Eddie Howe was already mindful of the mental task following Newcastle United’s Champions League round-of-16 first-leg 1-1 draw with Barcelona. Many Newcastle insiders believe they can shock the Spanish champions at Camp Nou and reach the quarter-finals for the first time.

But Newcastle’s trip to Spain comes on Wednesday. First, they face Chelsea on Saturday — at Stamford Bridge, where they have triumphed once in the top flight since the Premier League’s inception.

“Naturally, (players) have half an eye on next week,” Howe told reporters on Tuesday. “But it’s my job to make sure the focus is firmly on Chelsea first.”

With Newcastle 12th in the Premier League, some argue Howe should concentrate on the Champions League.

The theory posited is that their top-flight campaign is all but finished and that, at best, Newcastle may secure UEFA Conference League qualification. With the third-level European competition viewed unfavourably by many — understandably, given Newcastle have played in UEFA’s premier tournament in two of the last three seasons — the argument is that going all in for the Champions League is better from a financial and prestige perspective.

But Howe cannot — and will not — view it that way. His team selection against Chelsea will be intriguing, with some rotation expected, though he will send out an XI he believes can win.

Despite the enticing prospect of reaching the last eight, Howe surely recognises the likelihood is that Barcelona will triumph. At Camp Nou this season, Barcelona have been formidable, winning 16 of 17 Champions League and La Liga matches, drawing the other, scoring 54 goals and conceding 11.

Howe cannot, therefore, wholly prioritise that fixture above the Premier League, given there are only nine top-flight fixtures remaining and Newcastle are running out of time and points available to lift themselves into European contention. Having already suffered a dire defeat at the Stadium of Light in December, a win is also required when Sunderland visit St James’ Park on March 22.

Wor Flags may have thrown forward to May’s Champions League final with their pre-match display on Tuesday — “Geordie boys are taking over, Budapest awaits for me” — but even optimistic fans may struggle to predict Newcastle lifting the trophy. Atletico Madrid probably await in the quarter-finals, with Arsenal likely last-four opponents, while on the other side, one of Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain or Bayern Munich would be expected to reach the showpiece.

The prospect of Newcastle retaining their Champions League place by winning the competition is remote. Focusing upon Barcelona at the expense of league fixtures either side cannot be deemed a strategy; it would represent a short-term punt at history (albeit one which would bring significant financial benefit, adding another eight-figure sum to Newcastle’s income).

Despite Newcastle languishing in mid-table mediocrity in the Premier League — they were last in the top six in mid-January — their chances of finishing in the top five are not entirely extinguished.

Newcastle (39 points) have not occupied any top-five position this season, yet are just nine points behind fifth-placed Chelsea with nine games remaining (five sides are expected to qualify for the Champions League through the Premier League), a gap they can reduce to six on Saturday. Sixth-placed Liverpool are level with Chelsea (48 points), while there are another five teams between Newcastle and fifth. Although the gap is considerable, it is not insurmountable.

When finishing fifth last season, Newcastle received £160.2million ($214.8m) in central prize money.

Multiple factors affect those figures, but each position is worth an additional £2.7m just in merit payments. Newcastle banked £42.4m in merit payments last season, while Crystal Palace, in 12th, received £23.8m. That £18.6m difference has a considerable effect in a PSR (the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules) world, which is soon-to-be replaced by SCR (squad-cost ratio).

Even if Champions League qualification feels far-fetched, securing a place in either the Europa League or Conference League remains eminently possible — and important financially.

Some fans have suggested Newcastle may benefit from a season outside of UEFA competition, as it would give the team a better chance of getting back into the Champions League for 2027-28. From a purely footballing perspective, that argument has merit.

Yet with annual football revenue tied to expenditure for SCR, any additional income is welcomed.

Even if the overall maximum prize money for the Conference League of €22m (£19m; $25.5m) is dwarfed by the €157m a team could theoretically make from the Champions League — while Tottenham received €41m after winning the Europa League last season — there are economic benefits beyond prize money.

Newcastle would have up to eight additional home matches, depending on the competition and their progress, which significantly boosts matchday revenue, regardless of whether ticket prices would be lower than the Champions League, and some games may not be sellouts. The value of some commercial deals would drop, but they are likely to be more lucrative with at least some European football.

The downside to being in UEFA tournaments is that their financial rules are even more restrictive, with expenditure limited to 70 per cent of revenue rather than the Premier League’s 85 per cent.

Yet some senior figures would rather finish as high as possible and bank the revenue gains than have no European football.

The potential European qualification permutations are too convoluted to explain at length, but here is the abridged version.

Liverpool, in sixth, are on course for the Europa League and Brentford, in seventh, the Conference League (having gained the Carabao Cup winner’s spot).

Should Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal or Chelsea win the FA Cup and qualify for Europe through the Premier League, another spot in Europe’s second-tier competition would become available. Eighth, currently Everton, would then be in the Conference League.

There are further eventualities, such as Liverpool or Chelsea winning the Champions League, or Aston Villa lifting the Europa League, while finishing below fifth, meaning six/seven English teams qualify for UEFA’s premier tournament. The Europa League spot (or spots) could go to eighth and/or ninth, and the Conference League to ninth or 10th.

Newcastle are just one point behind ninth-placed Bournemouth, and four adrift of Everton in eighth. If the European positions only extend to seventh, Newcastle are just five points behind Brentford.

Howe after the Barcelona game (Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)

Even so, they have only won successive league games twice this season (including a run of three), while they have lost three of their last four top-flight home matches.

Although Newcastle’s run-in appears relatively kind, five of their opponents are above them.

Newcastle’s record against the present top 11 is lamentable, with only four league wins from 17 matches. Alongside their dire results at Stamford Bridge, Newcastle have only ever won once in the league at the Emirates, have triumphed just once in 10 visits to Selhurst Park, while they have claimed three victories in their last 17 top-flight away games and Howe has yet to beat Bournemouth in the Premier League.

The pressure on the Tyne-Wear derby is also significant, with Sunderland again profiting from Howe’s team facing a Champions League away fixture four days beforehand.

If that paints a gloomy outlook, Newcastle do have good recent records at Nottingham Forest and Fulham. Chelsea also lost at PSG on Wednesday and their second leg is on Tuesday, whereas Newcastle’s schedule is Tuesday-Saturday-Wednesday.

What’s more, Newcastle will have a free weekend for the first time since August immediately following the international break. Alongside providing much-needed rest, this will afford Howe greater time on the training pitch with his players. Elimination from the Champions League, though undesirable, may actually have a positive knock-on effect, providing free midweeks for the remainder of the season.

A bottom-half finish would be well below expectations. In December, Ross Wilson, Newcastle’s sporting director, declared European qualification a realistic goal and, given silverware is probably beyond Howe’s side, now feels like a minimum objective.

Reaching the Champions League last eight would be a major achievement. But with so much to be gained from a higher Premier League finish, Howe cannot simply fixate upon downing Barcelona when the odds are against Newcastle.