The first half of the 2025–26 Premier League season is done and dusted, and Arsenal came out of Gameweek 19 with the edge over their two biggest competitions, Manchester City and Aston Villa.

A dizzying festive period, the opening of the winter transfer window and the shock departure of Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca set the stage for a mouthwatering final five months in the English top flight. To add to the drama, a flurry of head-turning results shook up the Premier League table.

Manchester City, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur all dropped points in their latest fixtures, while the Gunners went into the new year with three points thanks to a 4–1 victory over Unai Emery’s men.

What was beginning to look like a reignited title race suddenly sees Mikel Arteta’s men with a four-point cushion to the Cityzens. Still, with 19 games left to play in the 2025–26 campaign, a few stumbles could see the fight for the English crown once again blown right open.

Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the Premier League title race to pan out in the second half of the season.

Premier League Title Race

After such a statement victory over Aston Villa, it comes as no surprise that Arsenal are still Opta’s pick to win the league. The supercomputer gives the Gunners a whopping 78.98% chance to hoist the Premier League title in May.

Arteta’s men are expected to end the season with around 84 points, the same total Liverpool recorded in last season’s title-winning campaign. Trailing the north London outfit by around seven points would be predicted runners-up, Man City.

The Cityzens’ electric run of form to close out the year got Pep Guardiola’s side right back in the title race, but a disappointing goalless draw with Sunderland puts the former English champions on the back foot.

Opta now only gives Man City a 16.69% chance of topping the league. The double-digit percentage is nothing to scoff at, especially compared to the chances of Aston Villa, but the team’s projected 77 points will not be enough to claim their ninth Premier League title.

The Villans perhaps started dreaming of championship glory amid their 11-game winning streak, but a humbling defeat at the Emirates re-centred expectations. Still, a third-place finish would be the club’s highest finish since 1993.

Champions League Spots

Outside of the top clubs fighting for the English crown, several teams are battling to finish in the Champions League places. It is likely that the top five teams in the Premier League will secure a spot in UEFA’s premier club competition.

Despite their nightmare title defence, Liverpool are still expected to salvage their season by at least qualifying for the Champions League. The Reds are projected to finish fourth with just 65 points to their name.

Things aren’t going much better for Chelsea, who now have just one league win in their last seven matches following a 2–2 draw with Bournemouth. Although the Blues currently have a 20.71% chance of keeping their place in the Champions League, they could see their chances—and their placing—plummet without a turn in form.

Man Utd, meanwhile, have taken advantage of Liverpool and Chelsea’s struggles to climb their way up the table. Just one season after coming in 15th, the Red Devils are now projected to finish in sixth place with around 56 points, securing their return to European football.

Not far behind are Newcastle United, Everton and Brentford. Opta has the Magpies earning just one point fewer than Ruben Amorim’s side, with the Toffees and the Bees ending on 53 points. Such a congested table means just one blunder from Man Utd could be the difference between sixth and ninth place.

Firmly on the outside looking in are Tottenham, who will have to enjoy their time in the Champions League before their predicted 10th-place finish dashes any re-qualification hopes. Fifty-two points for Thomas Frank’s men will not be enough for even a Conference League spot.

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