President Donald Trump’s back and forth on tariffs is escalating tensions between the U.S. and two of Oregon’s biggest trade partners, Canada and Mexico.

In 2024, Oregon imported $3.8 billion worth of goods and parts from Canada, and exported $3.3 billion, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Division, accessed through wisertrade.org.

The same year, the state imported just $840 million from Mexico. However, at $6.3 billion worth of goods, materials and resources, Oregon exported more to Mexico than to any other country.

The Trump administration argues tariffs will increase domestic manufacturing, raise government revenue, lower consumer prices and spur economic development in the country. Economists warn the move will do the opposite while inviting retaliation from global trading partners.

“We’re hearing a lot of rumors of what may be coming down the pike,” John Murphy, international trade expert with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, told OPB on a recent trip to Portland. “But if you’re a business executive, you’re there in the C-suite, you’re trying to decide if you’re going to go ahead and hire dozens of new workers, or maybe you’re going to put a new plant in this state or that state. This kind of environment is not conducive to that.”

Instead, Murphy said businesses will likely pull back on investments until uncertainty dies down. He said that pause could have a “chilling effect on the economy.”

This week, President Trump’s import tax targets are steel and aluminum, both used in Oregon industries ranging from semiconductors to craft brewing. Federal trade numbers show Oregon imported more than $300 million worth of steel, iron and aluminum last year, mostly from Canada.

“Certainly when you’re talking about tariffs as high as 25% or higher,” Murphy said, “that can be a game changer for American companies that are trying to sell their products overseas or that are trying to source inputs and materials that they just can’t get domestically.”

Although Trump has threatened a broad swath of tariffs on all global trading partners, Murphy said he’s especially watching how things play out between the U.S. and its North American neighbors.

The absence of trade barriers with Canada and Mexico has helped spur the development of manufacturing facilities across the continent. Murphy points to things like cars: over the last few decades auto manufacturers have gotten used to sending parts between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico multiple times while building one car.

It would take years, not months, to dismantle and rebuild that type of supply chain.

“It’s really important in the eyes of the business community to back off of these tariff threats on Canada and Mexico,” Murphy said.