When Tottenham Hotspur were last relegated in 1977, club captain Steve Perryman called it “a relief.” The “years of mediocrity and worse” had finally been put to a definitive end.
Given the financial landscape of modern football, dropping out of the Premier League would represent an unmitigated catastrophe rather than offer any whisper of consolation.
Tottenham are clearly concerned. “Results and performances have led the board to conclude that a change at this point in the season is necessary,” a painfully brief statement read after news of Thomas Frank’s sacking broke on Wednesday morning.
Frank’s last act was a limp 2–1 defeat to Newcastle United which left Spurs 16th in the top flight, a mere five points above the relegation zone. With a daunting run of fixtures on the horizon, no manager in the dugout and a treatment room stuffed to bursting point, Tottenham could soon discover whether relegation is in fact a relief.
Supercomputer Predicts Tottenham’s 2025–26 Premier League Season
As poor as Spurs have been, Opta’s supercomputer still only gives them a 3.95% chance of tumbling out of the division. Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley are both effectively consigned to demotion already, while West Ham United currently occupy the less concrete position of 18th.
Such has been the remarkable uptick in performances and points tally over recent weeks that West Ham could justifiably be disheartened by only drawing with Manchester United. Despite this concussive upward trajectory, the supercomputer rates the Hammers as the most likely demotion candidates with a likelihood of 74.57%.
Nottingham Forest are next on the chopping block (15.15%) while Leeds United—who are one point better off than Spurs with 26 games of the campaign already elapsed—are given a marginally higher 4.82% chance of dropping into the Championship than the north Londoners.
Spurs are expected to end the campaign where they currently sit, in 16th place. As Frank may be inclined to point out, that would be an improvement on the Premier League era record-low 17th place which Ange Postecoglou oversaw last term. Yet, the divisive Australian boss had a gleaming, drought-ending Europa League trophy to at least balance his domestic disaster.
Frank did manage to steer Spurs into fourth place across the initial league phase of this season’s Champions League—although that rather proves to be more of a damning indictment on the rest of Europe with each passing Premier League defeat for Tottenham.
|
Position |
Likelihood of Finishing There |
|---|---|
|
1st–5th |
0% |
|
6th |
0.11% |
|
7th |
0.23% |
|
8th |
1.06% |
|
9th |
1.57% |
|
10th |
2.81% |
|
11th |
4.62% |
|
12th |
7.24% |
|
13th |
9.88% |
|
14th |
12.99% |
|
15th |
18.45% |
|
16th |
20.60% |
|
17th |
16.46% |
|
18th |
3.95% |
|
19th–20th |
0% |
Tottenham’s Next Five Premier League Fixtures
It may get worse before it gets better for Spurs. The new-look executive board in the absence of Daniel Levy will have more than a week to find a successor—be that a stop-gap ahead of a permanent hire in the summer or otherwise—before next Sunday’s north London derby.
Frank, who has been bizarrely accused by a report in The Telegraph of having an unhealthy “obsession” with the Gunners, will surely be watching the clash with some intrigue. Eberechi Eze memorably became the first player to score a Premier League hat-trick in the fixture when these sides met at the Emirates in November and hasn’t found the net in any competition since. It would be just Tottenham’s luck to again inspire the player they came so close to signing last summer.
An always testing trip to Fulham awaits at the start of March, before another London derby against Crystal Palace. Given their current priorities, the visit from struggling Nottingham Forest may very well be of more importance than the trek up to Liverpool’s Anfield.
|
Date |
Opponent |
|---|---|
|
Sunday, Feb. 22 |
Arsenal (H) |
|
Sunday, March 1 |
Fulham (A) |
|
Thursday, March 5 |
Crystal Palace (H) |
|
Sunday, March 15 |
Liverpool (A) |
|
Sunday, March 22 |
Nottingham Forest (H) |
