The Evolution of Media and Politics
For decades, media and politics have been connected at the hips. Politicians leverage media to get their message out to the public, while media uses politicians to gain advertising dollars and viewership. Throughout U.S. history, the media has had a dramatic impact on politics and the country. In the early 1900s, Teddy Roosevelt had to ride a train throughout the country and tirelessly shout his message at large crowds. While political rallies of this nature occur today, media has evolved a long way since then. Later, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Teddy’s fifth cousin who would become the longest-serving U.S. president, revolutionized communication via radio with his infamous “Fireside” chats during the Great Depression and World War 2.
Fast forward to October 1960, and the entire nation was glued to their black and white television sets as Robert F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon participated in the first televised presidential debate. The impact of television on the 1960 election, and thus, history, cannot be understated. JFK ultimately won the presidential election after three vicious debates between the two. Historians often say that the more polished Nixon won more voters who listened to the radio debate, while JFK won those who watched TV due to his undeniable charisma.
Media is Evolving Again
Those who study history can point to the wildly popular “Fireside Chats” and the first televised debates as monumental shifts in media. Media would never go back to how it was before, and politicians would need to adjust. For the past 50 years or so, cable television and news have dominated the media landscape. However, the 2024 election marks another monumental shift in how media is consumed.
Trust in Traditional Media Plummets
According to a recent Gallup poll, American trust in mass media has reached record lows. Only 31% of Americans express a “fair amount” of confidence in the media’s ability to report the news “fully, accurately, and fairly.”
The Rise of Independent Media
To bring our journey full circle, let’s discuss Robert Kennedy, the nephew of JFK and former independent candidate for president in the 2024 election. Though Kennedy ultimately lost his presidential bid, he was one of the most successful independent candidates in years. Kennedy chalked up his media success to podcasts, namely “The All in Podcast.” The All in Podcast is a top-rated podcast with four venture capitalists who discuss everything from politics to markets.
More and more Americans are turning to independent media like podcasts to consume their news. Independent media allows consumers to be more selective, trust their media more, access media on demand, and watch and listen to long-form podcasts with little interruption (instead of the rushed soundbites on mainstream media). Kennedy is not the only presidential candidate who leveraged podcasts this cycle. Kamala Harris recently went on the provocative “Call Her Daddy” podcast. Meanwhile, Donald Trump joined the “Joe Rogan Experience” and garnered millions of views.
Winners: Spotify, Apple, Amazon
Thus far, streaming provider Spotify (SPOT) is the biggest winner of the new media paradigm. In 2020, Spotify reportedly paid comedian and MMA commentator Joe Rogan ~$100 million to join Spotify. Over the past two years, SPOT is up nearly 400%, and earlier this year, SPOT renewed Rogan in a $250 million mega-deal.
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Other popular podcasting hubs include Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN). However, SPOT benefits the most because it is the most focused on the podcasting and streaming business, and the shift moves the needle more than mega-cap tech companies like AAPL and AMZN.
Speculative Media Stocks to Watch
BuzzFeed (BZFD)
BuzzFeed is a media firm known for its viral quizzes, videos, and pop culture entertainment. Although the company and its stock have sunk in popularity, former 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy injected life into the stock earlier this year by taking an activist stake in it.
Trump Media & Tech (DJT)
DJT is the parent company of Donald Trump’s “Truth Social” platform. The company is unprofitable and far less popular than Elon Musk’s X platform. That said, investors are piling into the company as they anticipate a Trump victory. Shares are up more than 200% in October alone.
Rumble (RUM)
Rumble is a video-sharing platform aimed at right-wing users. The platform was created as an alternative to YouTube, and is popular among right-wing users.
Bottom Line
The 2024 presidential election marks a meteoric shift in media consumption from traditional to independent media. Spotify is the big winner.
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