Mikel Arteta welcomed the deserved criticism raining down upon his Arsenal side after their slip-up against Wolverhampton Wanderers in midweek. “We need to go through the pain,” he warned his players. “We need to keep all that in our tummies to show it on Sunday.”
That hurt burst forth in the form of a 4–1 thumping against Tottenham Hotspur, which represented Arsenal’s largest league victory away to their arch rivals since 1978.
There were some shaky moments for Arteta’s title challengers to stutter through—this limp iteration of an injury-riddled Spurs side were level with the Gunners at 1–1 heading into half time—yet they managed to restore their advantage at the Premier League summit to five points.
Whether this weekend’s result was a question of Arsenal’s reinforced mental strength or simply Tottenham’s inferiority is a topic of major debate. In the eyes of Opta’s all-seeing supercomputer, it certainly boosted the Gunners’ title ambitions.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Race
Eberechi Eze has scored seven in his last three games vs Spurs. pic.twitter.com/Q7K8SAlkOO
— Sports Illustrated FC (@SI_FootballClub) February 22, 2026
|
Position |
Club |
Current Points |
Expected Points |
Title Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Arsenal |
61 |
81.50 |
82.33% |
|
2. |
Man City |
56 |
75.82 |
16.92% |
“This chapter we wanted to write it,” a giddy Arteta beamed when the question of the title race was put to him on the weekend. “We have managed today.” Opta are incredibly confident that Arsenal will manage to reset their narrative by the end of May as well, with the Gunners given a bizarrely lofty 82.33% chance of winning the title.
Pep Guardiola’s cocktail-sipping Manchester City are only afforded a 16.92% likelihood of success. Much like their closest challengers, the perennial champions displayed plenty of weaknesses during their weekend win. Newcastle United had several sights of goal and were the better team for the second half of an unfortunate 2–1 defeat at the Etihad on Saturday night.
Such was Guardiola’s satisfaction with the scratchy triumph, he handed his players three days off. “Enjoy life,” was his advice. The Catalan coach promised to take the same approach and wasn’t even sure he would watch Arsenal’s trip to Tottenham. “I am on holiday so don’t know,” he wryly claimed.
Had Guardiola tuned in for the north London derby, he would have taken great pleasure in the large spurts of nervous energy pervading through the Gunners across the first half. A defence which began the season chasing down Chelsea’s Premier League benchmark of 15 goals conceded is suddenly susceptible to all the might of Randal Kolo Muani.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Race
|
Position |
Club |
Current Points |
Expected Points |
Qualification Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3. |
Aston Villa |
51 |
69.59 |
88.68% |
|
4. |
Chelsea |
45 |
61.05 |
23.80% |
|
5. |
Man Utd |
45 |
62.39 |
32.10% |
|
6. |
Liverpool |
45 |
64.34 |
51.63% |
|
7. |
Brentford |
40 |
55.99 |
2.60% |
|
8. |
Bournemouth |
38 |
53.61 |
0.57% |
|
9. |
Everton |
37 |
51.85 |
0.24% |
|
10. |
Fulham |
37 |
51.14 |
0.11% |
|
11. |
Newcastle |
36 |
52.69 |
0.38% |
“In your head, Arne, Arne, Arne,” Nottingham Forest fans chanted to the tune of ‘Zombie’ by the Cranberries for the vast majority of a dominant display against the reigning Premier League champions. Yet, by the end of a chaotic sequence of VAR decisions, it was Liverpool’s Arne Slot who soaked up the acclaim for a scarcely deserved 1–0 win.
“Happiness and relief” was the heady cocktail of emotions the Dutch boss was left to feel following a smash-and-grab triumph which saw Liverpool outshot 10 to 18. “The first half wasn’t good at all,” match-winner Alexis Mac Allister admitted. “The second half, I wouldn’t say it was good but it was better.”
However they cobbled their way to them, those three points could prove incredibly important when set to the backdrop of the devilishly tight race for Champions League qualification. Liverpool may be the side sitting in sixth but they are the ones given the best chance of joining Aston Villa and the division’s title challengers in the top six.
Chelsea slipped behind Manchester United in this week’s predictions with a second success Premier League draw at home to newly promoted opposition. Wesley Fofana’s boneheaded red card paved the way for an entirely avoidable stoppage-time equaliser from Zian Flemming at a corner. The complete breakdown in communication over who to mark almost contributed to a late winner from the visitors.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Relegation Battle
|
Position |
Club |
Current Points |
Expected Points |
Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
15. |
Leeds |
31 |
45.23 |
2.48% |
|
16. |
Tottenham |
29 |
43.53 |
4.58% |
|
17. |
Nottingham Forest |
27 |
39.78 |
22.20% |
|
18. |
West Ham |
25 |
35.90 |
71.66% |
|
19. |
Burnley |
19 |
29.12 |
97.76% |
|
20. |
Wolves |
10 |
19.53 |
100.00% |
When Igor Tudor took on the daunting task of a Tottenham side in free fall, he was asked to rate the team’s chances of survival. “100%,” he declared ahead of Sunday’s derby. Opta’s supercomputer isn’t so optimistic, even if Spurs avoid a humiliating demotion in the vast majority of projected outcomes.
Despite ranking as the ninth richest club on the planet, Tottenham are expected to finish 16th in England’s top flight, below newly promoted Leeds United. Nottingham Forest, who were denied so cruelly by Liverpool at the City Ground this weekend, are only two points above West Ham United, yet remain considerably less likely to slip out of the division’s trap door than the east London outfit.
The Hammers were held to a goalless stalemate by Bournemouth this weekend but boast the momentum in this relegation shootout with Forest. Since losing to the Tricky Trees in the second week of January, West Ham have amassed almost twice as many points as Forest over the subsequent six league games (11 compared to six). Only five teams in the division have enjoyed a stronger run of form than Nuno Espírito Santo’s battlers.
Nuno’s former employers, Wolverhampton Wanderers, have taken just three points during this spell and are consigned to the drop by every onlooker. Burnley are likely to suffer the same fate, although their stoppage-time comeback against Chelsea proves that even clubs with seemingly nothing to play for can still bloody the nose of others.
