Shares rocket higher as oil prices fall, inflation unchanged
FTSE 100 Live: Shares rocket higher as oil prices fall, inflation unchanged Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock
After just over an hour of trading, the FTSE has lost some of its early head of steam but is still up over 1%.
Gains in Europe are also strong, with benchmarks in Frankfurt, Paris, Milan and Madrid all up around 1.3-1.5%.
In London, Asos is one of the big risers, up 15% on the back of its update earlier.
RS Group, the former Electrocomponents, is down 4% as full-year profits marginally ahead of analyst expectations were mostly ignored as investors focused on a steeper-than-expected drop in revenues.
Markets are higher this morning as optimism is growing around a potential resolution to the Middle East conflict, says market analyst Matt Britzman at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Washington has reportedly sent Tehran a rehashed 15-point proposal aimed at resolving tensions, while Israeli media indicate that the US is pushing for a one-month ceasefire to allow negotiations to take place.
But, as per the update below, comments coming out of Iran are not positive. On the plus side, Iran said “non-hostile” vessels could use the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
Oil prices have moved lower, which Britzman says offers some relief to equities that had been weighed down by worries over inflation and the knock-on impact for interest rates.
“It’s still a highly fluid situation, trying to call how the rest of the week plays out would be unwise, but there are now clearer signs that we are on a path toward de‑escalation.”
Energy prices are still sitting at elevated levels, “and it will likely take a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to drive any meaningful and sustained move lower from here”, he adds.
US futures have also edged higher this morning, with the three main indices all pointing to gains of around 0.9%.
Average mortgage rates have jumped sharply since the Middle East conflict intensified, with more than 1,700 products withdrawn from the market since 9 March, according to Moneyfacts.
The average two-year fixed rate has risen from 4.85% to 5.56%, with lenders pricing in several Bank of England base rate increases.
Analyst Caitlyn Eastell warned that borrowers rolling off low five-year fixed deals face monthly repayments rising by more than £380 on a typical £250,000 loan, while those on tracker mortgages could see costs jump by around £430 a year from even a single 0.25% rate rise.
Oil prices are continuing to fall, with de-escalation in the Middle East key to the market mood this morning.
Brent crude has dropped to $98.2 a barrel.
“Hopes are rising that there could be a month-long ceasefire while a long-term peace plan is negotiated between the US and Iran. This is boosting market sentiment, but the situation remains fluid,” says market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB.
An Iranian spokesperson has dashed hopes that peace talks were taking place and said that the US is “negotiating with itself”.
A spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a video message: “There will be no news of your investments in the region, nor will you see the previous prices of energy and oil, until you understand: stability in the region is guaranteed by the powerful hand of our armed forces.”
A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry dismissed US claim of seeking talks: “Iran is under constant bombardment and missiles by the US and Israel. So their claim of diplomacy and mediation is not credible. Because they have started this war and they are continuing to attack Iran. So can anyone possibly believe that their claim [of] mediation is credible?” he said.
Brooks said more statements and denials should be expected, “as negotiating a long-term peace with the Iranian regime is a complex task.
“Thus, although the war is in a different stage compared to last week, this is still a news driven market, and traders are cautious until we get concrete plans of what the next steps to peace look like, and what happens as Israel continues to strike Iran.”
The FTSE 100 has rocketed higher at the open, soaring 154 points to 10,048.
Miners, financials, housebuilders and airlines are driving the rebound, with Fresnillo, Anglo American and Endeavour all up around 3.5%.
Barclays, Rolls-Royce, Melrose Industries, Barratt Redrow, Antofagasta and IAG are all up over 2.5%.
Guinness owner Diageo is selling Royal Challengers Bengaluru, one of the most popular cricket franchises in the Indian Premier League, for around £1.3 billion – nearly 16 times what was paid for it less than two decades ago.
United Spirits Limited (USL), the FTSE 100 drinks giant’s Indian subsidiary, has agreed to sell its 100% stake in the franchise, which was originally bought for $111.6 million in 2008 by liquor tycoon Vijay Mallya, with Diageo taking control of United Spirits and in 2012-13, with Mallya eventually exiting the board around 2016 amid legal and financial troubles.
The sale comes after the team won its first IPL title in 2025, in the tournament’s 18th edition.
The deal concludes a strategic review launched by USL in November 2025, with Diageo describing the franchise as non-core to its drinks business.
ASOS has reported a near-50% jump in underlying profits for the first half of its financial year, as the online fashion retailer’s turnaround continues to gain momentum.
The improvement was driven by a higher gross margin, which rose to 48.5%, alongside lower return rates and tighter cost control. The full-year margin target is 48-50%.
Sales, however, remain under pressure, with the total value of goods sold falling 9% year on year, though the rate of decline improved from the 12% in the past full year.
Chief executive José Antonio Ramos Calamonte said: “We are seeing improvements in new customer growth and strong performance in our womenswear business, both of which are encouraging lead indicators for sales growth.”
On the February inflation data, collected before the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said the largest upwards driver was the price of clothing, which rose this time but fell a year ago.
“This was offset by falls in petrol costs, with prices collected before the start of the conflict in the Middle East and subsequent rise in crude oil prices.
“A fall in the cost of alcoholic drinks due to promotional activity, compared with a rise last year, was also a downward driver, while little change in food prices, again compared with a small rise this time last year, added further downward pressure.”
But the inflation outlook for the UK has “completely changed” following the outbreak of the Gulf conflict, says economist Nicolas Crittenden at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
“We expect inflation to rise beyond this latest figure and remain well above target at least for the rest of this year, largely due to elevated energy prices stemming from the conflict.
“The current crisis is different compared to the last energy price shock in 2022. The labour market is weaker than it was four years ago and real interest rates remain positive.
“Inflation expectations will rise, but workers’ ability to bargain for higher wages is likely to be diminished by the overall lack of demand for employment.
“This should allow the Bank of England to look through the shock for now while avoiding a wage-price spiral.
“As it stands, a rate raise at the next meeting in April should be off the table, despite the notable signalling towards a response last week. Clear communication on future policy, and setting clear conditions for possible rate hikes, should be the priority for the Bank now.”
The FTSE 100 has been called higher on Wednesday, as oil prices dropped and UK inflation remained unchanged last month.
On the futures market, London’s blue-chip index is pointing around 55 points higher, after yesterday adding 71 points to close at just over 9,965.
Fresh data this morning showed the UK consumer prices index rose 3.0% in the year to February, unchanged from January as various price movements offset each other. The data has become almost meaningless since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, which has sent energy prices soaring.
Overnight, US stocks decline, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which slid 0.8%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones fell 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.
Asian stocks are all in green again this morning, led by Japan’s Nikkei and India’s Sensex, both up over 2%.
Brent crude oil futures are down 4.75% this morning at $99.6 a barrel, with US WTI down 3.8% at $88.8.
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