The latest round of Premier League action brought with it confirmation of the first team to be relegated to the Championship.
Wolverhampton Wanderers have had a spot saved for them in England’s second tier for months now, and it is only a matter of time before Burnley’s drop is confirmed as well. Which unlucky team will join the pair is yet to be decided.
Tottenham Hotspur impressed against high-flyers Brighton & Hove Albion but succumbed to a 95th-minute equalizer that left them sitting 18th in the standings. Fortunately for Roberto De Zerbi’s side, West Ham United failed to take advantage on Monday.
A 0–0 draw against Crystal Palace was enough to demote Wolves but it did little to ease West Ham’s relegation fears. Nuno Espírito Santo’s Hammers are two points clear with five games to play, while even Nottingham Forest’s five-point cushion is not secure at this late stage of the season.
With five games left to play, here’s how the Opta supercomputer sees the relegation battle playing out.
Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Relegation Battle
The already-relegated Wolves sit at 100% chance of relegation (obviously) and Burnley, despite still having a mathematical chance of survival, are given the same odds.
Scott Parker’s side face the unenviable task of having to avoid defeat against title-hopefuls Manchester City on Wednesday to postpone their relegation. A loss would guarantee a spot in the Championship next season and even an unlikely draw would effectively seal it, given Burnley’s poor goal difference.
Above those two is where the true drama lies and, unfortunately for Spurs fans, it is De Zerbi’s side who are still backed for the drop.
|
Position |
Team |
Current Points |
Expected Points |
Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
16. |
Nott’m Forest |
36 |
42.00 |
4.38% |
|
17. |
West Ham |
33 |
38.54 |
36.90% |
|
18. |
Tottenham |
31 |
36.88 |
58.33% |
|
19. |
Burnley |
20 |
24.16 |
100.00% |
|
20. |
Wolves |
17 |
22.90 |
100.00% |
Spurs currently sit two points behind West Ham and are not predicted to close that gap over their remaining five fixtures.
A trip to bottom side Wolves next weekend will offer Spurs the best possible chance to boost morale and there is also a winnable meeting with 15th-placed Leeds United to look forward to, but tricky games against Aston Villa, Chelsea and Everton could cause significant problems.
As for West Ham, their fixture list actually looks slightly tougher. Everton, Brentford, Arsenal and Newcastle United precede a final day meeting with Leeds, meaning Nuno’s side will have to work hard for their survival.
Working in West Ham’s favor, however, is their superior form. The Hammers have two wins and a pair of draws from their last five games, and anything remotely similar would almost certainly be enough to secure their safety.
Spurs, meanwhile, have to go back to Dec. 28 for their most recent Premier League win. This year has brought European triumphs over Atlético Madrid, Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund, but Spurs’ domestic form has been nothing short of woeful in 2026.
De Zerbi will expect to end that winless run against Wolves and will have no greater opportunity to do so.
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