Putin’s AI doctrine seeks semi-automated military as Moscow could look to China for help, expert says

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Russia increasingly looks toward artificial intelligence (AI) to address deficiencies in its battlefield capabilities and capacities that the invasion of Ukraine has exposed, according to experts. 

“Russian futurists, Russian technologists, Russian developers are envisioning this slow evolution away from larger human involvement to where humans are going to be involved as little as possible,” Samuel Bendett, adjunct senior fellow in the Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told Fox News Digital. 

“Some of those statements were made prior to Russia’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s conduct in this war, which is very much manpower intensive… but this is something that the Russian military is keeping sort of on the horizon,” he said. 

Bendett in his paper for CNAS argued that Russia’s keenness to adopt AI could lead the country to take greater risks as it seeks to catch up with the West. He relied on public statements, announcements and analysis of Russian-language media to develop his paper, which looks at major developments in robotics and AI spaces and as Russia seeks an “intellectualized” military that makes semiautomated decisions. 

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“Such sources offer a glimpse into Russian deliberations and debates on the role and utility of AI on the modern battlefield and help analysts understand what the Russians emphasize in terms of AI research and development,” Bendett wrote. 

The greatest concern that Western officials may have regarding Russia’s intended use for AI is the integration of AI systems with its nuclear command, a goal that Bendett argues is on top of Russia’s list. 

Military victory forces

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech during the Victory Day military parade, celebrating victory over Nazi Germany, at Red Square in Moscow on May 9, 2023. (Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)

While the main, immediate goal for Russia is to use AI for data collection, analysis and “situational awareness,” the military forces ultimately seek to integrate AI in decision-making, including when and how to deploy nuclear weapons. 

“Repeated statements by officials within the Ministry of Defense and the government point to AI as a data analysis and decision-making tool,” Bendett said. “Therefore, nuclear forces are going to be part of that larger effort to integrate some of these more advanced technologies alongside analysis and understanding done by human operators.”

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In his paper, Bendett expands on this point, saying that AI would allegedly help Russian officials “in the event the political leadership is incapacitated and no longer can make crucial decisions.” The system, called Perimeter, is an automatic nuclear weapons control system from the Cold War that played into the nation’s doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), but the system remains functional today, which Bendett notes as an indication of where Russia’s thinking lays. 

“The system’s continued existence today implies the preference for semiautomatic, instead of fully automated, systems to meet the challenges of enormous stress, the pressure to understand the unfolding scenario in real time, and the possible lack of relevant information, along with emotions that affect human decision makers under stress,” Bendett writes. 

Russia Victory Day

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech to mark the 79th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany in World War II in Moscow. (Tian Bing/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images)

“By removing the pressure for Russian leaders to decide whether to launch a nuclear attack on a short timeline under pressure, Perimeter is meant to reduce the risk of miscalculation on both sides and to avoid wrong decisions with enormous consequences,” he added. 

One of the primary concerns he raises is that while Russia’s views on AI align with those of other major powers, it may lack the ability to adopt those systems, especially in light of Western sanctions and export controls. 

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In his paper, Bendett listed a number of factors that could otherwise impede Russia’ development and adoption of AI technology, namely the exodus of tech personnel at the start of the Ukraine invasion, lack of access to parts and data, and the impacted economy as major stumbling blocks Russia faces in its AI ambitions. 

Bendett argued that Russia’s desperation to keep up with the West could drive officials to lean on China, Moscow’s increasingly close ally, to fill the gaps in development. 

China Russia diplomacy

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and China’s President Xi Jinping hold an informal meeting in Beijing on May 16, 2024. (Mikhail Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images)

“One of the things we have discovered with the imposition of sanctions, starting in March of 2022, is that Russia can evade many of the sanctions and can actually acquire what it needs through willing partners or through partners who are unaware of certain transactions,” Bendett explained during an interview with Fox News Digital. 

“This, of course, involves microelectronics, involves certain hardware and software solutions: As long as Russia maintains open trade and relationships with countries like China and India and a number of other states around the world, it is probably going to have access to certain technologies, certain concepts which are necessary for its high-tech development and in particular for artificial intelligence development,” he argued.

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Rebekah Koffler, a strategic military intelligence analyst and the author of “Putin’s Playbook,” told Fox News Digital that AI remains one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “top priorities,” with annual reports on progress in development and implementation. 

“Putin once stated that the nation that controls AI will control the world,” Koffler said. “His concern is that if the West leads in AI, Western values and concepts will be embedded in it and not Russia’s values.” 

“Putin believes that Russia will lose sovereignty if it loses competition in AI,” she added. “Putin once compared AI with nuclear weapons, and he estimates that AI will follow the trajectory of nuclear weapons development – once people realize what enormous danger AI represents if it is not managed properly, there will be attempts to control it.”

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Koffler claimed that Putin has indirectly acknowledged the U.S. as the frontrunner on AI development, citing Elon Musk’s Neuralink as proof that the billionaire will “do what he thinks must be done” to advance technology. 

Bendett and Koffler both lamented the difficulty in fully assessing Russia’s progress with AI due to the lack of “trustworthy intelligence” and the overreliance on statements from the Russian government, which Koffler warned are often “exaggerations.” 

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長和(0001)曾跌最多6.68%,是2022年9月26日後最大跌幅,當日跌幅為7.42%。低見46.1元,是3月5日44.4元後最低。半日收報47.15元,跌4.55%。成交金額增235.11%,至15.47億元,是3月7日後最多,當日達22.71億元。 恒指今早高開190點,高位升633點,低位跌8點,高低波幅641點。上升股份比例為37.6%,下跌為20.21%,無升跌為42.17%。 恒指半日升598點或2.55%,報24060點,大市成交金額1589億元;國指升272點或3.16%,報8913點。恒生科技指數收報5905點,升2.75%。 藍籌股成交金額773.62億元,佔大市成交48.68%;科指成份股成交金額475.01億元,佔大市成交29.89%;國指成份股成交金額673.4億元,佔大市成交42.37%。 24隻雙櫃台股,總成交0.78億元人民幣,相當於約0.84億港元,佔大市成交的0.05%。 窩輪及牛熊證成交金額減少4.22%,至169.66億元,佔大市成交10.67%。牛熊證成交金額89.67億元,增加4.07%;窩輪成交金額79.98億元,減少12.07%。 藍籌71隻升,12隻下跌,0隻無升跌。藥明生物(2269)升14.38%,收報26.65元,是升幅最大的藍籌,長和(0001)跌4.55%,收報47.15元,是跌幅最大的藍籌, 恒生科技指數成份股27隻升,3隻下跌。升幅最大的是美團(3690)收報174.2元,升5.9%;跌幅最大的是蔚來(9866)收報36.55元,跌6.64%。 恒指曾跌穿10天線(23683.27點)。科指曾跌穿10天線(5828.72點)、20天線(5767.42點)。 北水南下合計淨流入38.57億元,較上日減少29.45%,連續第3日流入,累計流入355.34億元,對上一次連續3日淨流入是3月7日。北水本月累計流入966.73億元,按月減少36.72%,連續第21個月流入。北水交易成交額(包括買入及賣出交易)741.64億元,較上日減29.15%,佔香港市場成交額由上日的22.38%增至23.32%。 三大指數表現 恒指曾升最多2.7%,是3月6日後最大升幅,當日升幅為3.46%。高見24095.9點,是3月10日24292.8點後最高。 科指曾升最多2.87%,是3月6日後最大升幅,當日升幅為5.77%。高見5912.83點,是3月12日6075.31點後最高。 國指曾升最多3.3%,是3月6日後最大升幅,當日升幅為3.78%。高見8925.88點,是3月10日8934.24點後最高。 個股表現 花旗:呼和浩特育兒補貼政策超預期。中國飛鶴(6186)收報6.8元,升14.67%。 蒙牛乳業(2319)收報19.62元,升8.04%。 小米(1810)擬今年在日本開設5至10家「小米之家」。收報54元,升2.18%。 俄鋁(0486)全年多賺1.8倍 曾升逾5%。收報5.13元,無升跌。 中國飛機租賃(1848)出售6架連租約飛機 曾升逾4%。收報3.77元,升3.57%。 友邦(1299)全年新業務價值增18% 遜預期 跌逾4% 近5個月最大跌幅。收報61.5元,跌2.07%。 長和(0001)售港口,港澳辦轉載質疑文章,據報交易未知會中央,賣港口存暗湧。收報47.15元,跌4.55%。 多間公司最快今日布業績,績前表現如下,理想(2015)收報111.5元,升0.81%。 宏橋(1378)收報14.98元,升1.35%。 中信資源(1205)收報0.355元,升2.9%。 法拉帝(9638)收報22.4元,跌3.03%。 華潤建材科技(1313)收報1.74元,升3.57%。 金利來集團(0533)收報1.45元,跌0.68%。 和記電訊香港(0215)收報0.99元,無升跌。 華大酒店(0201)收報0.075元,跌1.32%。 彩星集團(0635)收報0.52元,無升跌。 中石化煉化工程(2386)收報6.07元,升0.66%。 港華智慧能源(1083)收報3.29元,無升跌。 東方海外(0316)去年多賺近九成達25.77億美元,每股末期息大增8倍至1.32美元。收報113.5元,升0.62%。 九倉(0004)香港碼頭吞吐量跌6%,吳天海:國際船運重組,香港成輸家。九倉吳天海:目前間接投資內地住宅為主,寫字樓供應仍然過剩。收報18.74元,跌3.4%。 微博(9898)去年第四季盈利倒退近九成。收報83.55元,跌0.65%。 太地(1972):料香港寫字樓市況明後年才改善 ,零售商場市道已回穩。收報17.08元,升4.66%。 世茂(0813)境外債重組計劃獲高院批准。收報1.09元,升6.86%。 傳百威亞太(1876)年裁員數千人,母企百威英博否認。收報8.93元,升3.36%。 周大福(1929):鄭炳熙4月1日起卸任首席財務官,續任執董。收報9.2元,升2.22%。 Ares據報擬折扣價從銀行收購部分新世界(0017)債務。收報5.37元,升2.48%。 平保增持農行(1288)。創上市新高,見5.05元,收報4.98元,升1.63%。 越秀交通基建(1052)全年少賺14%,派末期息0.13元。收報3.74元,無升跌。 破頂股表現 破頂股包括,趣致集團(0917)創上市新高,見106.7元,收報106元,升7.61%;眾淼控股(1471)創上市新高,見15元,收報14.1元,升6.33%;津上機床中國(1651)創上市新高,見29.1元,收報28.3元,升20.94%;藥明合聯(2268)創上市新高,見39.3元,收報39.25元,升11.98%;聯邦制藥(3933)創上市新高,見15.98元,收報15.78元,升5.06%;細葉榕科技(8107)創上市新高,見0.83元,收報0.76元,跌1.3%;九方智投控股(9636)創上市新高,見44.75元,收報43.2元,升2.86%;泡泡瑪特(9992)創上市新高,見125元,收報123.3元,升3.7%;中國移動-R(80941)創上市新高,見78元,收報78元,升1.1%;德翔海運(2510)創上市新高,見5.72元,收報5.5元,升5.77%;越疆科技(2432)創上市新高,見71.4元,收報58.5元,跌6.02%;腦動極光(6681)創上市新高,見7元,收報6.87元,升6.18%;赤峰黃金(6693)創上市新高,見14.32元,收報14.08元,升2.62%;SPDR金(2840)創上市新高,見2145元,收報2144元,升2%;價值黃金(3081)創上市新高,見70.36元,收報70.28元,升1.83%;PP美國庫A-U(9078)創上市新高,見578.5元,收報578.5元,升0.13%;價值黃金-U(9081)創上市新高,見9.035元,收報9.035元,升1.75%;A博時美元-U(9196)創上市新高,見1090.35元,收報1090.35元,升0.08%;SPDR金-R(83046)創上市新高,見1996元,收報1996元,升1.97%;價值黃金-R(83130)創上市新高,見65.52元,收報65.5元,升1.83%;恒生人幣金ETF(84402)創上市新高,見43.5元,收報43.5元,升2.11%;FL二南方黃金(7299)創上市新高,見14.32元,收報14.31元,升3.92%。 破頂指數成份股包括,農行(1288)創上市新高,見5.05元,收報4.98元,升1.63%;招商銀行(3968)創52周高,見50.7元,收報50.45元,升4.02%;中行(3988)創52周高,見4.62元,收報4.59元,升1.55%;建行(0939)創52周高,見6.89元,收報6.84元,升2.24%;中移動(0941)創52周高,見83.8元,收報83.6元,升1.09%;藥明生物(2269)創52周高,見26.75元,收報26.65元,升14.38%;交行(3328)創52周高,見6.91元,收報6.86元,升1.33%。 破底股方面 10隻股份創上市新低,其中十隻包括,德泰新能源集團(0559)低見0.126元,收報0.15元,升2.04%;酷派集團(2369)低見0.028元,收報0.03元,無升跌;高視醫療(2407)低見5.82元,收報5.86元,跌0.51%;希瑪醫療(3309)低見1.63元,收報1.67元,跌0.6%;宇華教育(6169)低見0.35元,收報0.38元,升5.56%;艾美疫苗(6660)低見3.56元,收報3.66元,升0.55%;中食民安(8283)低見0.37元,收報0.42元,跌3.45%;元續科技(8637)低見0.81元,收報0.83元,跌2.35%;華昊中天醫藥(2563)低見11.16元,收報11.16元,跌2.45%;草姬集團(2593)低見1.78元,收報1.79元,跌1.65%。 26隻股份創52周低,其中十隻包括,莎莎國際(0178)低見0.62元,收報0.62元,無升跌;ASMPT(0522)低見54.85元,收報56.45元,升0.89%;亞倫國際(0684)低見0.58元,收報0.58元,跌1.69%;長盈集團(控股)(0689)低見0.017元,收報0.017元,跌10.53%;雅天妮集團(0789)低見0.3元,收報0.315元,無升跌;華富建業金融(0952)低見0.177元,收報0.18元,跌2.7%;亞太衛星(1045)低見1.81元,收報1.88元,跌15.7%;香港科技探索(1137)低見1.18元,收報1.19元,跌1.65%;中國創新投資(1217)低見0.01元,收報0.01元,無升跌;新特能源(1799)低見5.74元,收報5.87元,跌1.18%。 異動股

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Trump threatens 200% tariff on alcohol from EU

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