More Hongkongers are likely to emigrate overseas or move to mainland China compared with a year ago, according to a poll that analysts said showed residents were put off by the high cost of living or losing hope in the city’s future.

Nearly 38 per cent of residents polled by the Chinese University of Hong Kong said they would leave the city if given the opportunity, compared with nearly 29 per cent who expressed the same sentiment when the previous survey carried out in September last year.

The top reasons residents cited for wanting to move abroad included “collapsing liberty, human rights or freedom of expression” (17.7 per cent), followed by “excessive political disputes or unstable politics” (15.1 per cent), an “undemocratic political system” (14.2 per cent), as well as “poor living environment or congested living space” (11.2 per cent).

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But the latest figure was still lower than the 42 per cent recorded in 2021 and the 44 per cent the following year, years which saw more residents leaving the city.

The university’s Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies polled 708 residents between September 28 and November 9.

The most popular destinations among respondents were the United Kingdom – with 14.2 per cent – followed by Canada, Australia and Taiwan.

About a fifth of respondents said they would move to the mainland if circumstances allowed, an increase of 9 percentage points over last year and a change the institution called “statistically significant”.

The two main reasons for going to the mainland were high local living costs and cramped homes.

Residents were also asked to rank Hong Kong’s livability on a scale of zero to 100, with the top end being better. The average score was 56.5, the same as last year.

Hong Kong has seen a wave of emigration in recent years, which helped to push the population down to 7,474,200 in 2020 and further lower to 7,413,070 the year after.

But the population has recently bounced back, rising by 2.1 per cent from the middle of last year to this past June.

Centrist lawmaker Tik Chi-yuen said he expected the trend of middle-class individuals and young people emigrating to continue, despite some reports suggesting that life for Hongkongers in Britain was proving challenging.

“The government’s serious approach to national security, despite clarifying that it targets only a small minority, has made many people feel uncomfortable staying here,” he said. “It’s as if their freedom is slowly diminishing.

“The emphasis on patriotic education may also be contributing to this sentiment. These changes take time to process, and some feel that Hong Kong’s distinctiveness has been lost due to the government’s assertive style.”

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Those who wanted to move to the mainland were driven by lower living expenses and more affordable options for housing and elderly services over the border, Tik said.

“Some young people in Hong Kong choose to move to mainland China, such as to Shanghai and other first-tier cities due to job opportunities,” he said. “This is beneficial for the integration between the two places, and I consider it a healthy phenomenon.”

Professor Paul Yip Siu-fai, a demographics expert at the University of Hong Kong, agreed the trend of Hongkongers moving over the border would continue due to the increased affordability of living on the mainland.

“Mainland China is enticing Hong Kong residents to visit and even settle in order to boost the economy through increased consumption,” Yip said. “High living costs may prompt people to think about how to spend their money more wisely, including relocating to the mainland.”

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Gary Ng Cheuk-yan, a senior economist at the Asia-Pacific at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, said the survey showed the general weak confidence of residents in the city’s future.

“There is no improvement in livability and residents are exploring alternatives and may turn cautious about domestic spending as they are not confident about future economic growth and the potential for better livability,” Ng said.

“Under such a scenario, residents will become cautious and seek to save more and invest overseas for future opportunities.”