China has condemned a visit by a group of senior Japanese politicians to Taiwan as another example of Tokyo meddling in internal affairs.

Beijing is ramping up accusations that Japan is swerving back to the militarism that led to catastrophic conflict across the Asia-Pacific region in the early decades of the last century.

Tensions between the two East Asian powers have been rising after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi responded to a question in parliament last month by saying that any “contingency” involving Taiwan would also inevitably threaten the national security of Japan.

Beijing claims the island is part of China and insists it will be “reunited” with the mainland, by force if necessary. The pressure on Taiwan has increased in recent years and there are growing fears that China will attempt to seize the island.

Analysts say that successive Japanese governments have long held the same position on the Taiwan situation, but not previously stated it. The more forthright Takaichi, however, has been more explicit and is incurring Beijing’s wrath.

Japan’s Taiwan outreach tests China’s patience

Koichi Hagiuda, one of Takaichi’s most trusted advisers, led a Japanese delegation to the self-ruled island this week, where Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te expressed his gratitude for Takaichi’s friendship and her support for a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” 

Speaking at his office in Taipei on Monday, Lai reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, adding that the people of Taiwan “sincerely appreciate” Japan’s support.

China has demanded that Takaichi retract her statement on Japan’s position on Taiwan, with a Foreign Ministry official saying in a press briefing on Monday that Japan is violating previous bilateral agreements on the “one-China” principle.

The criticism has come in parallel with editorials in state-run media accusing Japan of provocations that risk plunging the region into war, 80 years after the end of World War II.

“Japan must face up to its history of aggression, deeply reflect upon its crimes, and offer a sincere apology,” said an editorial by the Xinhua news agency.

“Takaichi’s erroneous remarks on Taiwan, framed as a response to Japan’s ‘survival-threatening situation,’ along with her threats of military intervention, openly challenge the victorious outcomes of World War II, essentially seeking to deny the post-war international order and revive Japanese militarism.”

At home, however, Takaichi’s resolve in the face of China’s pressure appears strong, with her support rate standing at a solid 68% in a survey conducted by The Asahi Shimbun newspaper. And while many fear that strained ties with Beijing will impact the Japanese economy, 55% of the people indicated that they back her position on China.

Takaichi’s support stays solid

“The China kerfuffle is playing in Takaichi’s favor and her support seems solid,” said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at the Tokyo branch of Temple University.

“China has been rattling Japan’s cage with repeated visits to the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, other naval operations close to Japanese waters and a joint exercise with Russian bombers that simulated bombing runs, but Takaichi is standing up to Beijing,” he told DW.

“She has tried to do it in a softly-softly way, but Hagiuda is a senior member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and this visit has gone ahead despite the state of relations,” he said. “The message that Takaichi is sending is that she is not cowed.”

There will inevitably be concern in Japan that Beijing will step up the economic pressure, but that has not happened yet, perhaps surprisingly, analysts say.

Chinese travel firms have been instructed to not book trips to Japan, with around 562,600 mainland Chinese arriving in November, up only 3% on the same month the previous year. This is a sharp contrast with the 111% increase in Chinese arrivals in November 2024 from the previous year.

Yet Kingston points out that China has not halted exports of critical rare earth minerals or taken other similarly draconian measures.

“China does have other arrows in its quiver, but right now its own economy is not great and they recognize that the relationship is mutually beneficial,” he said. “They may have calculated that they cannot do too much but they are letting their people speak out about Japan needing to be humble and recognize its history.”

‘Measured’ response from China

Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor of politics and international relations at Tokyo’s Waseda University, also believes Beijing’s response has been “relatively measured” because of domestic economic concerns that could spill over into public anger against the government.

“China is not able to exert so much economic pressure out of concern about the impact it will have at home,” he said. “But I do expect Beijing to increase actions by its military off southern Japan, such as more air and maritime drills, as well as more coast guard ships entering Japanese waters around the Senkaku Islands,” he said.

“But I also think they are biding their time politically,” he said.

Shigemura believes that Beijing senses that Takaichi’s LDP will be in trouble again when the next general election comes around, in 2028, and that the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and Komeito, both more centrist parties, will gain seats and influence in a future government.

Beijing’s hope is that the DPJ and Komeito will be more accommodating to China and not see any attempt to seize Taiwan by force as a reason for Japan to intervene militarily.

“It might be a risky tactic, but patience could pay off for China,” he said.

Edited by: Keith Walker