For the fifth time in their history, Arsenal spend Christmas Day at the top of the Premier League table.
Mikel Arteta’s defensively dominant outfit have been leading the charge all season but entered the festive period in comparatively underwhelming form, allowing Manchester City to close the gap from seven points to just two.
With Aston Villa emerging as genuine threats to the elite and the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool clinging on with everything they have got, the 2025–26 Premier League title race promises to be an enthralling one over the second half of the campaign.
17 of the previous 33 leaders at Christmas have gone on to win the title, but Arsenal will not be getting ahead of themselves just yet. After all, the Gunners account for three of the 16 slip-ups, including two in the last three seasons.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer sees the second half of the campaign playing out.
FREE NEWSLETTER. New SI FC Newsletter Global Embed. Sign Up to Get Informed With SI FC. dark
|
Rank |
Team |
Current Points |
Expected Points |
% Chance of Winning Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Arsenal |
39 |
82.46 |
68.7 |
|
2. |
Man City |
37 |
76.79 |
24.4 |
|
3. |
Aston Villa |
36 |
71.43 |
– |
While we’re looking at a three-horse race on Christmas, the supercomputer sees Aston Villa slowly start to fade away, although Unai Emery’s side are still seen as the favourites to land themselves in third when the dust settles next May.
Instead, it is Arsenal who retain their lead in this simulation. A tricky run of form across December, impacted heavily be injuries, has left them in a fight but the Gunners are still seen as comfortable favourites, with their title hopes rated at 68.7%.
Man City’s bid to close the gap has been successful thus far but, according to the supercomputer, will ultimately fail. Pep Guardiola’s side are expected to finish up around six points behind Arsenal and have just a 24.4% chance of lifting the trophy.
Much could come down to the final weeks of the season. City play host to Arsenal on April 18 with seven games left to go and even end their campaign at home to Villa.
Arsenal’s run-in is much kinder, but does include a tricky meeting with Newcastle United and a final-day clash with giant killers Crystal Palace.
|
Rank |
Team |
Current Points |
Expected Points |
|---|---|---|---|
|
4. |
Liverpool |
29 |
65.97 |
|
5. |
Chelsea |
29 |
62.71 |
|
6. |
Crystal Palace |
26 |
55.85 |
|
7. |
Man Utd |
26 |
55.27 |
|
8. |
Newcastle |
23 |
55.12 |
|
9. |
Brighton |
24 |
53.87 |
|
10. |
Brentford |
23 |
51.81 |
|
11. |
Everton |
24 |
51.12 |
|
12. |
Sunderland |
27 |
50.83 |
Reigning champions Liverpool are almost certain to lose their crown, given just a 0.97% chance of winning the title after a miserable start to the season, but there is evidently confidence that the worst is behind Arne Slot’s side.
The Reds are backed to fight their way up to fourth, surviving a battle with Chelsea which could ultimately be decided when these sides meet in the second week of May. Thankfully for Enzo Maresca, fifth is almost certain to be enough to guarantee Champions League football.
Crystal Palace are the unlucky side leading the chasing pack, although few Eagles fans would be disappointed by the sight of their side in sixth and sealing a spot in the Europa League—a fitting parting gift for captain Marc Guéhi.
Palace are given a 0% chance of winning the title, but interestingly, Manchester United have 0.01% to their name despite being backed to finish seventh. A spot in the Europa League would await Ruben Amorim’s side.
Behind them, Newcastle United are backed to seal eighth after a slow start to the season, completing a drastic reverse of the fortunes predicted for fierce rivals Sunderland. Régis Le Bris’s side will spend Christmas in sixth but are tipped to fall as far as 12th over the next six months.
In between the Tyne-Wear rivals are Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford and Everton, who will all be fighting for a spot in the Conference League.
|
Rank |
Team |
Current Points |
Expected Points |
|---|---|---|---|
|
13. |
Tottenham |
22 |
49.97 |
|
14. |
Fulham |
23 |
48.67 |
|
15. |
Bournemouth |
22 |
48.63 |
|
16. |
Nott’m Forest |
18 |
42.74 |
|
17. |
Leeds |
19 |
41.44 |
|
18. |
West Ham |
13 |
36.23 |
|
19. |
Burnley |
11 |
30.54 |
|
20. |
Wolves |
2 |
18.95 |
40 points is famously seen as the threshold for survival, and the supercomputer expects that to be the case this season.
Tottenham Hotspur should be far away enough to avoid any real scare, even if they sight of them in the bottom of the table for a second consecutive season is enough to cause nightmares for any fan of Thomas Frank’s side.
Both Fulham and Bournemouth will enter mid-table obscurity before the season comes to a close, eight points above the magic 40. Below them, however, are five teams set to fight for their lives over the second half of the season.
Nottingham Forest have underwhelmed dramatically so far but the supercomputer sees Sean Dyche’s side fight their way clear of a battle, with Leeds United also doing enough to book their place in the division next season.
Next. The Top 50 Premier League Players of All Time. The Top 50 Premier League Players of All Time. dark
Below them, however, sits the current bottom three. West Ham United are tipped for relegation with around 36 points—five adrift from safety—while Burnley also fail to avoid the drop with a final points total of around 30.
Rock bottom sit Wolverhampton Wanderers, who are predicted to pick up around 19 points by the time the season ends—a generous forecast for a side who have only managed two draws and 15 losses to date.
Survival seems almost impossible for Wolves, whose focus must now turn to the battle to avoid becoming the single worst team in Premier League history.
Derby County hold that current honour with 11 points to their name in 2007–08, but even that impossibly low return seems ambitious based on the current trajectory of Rob Edwards’ side.
