Over the past several quarters, one word has characterized the market’s reaction to Meta Platforms’ NASDAQ: META earnings reports: volatility.

For four quarters in a row, Meta has gone back and forth between large post-earnings gains and falls.

In Q2 2025, shares rose 11.3% after earnings, the stock’s largest post-earnings up move since early 2024. Q3 2025 saw the exact opposite reaction, with shares subsequently falling 11.3%. Q4 2025 brought another big gain: shares climbed 10.4% as the company guided for its fastest revenue growth in years.

Despite exceeding its revenue target during Q1 2026, shares plummeted 8.6% in reaction to the report, released on April 29.

This volatility largely reflects investors’ skittishness when it comes to evaluating Meta’s artificial intelligence (AI) strategy. This skittishness also extends to Wall Street analysts, with price targets moving up and down in tow with Meta’s releases.

Analysts Mirror Meta’s Price Action, But Continually Point to Upside

In Q2 2025, Meta posted a very significant after-earnings gain, and analysts followed suit, substantially raising their price targets. In the days following the release, analysts boosted their price targets by an average of 15%, even greater than the stock’s 11.3% move. At that time, the average of updated targets was approximately $866, implying 12% upside.

In Q3 2025, analysts who updated their price targets after the report cut their previous targets by about 5%. The average of those updated price targets was about $857, implying roughly 37% upside from early-November prices.

Then, after Q4 2025, all but one analyst tracked by MarketBeat increased their price target following Meta’s 10.4% gain. The average of those updated targets moved up to around $870, implying over 23% upside at the time.

Overall, these moves show that markets and analysts have shifted their expectations for Meta in a similar trajectory. However, analysts have been consistently bullish on Meta stock, projecting considerable upside for the shares. This indicates a level of analyst conviction that has yet to translate into sustained share price success.

As investors look to Q1 2026, that trend is expected to continue.

Meta Targets Fall After Q1, But Optimism Remains

Meta dropped precipitously after its latest earnings report, even as the company posted year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth of 33%. This was handily above the 30% YOY growth implied by the midpoint of its guidance and allowed Meta to achieve its fastest growth rate since Q3 2021, nearly hitting the 35% growth the firm saw that quarter.

The culprit for the stock’s fall seems to have been the 8% increase Meta issued for its 2026 capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance (to a range of $125 billion to $145 billion). Meta also didn’t shut the door to further CapEx increases in 2027.

Since the report, MarketBeat has tracked approximately 10 analysts who have lowered their price targets on Meta. However, moves were not all to the downside, with Barclays and Wells Fargo & Company issuing moderate increases.

Nonetheless, in aggregate, analysts issuing updates for which MarketBeat had previous price target data fell meaningfully, by around 5%.

When considering all updated price targets, the average settled near $815, moderately lower than the MarketBeat consensus target of around $840.

Still, when it comes to upside potential, the story is the same; analysts continue to eye strong gains in Meta stock.

The $815 target implies more than 35% upside in shares. Furthermore, all updated targets were above Meta’s current trading range in the low $600s.

When it comes to ratings, nearly all analysts issuing updates put a Buy or Overweight rating on the stock. Among Meta’s nine Hold or equivalent ratings, only one comes after its latest report, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. standing alone.

Notably, Meta’s target range continues to be wide. JPMorgan’s $725 target was the lowest among updates, while Rosenblatt Securities’ $1,015 target was the highest. The range of upside implied by these targets sits between over 15% and over 60%. It is worth pointing out that Rosenblatt’s outlook is unusually bullish, with the firm holding the only updated target above $1,000.

Investors Await Muse Spark’s Impact as Meta’s Forward P/E Falls Below 20x

Despite seeing volatile post-earnings price action, analyst data provides reason for continued optimism in Meta’s outlook. This is particularly true, considering that the company only recently released its Muse Spark model. AI model evaluation platforms have rated Muse Spark drastically higher than Meta’s past LLama models, although still considerably below “frontier” models.

With Muse Spark, Meta is now in a much better position to release new AI tools and products that are competitive. Meta has yet to provide head-turning details around these potential products, but the company also tends to be tight-lipped until it’s not. Considering this, it’s reasonable to think Meta has needle-moving announcements on the way, but it will likely take time before they come to light.

Amid this, Meta trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio around 20x, meaningfully lower than its 23x average over the past three years. Overall, Meta’s outlook remains solid long-term, despite near-term disruptions.

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