xG per shot, with the team no longer solely reliant on striker Erling Haaland, though he has still scored five times during this five-game stretch.
City have shown the ability to pummel teams in multiple ways, too. Against Fulham and Crystal Palace, they scored eight times from just 18 shots (44 per cent conversion). In contrast, they wore down Leeds, Sunderland and West Ham with one shot after another (53 in total, 23 on target, nine goals).
Defensively, City have kept three league clean sheets in a row for the first time since November 2021. They have conceded 3.7 xG in these games, with Palace accounting for more than half (1.9) and spurning multiple chances. But Fulham scored four times from just 0.9 xG, too.
As they often do, City are trending upwards at both ends of the pitch right as we approach the second half of the season.
Manchester City have begun to share the goals out a bit more recently (Alex Pantling/Getty Images)
Arsenal
Arsenal still have the league’s meanest defence, but there have been recent signs of defensive frailty, particularly after injuries to Gabriel and William Saliba, their first-choice centre-backs.
In their past five matches, both Chelsea and Aston Villa have had more than 10 shots, and each put four or more on target. Both of those occurred only once in the previous 12 weeks — on the opening Sunday of the season against Manchester United (22 shots, seven on target). The 1-0 defeat of Everton on Saturday saw Arsenal win just 45 per cent of their duels, the third-lowest rate of their campaign so far behind those games with United (44 per cent) and Chelsea (43).
Villa and Wolves (who Arsenal beat 2-1) caused them problems from fast breaks, generating 0.23 xG and 0.15 xG respectively. Those rank second and fourth among Arsenal’s opponents. Manchester City created 0.57 xG from fast breaks during the teams’ 1-1 draw in September.
Up top, Arsenal have underperformed their xG in three of the past five matches. In one of the other two, they needed two own goals to beat last-placed Wolves.
Aston Villa
Villa’s surprise title challenge has been built on outperforming expectations.
They began the season by scoring no goals from nearly 3.0 xG in their first four league matches. Since then, they have scored 27 times from just 15.6 xG, an overperformance of more than 11 goals. They have underperformed their xG only twice in this stretch — a 2-0 loss to Liverpool and the 2-1 win against Arsenal.
Their xG per shot across the 17 matches of 0.09 is 19th, and only marginally better than bottom-ranked Sunderland. Thirteen of their 27 goals — including both Morgan Rogers’ strikes against Manchester United on Sunday — have been worth 0.1xG or lower. Only two have been valued at more than 0.4 xG. Rogers has overperformed his xG by a league-high 4.2 (seven goals from 2.8 xG).
Villa have had some luck defensively. Early in the season, Newcastle and Everton created 3.5 xG between them but failed to score. Their opponents have failed to score nine of their 15 best chances in xG terms, in part due to bad finishing but also thanks to heroics from first-choice goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez and his backup Marco Bizot.
Tottenham
Tottenham’s xG overperformance of 9.7 is the second most after 17 games by a Premier League team in the past five seasons, behind only the 2022-23 Manchester City side’s 13.3 (50 goals from 36.7 xG). The issue, however, is that among the top 23 performers on this list, their 16.4 xG generated is the lowest.
Spurs have generated more than 1.0 xG in seven of their matches, picking up six wins and a draw in them. In the other 10, they have won once (2-1 away to Leeds) while losing six times. Their xG totals of 0.07 against Arsenal and 0.12 against Chelsea are two of the five lowest single-match tallies since the start of the 2023-24 season, and they rank fifth from bottom for chances created (7.2 per 90 minutes), shots (9.9) and shots on target (3.3).
Tottenham’s opponents have simply matched expectations, scoring 23 times from 23.0 xG, but their defence is trending downwards. After conceding 10 goals from 15.4 xGA in their first 11 matches, they have allowed 13 from 7.6 xGA in the past six. During the same stretch, their xG overperformance has dropped to 1.8 (seven goals from 5.2 xG), closer to the league average of 1.1, compared to the 7.9 they managed in the first 11 games.
Spurs have conceded 23 goals from exactly 23.0 expected goals this season (Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images)
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace hold the record for the most xG generated in one game this season, putting up 4.4 in their 3-3 home draw with Bournemouth in October. Jean-Philippe Mateta, who scored a hat-trick in that match, is the league’s leader in underperformance at -3.2 (seven goals, including three penalties, from 10.2 xG).
That draw with Bournemouth was the fifth consecutive instance of them underperforming their xG, and the seventh in eight matches up to that point, with three wins and two draws during that run. Since then, Palace have underperformed their xG by only 1.9 in nine games (nine goals from 10.9 xG).
Their form has understandably oscillated depending on their finishing. When Palace have got 30 per cent or more of their shots on target, they have won four times and lost once. When they have not, they have lost three and drawn one. The recent defeats to Manchester City and Leeds saw them generate 3.5 xG but score just once. In contrast, the 3-0 defeat of Aston Villa in August saw them generate 0.44xG per shot, the highest in a game this season and second highest since the start of 2021-22.
In those matches with City and Leeds, Palace’s defence were outgunned, conceding seven times from just 3.9 xG. Despite that, their opponents have underperformed their xG overall (19 goals from 21.3xG). In eight of their 17 matches, Palace have conceded less than 1.0 xG, winning five and losing just once (1-0 to Arsenal).
Leeds
Leeds’ November holds the record so far this season for the worst month in xGA terms, conceding 10.3 xG and allowing 11 goals in four matches, all losses.
That necessitated a change in system that has proved more defensively solid, with less than 1.0 xG generated in two of the four matches since. Their 3-3 draw with Liverpool saw the champions overperform (three goals from 1.9 xG), but that was offset a little by Palace underperforming (one goal from 1.6 xG) in Saturday’s 4-1 defeat.
Manager Daniel Farke’s tactical switch has reaped benefits at the other end, too. Leeds’ two best matches in xG terms have come this month in wins against Chelsea (2.8 xG, a 3-1 win) and Palace (2.7 xG). Their xG per shot across these four games has been 0.13, a jump from the 0.11 in the previous 13.
Striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin has thrived in the new system, scoring six times from 4.8 xG in their past five matches after recording one goal from 2.2 xG in his first 10 appearances.
Leeds’ two best matches in xG terms have come this month (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
Chelsea
Chelsea have three players in the top 15 of the xG overperformance charts: Moises Caicedo (three goals from 0.6 xG), Trevoh Chalobah (three from 0.9 xG) and Pedro Neto (five from 3.0 xG). Simultaneously, they have also had the worst xG underperformance in a single game by any club in 2025-26 during their narrow win at Spurs (just one goal from 3.7 xG).
Creativity has been a concern in recent weeks — recording less than 1.0 xG in three of their past five games, after doing so twice in the previous 12. That changed against Everton on December 13 (two goals from 1.2 xG) but was back in the first half against Newcastle on Saturday (0.2 xG, 2-0 down). Enzo Maresca’s tactical switch at half-time in the latter helped them claw back from two down for a 2-2 draw (1.0 xG created).
More alarmingly, Chelsea have recorded more than 1.0 xGA in each of these five matches, returning to a trend from earlier in the season. They did the same for seven games in a row between August 30 and October 25, winning and losing three times each. Their September was the worst by any team in terms of xG per shot conceded this season, with their three opponents averaging 0.19 xG with each effort.
Their current run has seen similarly mixed results of three draws, a win and a loss, with their rivals averaging 0.15 xG per shot. Chelsea are also conceding 12.0 shots per game in this stretch, up from the 9.4 per 90 across the first 12 matches.
Newcastle
Newcastle’s first nine matches of the season saw them steadily underperform expectations, scoring nine times from 12.3 xG. They overperformed in two games — against Liverpool (two goals from 1.0 xG) and Arsenal (one from 0.6 xG) – and lost both. Their next six matches saw them rectify that, overperforming their xG four times, albeit winning just twice. Newcastle’s biggest underperformance came in their biggest win of the season — 2-1 against Manchester City (2.5 xG). They averaged 0.27 xG per shot in that one, third-best by a team in a game this season.
Worryingly, their defence has struggled after a start that saw them concede just 7.3 xG and eight goals in the first nine matches, with seven games of under 1.0 xGA. In their last eight outings, Eddie Howe’s side have allowed over 1.2 xG five times, including 1.8 to West Ham, currently third-bottom, and 1.6 to Burnley, who are one place lower.
Wolves
Wolves rank bottom for xG (14.9), goals scored (nine), goals against (37) and, most importantly, points (two).
There are a few slivers of hope to cling onto, though. Their 0.10 xG per shot would place them 15th, and their 25.9 xGA is better than West Ham and Burnley for that metric. Wolves’ opponents have overperformed expectations by 11.1, comfortably the highest mark in the league. Since the start of 2021-22, only one team have been subject to a similar overperformance after 17 matches of a season — and that was Wolves a year ago (11.6 with 40 goals conceded from 28.3 xGA).
That being said, they have conceded 1.25 xG or more 10 times, including three games of over 2.0 xG. At the other end, they have created more than 1.0 xG on just six occasions and managed less than 0.5 xG in five matches, three of which they lost by a single goal.
In contrast, the 2024-25 version of Wolves had created more than 1.0 xG 10 times, winning three and drawing two of those games. They also had a weaker promoted class below them in the table, which this season’s team certainly do not.
Liverpool
Given their recent struggles, it is easy to forget Liverpool began the season with five straight wins, scoring 11 goals in those matches from just under 7.0 xG. Barring the 4-2 opening-weekend win against Bournemouth, they also conceded less than 1.0 xG in each of those games.
Their struggles over the next seven outings (six losses, one win) saw that reversed. They overperformed their xG just once (the 2-0 win against Aston Villa, 1.2 xG), while scoring five goals from 11.8 xG otherwise. Across those six losses, they conceded 1.0 xG or more in each match and 15 goals in total from 11.1 xGA.
Liverpool’s current five-game unbeaten streak has seen their numbers revert once again. They have overperformed expectations by 2.8 (10 goals from 7.2 xG), while conceding five times from 5.3 xG.
Across these fixtures, they are conceding the fourth-fewest shots on target (3.4 per 90), having allowed the 16th-most (5.9 per 90 minutes) during that seven-game barren streak. At the other end, they have managed 4.8 shots on target per 90 with 32 per cent accuracy — up from 3.7 per 90 and 23 per cent.
Manchester United
Like Liverpool, Manchester United have seen a reversal in trends.
Across their first six matches (two wins, three losses, one draw), they overperformed their xG only in the 2-1 defeat of a Chelsea side down to 10 men from the fifth minute, scoring seven goals from 12.3 xG. United’s 11 games since have seen a slight uptick, creating 20.2 xG and scoring 24 goals, though 12 have come against Brighton, Wolves and Bournemouth from 8.9 xG. Significantly, United’s overall shot conversion has improved from seven to 13 per cent.
Defensively, however, the numbers have remained about the same. United did not keep a clean sheet in those first six matches and allowed more than 1.2 xG in every game apart from the Chelsea win, conceding 11 times from 9.3 xGA. In the 11 since, they have just one clean sheet while allowing 17 goals from 14.3 xG, with Bournemouth (four scored from 1.9 xG) the major outlier.
To their credit, they are conceding lower-quality chances. Their first six opponents averaged 0.17 xG per shot, the worst of any team in that timeframe. Across the next 11 matches, that has dropped to 0.11 (eighth-best).
Manchester United are improving, and their underlying numbers show it (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Brighton
Brighton are responsible for the best month in terms of xG per shot this season, managing 0.18 per attempt in August. But they scored just three goals from that cumulative 6.2 xG to end up recording a win, a draw and a loss. That -3.2 difference is the worst by a team across a month in 2025-26 so far.
They hold the second-worst record in that regard too, scoring just four goals from 7.1 xG in four games this month (-3.1), losing twice and drawing twice. Their final match of the year is away to leaders Arsenal, which may not provide much hope in correcting that trend.
In line with their inconsistent season, Brighton also recorded the second-worst month by a team in xG per shot terms, averaging just 0.06 across their three matches in October. Interestingly, they scored five goals from just under 3.0 xG during that stretch but managed a win, a draw and a defeat again.
Defensively, Brighton have conceded 1.2 xG or more 12 times in the 17 games and are on pace to equal or break the 25 they managed throughout 2024-25. They own two of the four worst performances in terms of shots on target conceded, allowing 11 in both the 4-3 loss to Aston Villa and nine in a 4-2 defeat against Manchester United.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth’s fast start saw them score 16 goals from 11.1 xG in their first nine matches, winning five times and losing just once. That has regressed in the next eight, with 10 goals from 13.3 xG, including three games without a goal despite managing 3.6 xG across those outings.
The larger problem has been at the other end of the pitch. That strong beginning to the season saw Bournemouth record fewer than 1.0 xGA in six of the first nine games, conceding 11 goals (from 11.2 xGA) and keeping four clean sheets. That has dropped in the past eight, with just one clean sheet and 18 goals conceded (from 12.2 xGA).
Bournemouth have conceded 5.1 shots on target per 90 minutes in this stretch, third-worst behind West Ham (6.3) and Wolves (5.6). Simultaneously, their opponents have converted 18 per cent of their chances — highest in the league.
The difference between home and away is stark, too. In nine games at the Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth have conceded just six goals from 5.9 xGA (both second best), with opponents averaging 0.09 xG per shot (third best). In eight games on their travels, those numbers jump to 23, 17.5 xG (both second worst) and 0.13 xG per shot (fifth worst) respectively.
Brentford
Brentford lead the Premier League in xG per shot at 0.15, with Igor Thiago (0.25) also first among players with five or more shots. Seventy-nine per cent of their shots come from inside the box with 41 per cent overall accuracy, both the best marks in the division. Their 15 per cent conversion rate is only bettered by Manchester City (17) and Tottenham (16).
Their issue has been creating opportunities when their access to the opposition penalty area is shut down. They have averaged 13.4 shots per 90 minutes, 83 per cent from inside the 18-yard box, in wins, with those numbers dropping to 7.1 and 73 per cent in draws and losses.
Brentford have avoided any wild oscillations in performance within games as a result. They are the only team apart from Wolves to not overperform their xG by more than 1.0 in a match this season, and have also not underperformed their xG by more than 1.0 in any game.
At the other end, Brentford have regularly invited pressure, conceding 12.5 shots per 90 but have limited opponents to 31 per cent accuracy, the fourth-lowest figure in the league. They have recorded over 1.2 xGA 10 times, including in each of their past four matches (five goals conceded, from 6.7 xGA), when their attack has faltered (three goals scored from 2.5 xG).
Sunderland
Promoted Sunderland’s season has been built on defying expectations, and they have done a good job of it, with 19 goals scored from 14.9 xG.
Three of their biggest xG overperformances led to impressive wins against West Ham (3-0) and Bournemouth (3-2) and a 2-2 draw with Arsenal. Their eight goals in those matches came from just 2.6 xG. Sunderland’s biggest underperformance was this past weekend against Brighton (a 0-0 draw, 1.4xG).
Sunderland’s creativity numbers have remained consistent despite injury issues, as they prioritise quality over quantity. They rank third-last in shots at 9.6 per 90 minutes, but 72 per cent have been from inside the box (fourth-best) and their 12 per cent conversion rate is a respectable ninth.
Their success in the first half of the campaign has been built on a solid defensive base. They have limited teams to less than 1.0 xG on six occasions, winning four of those matches and drawing two, and their opponents have averaged just 0.09 xG per shot, second-lowest in the division behind table-topping Arsenal.
Robin Roefs has been a key part of Sunderland’s defensive solidity (Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)
Fulham
Fulham suffered from a lack of goals in their first nine matches, scoring just nine from 9.3 xG, although two of them were own goals. They have picked it up in the past eight games with 15 from 9.6 xG.
Harry Wilson’s four goals from 2.5 xG in this stretch represent the fourth-highest overperformance in the division behind Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers, Phil Foden of Manchester City and Liverpool’s Hugo Ekitike. The recent 3-2 win against Burnley saw them average 0.33 xG per shot, the second most in a single game in 2025-26.
That lack of goals was partly due to an inability to get high-quality attempts away from the centre of the opposition box, as the below chart of Fulham’s shooting zones shows.
Their defence has picked up during this stretch, too.
Barring the wild 5-4 loss to Manchester City, Fulham have conceded seven goals in seven games from 7.6 xG while keeping three clean sheets. Opponents have averaged only 2.0 clear shots per 90 minutes in this stretch (joint eighth-best in the division), down from 2.8 (joint second-worst) in the previous nine matches.
Burnley
Burnley have scored the same number of goals as Sunderland (19) with a similar xG (15.0 vs 14.9) and better shot quality (0.10 vs 0.09).
But while Sunderland have controlled matches when ahead with resolute defending, Burnley have struggled to establish leads, doing so just four times all season, with three of those ending in them winning the match. They have finished a league-best 54 per cent of their big chances but rank joint-fifth-bottom with Nottingham Forest in volume of those chances (1.7 per 90 minutes).
Much of the positives in their attacking play have been negated by the defence, with too many chances conceded despite a focus on staying solid at the back.
Burnley have recorded a league-worst 34.6 xGA, sixth-bottom after 17 games among all teams since the start of 2022-23. The only five sides worse than them in that metric — last season’s Southampton, Ipswich and Leicester and Luton Town and Sheffield United from a year earlier — were all relegated.
Everton
Everton recorded 1.6 xG or more in four of their first seven matches, winning three of them and drawing two. Since then, they have done it once, coming out on top in four of the 10 games.
The past six outings have been a concern, with Everton creating just under five xG to score six goals. Only Sunderland (4.5 xG) have shown less in attack than them in the same period of time. Saturday’s 1-0 home loss to Arsenal saw them average 0.04 xG per shot, the fourth-worst single-game mark of the season, albeit it was against the division’s best defence.
Worryingly, and unlike a David Moyes team, their defence has struggled according to the underlying numbers. Everton have conceded 1.5 xG or more on nine occasions and lost six of those matches, while being beaten just once in the other eight games (four wins, three draws).
Goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has had two of the seven best games in terms of goals prevented — the 1-0 win against Manchester United (1.9) and the 2-0 defeat of Brighton (1.5).
West Ham
West Ham have needed to create plenty of chances to win games in 2025-26.
Their three victories — against Forest (3-0), Newcastle (3-1) and Burnley (3-2) — have seen them generate 7.3 xG, roughly 41 per cent of their season total of 17.6 xG. On a per-90-minutes basis, the 2.4 xG and 0.17 xG per shot they have had in those matches would both rank first in the league.
The issue, of course, is that maintaining that level of productivity is impossible, and the drop-off in other games has been steep. In losses and draws, West Ham’s 0.7 xG per 90 and 0.08 xG per shot rank 17th and 16th in the league respectively.
The formula can be viewed on the defensive end, too. Their 0.8 xGA per 90 in those wins ranks third behind Arsenal (0.4) and Bournemouth (0.5). In losses and draws, that number rises to 1.9, ranking them only ahead of Burnley (2.1).
Nottingham Forest
Despite losing at Fulham on Monday, Nottingham Forest are one of the form teams in a muddled bottom half of the league, with four wins from their past seven matches. In those victories, they have scored three goals three times, with the nine combined strikes coming from 6.5 xG.
Before this, Forest had won just once in their 10 games. They failed to score in six of the 10, despite generating 5.4 xG, with 2.2 xG coming in the 3-0 loss to Chelsea in October which ended Ange Postecoglou’s brief reign at the City Ground.
This current run has also seen their defence improve, with less than 1.0 xGA in three of those four wins, having managed that just twice in their first 10 matches.
The 3-0 win against Tottenham this month was their most clinical performance of the season on both ends, creating 2.3 xG and limiting the opposition to just 0.3xG. Head coach Sean Dyche will want to see more of that in their festive-season fixtures.
