Charles Liang, CEO of Super Micro Computer Inc., during the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on June 5, 2024.
Annabelle Chih | Bloomberg | Getty Images
For Super Micro Computer, the wild ride never seems to end.
Following a tumultuous 2024 that saw the stock soar to new highs and get added to the S&P 500 in March before cratering by 85% over the next eight months, shares of the server maker are back on the rise.
Heading into the company quarterly earnings report on Tuesday after the bell, Super Micro shares have jumped 59% in the past five trading days, including an 18% surge on Monday. They’re now up 40% since the start of 2025, compared to a 2.1% gain in the Nasdaq.
The bullish story on Super Micro is all about the company’s central position in the booming artificial intelligence market, where it sells servers packed with Nvidia’s graphics processing units, competing for business with the likes of Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
Revenue has more than doubled in three straight quarters thanks to soaring demand for AI infrastructure. Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft intend to spend as much as $320 billion combined on AI technologies and data center buildouts in 2025, based on recent comments from top execs.
Analysts are expecting Super Micro to report a revenue increase of about 60% for the December quarter to $5.89 billion, according to a consensus from LSEG.
The bears, however, aren’t sure what numbers to trust. Super Micro hasn’t filed its audited financials for its last fiscal year or quarter. In August 2024, Hindeburg Research revealed a short position in the company, alleging “fresh evidence of accounting manipulation.” Later that week, the AI server maker delayed releasing its annual report for the year.
The stock plummeted 38% in August and the downdraft picked up steam from there. In September, the Department of Justice reportedly opened a probe into the company. In late October, Ernst & Young resigned as Super Micro’s auditor after raising concerns about the company’s governance, financial control and the board’s independence.
“We are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management’s and the Audit Committee’s representations,” the firm wrote in its resignation letter.
Pressure to perform
Super Micro then issued disappointing unaudited financial results in November that added to investor worries, while the company also faced potential delisting from the Nasdaq.
Later in November, Super Micro’s stock got a boost when the company named BDO as its new auditor. By December, a three-month independent special committee had found “no evidence of misconduct” and Super Micro received an extension until Feb. 25 to file its report.
But the stock had already fallen so much that it was dropped from the Nasdaq 100 in December, just five months after joining the index.
Tuesday’s results represent a key test for Super Micro and an opportunity to prove to Wall Street that the company’s business remains solid and that its compliance issues are in the past.
Analysts are skeptical.
The average price target implies about 18% downside on the stock, according to FactSet data. Only 10 analysts currently cover the stock, down by more than half since September. Of the remaining analysts, seven have a hold or sell rating. Last year at this time, three-quarters of the analysts recommended buying the stock.
Wedbush Securities analyst Matt Bryson, who suggests holding the shares, highlighted “substantial uncertainties” heading into the earnings report. He said questions remain over the company’s delayed financials and whether it can meet sales expectations.
“Given our lack of certainty around SCMI’s listing status as well as near-term results, and with our more optimistic view around longer term sales opportunities offset by our concerns around increased competition, we believe it is appropriate we retain our neutral rating,” Bryson wrote.
— CNBC’s Kif Leswing contributed to this report.
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