Spain have too many elite ’keepers to take to the World Cup. Who will be No 1 and who misses out?

Spain scored three goals against Serbia on Friday in another inspiring win for Luis de la Fuente’s side, the 3-0 scoreline underlining why they will be among the top candidates to go all the way in next summer’s World Cup.

Mikel Oyarzabal was the star of the show, scoring twice. The Real Sociedad striker has registered 11 goals and six assists in his past 10 outings with the national team. Osasuna’s winger Victor Munoz, who made his international debut, topped off a perfect night in Villarreal with the third goal.

But after the match, the biggest talking point in Spain focused on the other end of the pitch. It has been this way all week, in fairness, given the unexpected change of heart De la Fuente has had over his selection.

The national manager called up four goalkeepers on his 26-man list — something he had never done before. Only three goalkeepers can be part of a matchday squad in an official game.

That choice, however, allowed De la Fuente to satisfy a popular demand around his selections: the inclusion of Barcelona’s Joan Garcia for the first time. Alongside him there were the three usual Spain goalkeepers: Athletic Club’s Unai Simon, Arsenal’s David Raya and Real Sociedad’s Alex Remiro.

For the game against Serbia in Villarreal, the national manager had to leave one out of the squad. He opted to omit Garcia, who missed the chance to make his debut. Simon played the full match.

After the game, De la Fuente faced further questions on his goalkeeping choices. “I don’t have any doubts because the four of them are a guarantee in goal,” he said.

“They support each other and behave like a team. We have to enjoy having such a talented group of ’keepers. Making changes in that role is different. It’s a special position; I don’t think you need to change a lot there.”

There is a reason why De la Fuente was hesitant to include Garcia in the team’s plans earlier. In this Spain setup, there is a focus on keeping dressing-room harmony. De la Fuente wants a certain type of character and a group of players where everyone understands their role and contributes to common goals.

Simon has not just been De la Fuente’s No 1 since he took the reins of the team in 2022; he was in that position even before that. In Spain’s youth setup, Simon played for De la Fuente at under-19 and under-21 level. Raya is established as backup and Remiro is the third choice, but both are regarded as key figures in the dressing room.

Especially 31-year-old Remiro, who is described by Spanish sources — speaking on the condition of anonymity to protect relationships — as a top-quality ’keeper who understands the team’s needs, and has become an excellent role model. He is especially close to the younger generation, providing mentoring and advice when needed. In such a young squad, this is a precious asset.

Here is where we go back to Garcia. The 24-year-old is as talented as any other young goalkeeper in the world, but it is that talent that frames him more as a candidate to take over the No 1 spot, rather than staying as a fringe player.

There was always a risk that, with Garcia replacing one of the usual choices, there would be a disruption in their hierarchy. But it reached a point where Garcia’s performances were simply too good to ignore.

From a shot-stopping perspective, we can take a look at the expected goals on target (xGOT) metric, which considers the quality of the on-target attempts a goalkeeper has faced, accounting for factors such as the placement in the goal and the angle from which the shot is taken.

Then we compare this to the goals actually conceded, forming the metric of goals prevented. The higher the number, the better the shot-stopping performance. As you can see in the graphic below, Garcia has prevented 10.4 goals with Barcelona this season.

Taking a deeper look at the goals-prevented rate, which adjusts for the volume of shots to see the degree to which a ’keeper concedes at a rate above or below expectation, he also stands out.

Garcia holds a 1.7 goals-prevented rate, which simply put means he would have been expected to concede 1.7 goals for every goal he actually conceded. It is the best return among all goalkeepers in the top-five European leagues, significantly above his Spain counterparts, who are performing at expectation (1.0).

Should we expect Garcia to take over then? Well, not really.

Barring an unexpected plot twist, Simon will be the No 1 at the World Cup. This is what those close to the Spain team believe. “He has given the coaching staff no reason to be dropped, as he has always delivered with the national team,” a source within the squad told The Athletic.

In a way, they are right. Simon has performed at an exceptional level at the past three major competitions he has played for Spain (Euro 2020, the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024).

“I did not use this last game to reaffirm Unai Simon’s position in the team,” said De la Fuente after the Serbia game. “It would be unfair not to rate what he’s given to us. His trajectory speaks for itself. Let’s all be fair, and not mould our opinion on trends or new debates.”

Maybe Garcia will have to settle for finally being involved, even if on the periphery, and maybe his inclusion is a gesture about who is destined to be the No 1 for the longer term.

But, before this summer’s World Cup, De la Fuente is unlikely to make changes to something that is already working well for him.

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