Netflix Stock Has Gained in the Fourth Quarter in 17 of the Last 24 Years
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has a good fourth-quarter record. Going back to 2002, the shares ended the final three months of the year up in 17 of 24 years. This count goes from the last closing price in September to the last close in December, adjusted for stock splits.
And in a typical year, the rise was big. The median fourth-quarter return across these 24 years was around 12%.
Missed AI’s “Act 1”? Act 2 Could Be 14x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn’t buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of “Act 1″—the R&D phase. “Act 2” is the global rollout. Continue »
The latest fourth quarter, though, went the other way. Netflix shares began it near $120 and finished it under $94, a loss of about 22%.
This year’s quarter starts at a far lower point. At roughly $72 as of this writing, the stock is up about 4% since September ended but still trades 42% under its 52-week high of $124.86.
The company posts its third-quarter results on Tuesday, Oct. 20.
A record like that can make the calendar look like it’s on Netflix’s side. But I don’t think the calendar deserves much of the credit. In most of those years, the October report seemed to set the quarter’s direction.
Image source: Getty Images.
Big October moves usually hold
Netflix releases its third-quarter results a few weeks into the fourth quarter, and the growth stock‘s reaction the next trading day has been a surprisingly good guide to how the quarter ends. Since 2004, Netflix has seen 14 one-day moves of 10% or more just after its October report. In 13 of those years, the shares closed the fourth quarter in the same direction.
The past four years show how it works. After the October reports in 2022, 2023, and 2024, the stock jumped 13%, 16%, and 11% the next day — and then finished those fourth quarters up around 25%, 29%, and 26%.
Last year it worked in reverse. Shares dropped 10% the day after the October 2025 report, when an expense linked to a dispute with Brazilian tax authorities brought Netflix’s third-quarter operating margin down to 28%, under the 31.5% management had forecast. The stock kept slipping into December, when Netflix agreed to buy Warner Bros. (a deal canceled in February). And the quarter ended with that 22% loss.
The only exception was 2012, when a 12% fall after the October report gave way to a 70% gain for the full quarter.
Smaller reactions have said far less. In the eight years the stock moved less than 10% after its October report, the fourth quarter went the other way six times.
Growth has slowed all year
What’s changed since last October is the growth picture. A year ago, the streaming service headed into its fourth quarter with revenue growth picking up. Third-quarter 2025 revenue climbed 17% year over year, and management forecast 17% growth in the fourth quarter, too.
Shares dropped anyway.
This year, the trend goes the other way. Showing how steady the slowdown has been, Netflix’s revenue rose 18% year over year in the last quarter of 2025. Growth has cooled every quarter since, dropping to 16% in the first three months of 2026 and 13% from April to June. And management’s forecast calls for 12% in the third quarter.
Sure, investors already know about the slowdown, and the stock price arguably reflects much of it. Shares cost around 19 times the earnings analysts expect for 2027 — arguably a fair price for a business whose revenue is still growing at a double-digit rate.
What could swing this quarter?
I think the fourth-quarter forecast will probably count more on Oct. 20 than the third-quarter results themselves. In July, management narrowed its full-year revenue outlook to a range of $51.0 billion to $51.4 billion. Along with its third-quarter forecast, that range allows for fourth-quarter revenue growth anywhere from around 11% to 14%.
A forecast near the top of that range would mean growth speeding up from the third quarter’s rate for the first time since late 2025. News like that might cause one of those double-digit moves higher.
True, a forecast near the bottom may be smaller news than last year’s margin miss. But it’d be yet another step down in growth. Shares have already dropped around 23% in 2026 as growth has slowed.
Seventeen gains in 24 years is a good record. But I wouldn’t bank on it this year. I’d put much more weight on what Netflix says about fourth-quarter growth on Oct. 20.
Should you buy stock in Netflix right now?
Before you buy stock in Netflix, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Netflix wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $380,363!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,315,732!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 919% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Memory chip specialist Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) has seen its shares drop about 24% from their all-time high of 1,255. That might seem like a lot, and you might find yourself feeling sorry for its shareholders, but don’t — because Micron’s shares are actually up 445% over the past year — more than quintupling their
Two hundred dollars a month doesn’t sound like much when your goal is to build a $1 million net worth. But that’s why long-term investing in stocks is so exciting. It’s a very achievable goal if you understand the math behind it. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) is a great tool to use
Photo by BeInCrypto Michael Burry, who bet against the 2008 housing bubble, says the next bear market may last a long time. The Michael Burry bear market warning rests on a century of inflation-adjusted S&P 500 data. On the surface, stocks look calm. The S&P 500 closed at a record on October 6. Yet Burry
M.P. Evans Group recently received the Best Investor Communications award at the 2026 AIM Awards, after reporting interim revenue growth of 9%, a 25% rise in pre-tax profit and a higher dividend, supported by firm palm oil pricing. The award highlights how clear communication around commodity volatility, export regulation uncertainty and sustainability issues has become
Stubborn US inflation has kept interest rate risks in focus, which puts a premium on businesses that can grow through higher costs rather than just endure them. Australian fast growers where insiders own meaningful stakes offer exactly that angle, because management feels the impact of every swing alongside you. This article highlights three such stocks
Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) has been the top-performing S&P 500 stock for most of 2026, until it was recently surpassed by the surging pharmaceutical company Moderna. Still, Sandisk is holding onto second place by a wide margin, and it has risen nearly 500% this year; not a bad one-year gain! However, what’s in the past is
The market value of the service’s holdings fell 182 trillion won ($136 billion) in three and a half months, with much of the investment concentrated in chipmakers. National Pension Service Chairman Kim Sung-joo speaks at a parliamentary audit held at the National Assembly in western Seoul on Oct. 14.YONHAP The National Pension Service’s (NPS) earlier
Super Group (SGHC) has delivered a very strong 3 year run, which puts fresh focus on whether the current share price still lines up with what its earnings can support. With the stock closing at US$11.09 most recently, the key issue is how much of the business’s profit power is already embedded in that figure.
Recent reports highlight that Chewy holds an average brokerage recommendation between Strong Buy and Buy. In contrast, a lower Zacks Rank reflects more cautious earnings expectations based on negative estimate revisions. The contrast between upbeat brokerage ratings and weaker earnings estimate trends points to growing pressure on Chewy’s underlying profit outlook and business execution, rather
Kraken Robotics (OTC: KRKNF) is positioning itself as a leading provider of technologies supporting crewless underwater vehicles, subsea monitoring, and other maritime applications. The company is a leader in battery technologies for underwater drones and seabed mapping, and has credible offerings in other categories that could be crucial for maritime defense, offshore energy projects, and
United Company RUSAL International has seen its share price under pressure in recent years, which puts the focus squarely on whether the current Hong Kong listing price around HK$2.79 is aligned with what its earnings can support. For anyone looking at the aluminium producer today, the key issue is how that earnings profile stacks up
Semiconductor giants Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) and Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU)’s shares have ended the week as part of yet another historic bloodbath for the semiconductor sector. Both have lost roughly 12% over the past five days amidst a painful rout for the semiconductor industry that saw the close 9.9% lower during the same day. Cramer,
Micron (NASDAQ: MU) has been on an extraordinary run for the past year. The memory chipmaker has benefited from surging demand amid the AI revolution, combined with limited competition. Micron’s stock has skyrocketed nearly 220% in 2026, even after a recent pullback. The company, along with a handful of others, owns the vast majority of
International Business Machines has seen its share price move around in recent months, yet the key issue for anyone looking at IBM today is whether the current US$232.14 level is supported by the cash the business can generate over time. Over the past 5 years, International Business Machines has delivered a total return of 130.1%,
Plug Power reaffirmed that it remains on track with its 2026 revenue guidance, supported by margin improvement efforts, reduced net cash usage, and progress on large electrolyzer agreements and hydrogen projects that underpin its role in the global hydrogen economy. Analysts have recently raised earnings estimates for Plug Power, with consensus EPS moving higher and
Infleqtion’s updated analyst work trims the fair value estimate from $21.83 to $20.43, which signals a modest reset in how the stock is being valued today. This shift sits alongside research that highlights progress on logical qubits and early paying customers, while also flagging execution risk in quantum hardware and uncertainty around long term market
As the outgoing week demonstrated, SK hynix Inc. (NASDAQ:SKHY) is one of the most important stocks in the market. The shares are down by more than 16% over the past five days as investors reacted rather violently to a slate of worrying news regarding the ongoing AI buildout. One major report came in the form
JOST Werke has delivered strong multi year gains for shareholders, so the obvious question now is whether the current share price is still aligned with what its earnings can justify. Over the past 3 years the stock has returned 45.3%, which puts real pressure on the current earnings to support that kind of re-rating. The
Is a market crash coming? That’s the question investors are asking as the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) gets closer to ending its fourth year in a row with double-digit gains. Understandably, a market crash is a scary thought. However, it’s part of investing. When you set up your portfolio, keep that in mind and create
