Europe will face a difficult summer of possible fuel shortages and other oil-related problems, and even the best case scenario will be tough, said Dan Jorgensen, the European Union Energy Commissioner, on Tuesday.
“I have to be quite blunt and say that even in the best case scenarios, it’s not a very good case,” he said, speaking at an event in Madrid, Spain. Even if the Iran war ended today and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened – not a very realistic prospect – “it’ll take more than a couple of years to get back to the production levels that we have now,” he added.
When asked about the option of imposing a windfall tax on oil and gas companies to help cushion the blow to consumers – as the EU did in 2022 during the Ukraine-Russia war – Jorgensen dismissed the possibility.
“On oil, it’s a little bit different,” he said. Compared to Russian natural gas, Middle Eastern oil takes “weeks” to travel to Europe.
“My estimation is that we are looking into a summer that’s definitely a summer that’s going to be difficult … We might experience security of supply problems on jet fuel, maybe later, even also on diesel,” he said, pointing to airlines reducing their demand by closing down some routes.
While it’s hard to say what a worst-case scenario might look like, he offered a grim projection: “If this goes on for many months or even years, we’re looking at a totally new world order and probably very, very severe economic consequences that goes far beyond only the energy sector.”
