Are we witnessing the end of Manchester City‘s incredible period of dominance, and have recent weeks exposed the first cracks in the winning empire built by Pep Guardiola? When the Champions League fixture list for the new 36-team league phase was released in September, nobody could have seriously predicted that Wednesday’s clash with Paris Saint-Germain would be a make-or-break game for two of Europe’s most powerful clubs. But that is exactly what it has become, with both sides in danger of not advancing to the knockout rounds.

For PSG, the club’s decision to dispense with a policy of superstar signings (Kylian Mbappé left on a free transfer for Real Madrid in the summer) and focus on up-and-coming talent helps explain their unexpected slide in the Champions League, but Luis Enrique’s team are still leaving domestic rivals trailing in their wake in France. Not only are PSG still on course for another Ligue 1 title, unbeaten in 18 games and leading second-place Marseille by 10 points, but they’re alive in the French Cup and eyeing up another treble.

It is a different story at City. Having guided the team to an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League title last season, Guardiola has endured a series of career lows as manager this season. City are miles off the pace in the title race — 12 points behind leaders Liverpool, having played a game more — and ended 2024 with just one win in 13 games in all competitions. That run included five successive defeats and an overall sequence of nine losses in 13 games.

Despite three wins and two draws in their past five league games, Guardiola’s squad are showing signs of age and decline. Right-back Kyle Walker, 34, wants to leave, while midfielder Ilkay Gündogan, also 34, has been a shadow of his former self since returning to the club from Barcelona last summer. Midfielder Kevin De Bruyne, 33, is out of contract this summer and has yet to discuss a new deal.

Star striker Erling Haaland‘s decision to sign a 10-year contract last week was an unexpected coup for City and a huge morale boost for all connected with the club, but there remains so much uncertainty around the Etihad.

Guardiola’s future remains the subject of speculation despite signing his own contract extension in November, City have lost their magic touch in the transfer market, opponents have lost their fear of Guardiola’s once-formidable team, and the club are seeing homegrown players (including Cole Palmer and Liam Delap) exceed expectations with their new teams after perhaps being offloaded too soon.

Every generation has a dominant team, but the empires built by Liverpool in the 1970s and 1980s and Sir Alex Ferguson’s winning machine at Manchester United were both eventually brought down and overtaken by rivals. Is the same now happening to City?

Rather than wait for the benefit of hindsight, their peers’ stories suggest that the warning signs of the end may already be showing.

With additional reporting by Beth Lindop

Liverpool: ‘All the continuity left with Kenny Dalglish’

In September 1989, Liverpool recorded a 9-0 win against Crystal Palace at Anfield to go top of the old First Division. Having lost the league title on the final day of the previous season, it was an emphatic statement of intent that Liverpool, who had been crowned champions nine times since 1976, were back.

Liverpool would go on to win the 1989-90 title, but it would be their last for 30 years, and it was another game against Palace that season that warned of the decline to come.

In an FA Cup semifinal at Villa Park in April 1990, Liverpool had been expected to cruise to victory over their relegation-threatened opponents, but manager Kenny Dalglish’s team were beaten 4-3 after extra-time in a huge shock. In February 1991, Dalglish stepped down and the club would win just two trophies — the 1992 FA Cup and 1995 EFL Cup — for the remainder of the decade.

There were other key exits that contributed to the downward spiral. When John Smith stepped down as Liverpool chairman in 1990, the club had amassed 11 league titles, four European Cups, two UEFA Cups, three FA Cups and four League Cups since his elevation to the role in 1973. He was an understated local businessman who set the tone for Liverpool’s approach on and off the field. “We’re a very, very modest club,” Smith said. “We don’t talk. We don’t boast. But we’re very professional.”

In tandem with the club’s chief executive, Peter Robinson, Smith successfully appointed three managers — Bob Paisley, Joe Fagan and Dalglish — in the space of 11 years and sanctioned a series of astute signings including Dalglish, Graeme Souness, Ian Rush, John Barnes and Peter Beardsley, all of whom became club legends and key figures in successful teams. Liverpool also mastered the art of moving big players, including goalkeeper Ray Clemence and team captain Souness, out of the club at the right time.

When Smith stepped down, the club soon started making mistakes with player signings and managerial appointments: Souness replaced Dalglish in 1991, leaving his role as manager of Glasgow Rangers as Liverpool abandoned Smith’s approach of appointing managers from within the club.

“If you think about the continuity at Liverpool from Bill Shankly onwards, that all left with Kenny,” former Liverpool defender Steve Nicol told ESPN.

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Nicol pinpoints the moment Liverpool’s era of dominance started to unravel

Steve Nicol speaks about the game when he realised Liverpool’s dominance was coming to an end in the 90s.

Another key factor in the decline was a failure to refresh an ageing squad, having successfully done so during the 1970s and ’80s. When Dalglish stepped down, Liverpool were still reliant on many players who had delivered their success in the ’80s, including Bruce Grobbelaar, Nicol and Ian Rush, who had all played in the 1984 European Cup final against AS Roma. Grobbelaar, Glen Hysen and Beardsley were all in their 30s, and Nicol and Rush were 29. Captain Alan Hansen announced his retirement at the age of 35 a month after Dalglish’s departure.

Dalglish’s final two signings, David Speedie and Jimmy Carter, would play just 21 games for the Reds between them, setting the tone for an erratic recruitment policy that followed. Throughout the 1990s, Liverpool fell into the trap of signing inferior players, often for inflated fees. The subtle art of making astute moves was lost.

“When Kenny left and Graeme came in, there were a few of us who were past our best,” Nicol said. “But even if that wasn’t true, the place needed freshening up because a cloud was hanging over the club. Graeme had to make a lot of changes quickly.

“The majority of our team was made up of players who were Scottish, Welsh and Irish, so because of the UEFA rules [clubs were limited to three non-domestic players] Souness had to get rid of a lot of players and bring in English players. It wasn’t like he had a choice of scouring Europe for the best players.”

Liverpool’s fall was swift. By the time the Premier League began in 1992, they had fallen behind Arsenal and Manchester United and were also eclipsed by big-spending newcomers such as Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United. It wasn’t until Gerard Houllier’s team won treble of League Cup, FA Cup and UEFA Cup in 2001 that Liverpool became a force again. But despite a Champions League win under Rafael Benitez in 2005, it took the appointment of Jurgen Klopp in 2015 to provide the catalyst for the club to finally return to the summit of the English game.

Manchester United: The damaging post-Ferguson years

Manchester United’s 6-1 defeat against Manchester City at Old Trafford in October 2011 was the biggest loss, home or away, since Ferguson took charge in November 1986. United went into the game as reigning champions, having won a 12th Premier League title in 18 years, but City were an emerging force under Roberto Mancini and they humiliated United at Old Trafford with goals from Mario Balotelli (2), Edin Dzeko (2), Sergio Aguero and David Silva — three of City’s goals came after the 89th minute.

“It looked humiliating, but it was actually self-annihilation,” Ferguson wrote in his 2013 autobiography. “After the final whistle, I informed the players they had disgraced themselves.”

The margin of victory proved crucial, with City clinching the title on goal difference — eight clear of United — on the final day of the season and the 10-goal swing in City’s favour from that derby proving decisive. “Of all the setbacks I endured, nothing compared to losing the league to City,” Ferguson said.

Ferguson was able to wrestle the title back a year later in his final season — though United haven’t won the title since — but the 6-1 defeat was when the rot set in. Never before had United endured such a humbling defeat under Ferguson.

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Why travelling with Ferguson at Man United was like being on ‘Air Force One’

Mark Ogden speaks about how Sir Alex Ferguson was treated when travelling with Manchester United on preseason.

His retirement in 2013 was the crucial departure, but David Gill’s exit as CEO was just as significant. Gill had been the calm voice in the boardroom, the conduit between Ferguson and United’s U.S. owners, the Glazer family, and his relationship with Ferguson was one of mutual trust.

“Of course, we have had a million arguments,” Ferguson said about Gill in 2013. “But I always enjoyed them because I know that David has two great qualities: He is straight, and he always puts Manchester United first.”

Gill was replaced by United’s commercial director, Ed Woodward, who oversaw a period of lavish signings as the club tried to spend their way out of the slump — Paul Pogba (£89.3m), Romelu Lukaku (£75m), Angel Di Maria (£59.7m) — and the appointment of four managers in five years including Champions League winners Louis van Gaal and Jose Mourinho — before he left his role as executive vice chairman in January 2022.

Under Woodward, United spent more than £1 billion on new signings and over £40m in severance packages to fired managers David Moyes, Van Gaal, Mourinho and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Erik ten Hag’s dismissal last November cost United a further £10.4m in compensation to the former Ajax coach.

United’s failure to refresh their squad dates back to the summer of 2009, when Cristiano Ronaldo sealed a then-world record £80m transfer to Real Madrid and the club chose not to turn Carlos Tevez’s two-year loan deal into a permanent move, allowing the forward to move across town to Manchester City.

While City were embarking on their own incredible spending spree, funded by their new Abu Dhabi owners, the United manager said he wanted to find “value in the market.” Ronaldo and Tevez were replaced by £18m Wigan winger Antonio Valencia and Newcastle striker Michael Owen, who arrived on a free transfer. That summer also saw United sign relatively unknown forwards Gabriel Obertan and Mame Biram Diouf.

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How Ferguson’s legacy was impacted by the squad he left at Man United

Rob Dawson and Mark Ogden reflect on Sir Alex’s Ferguson’s departure from Manchester United.

United had tried planning for the long term by signing Phil Jones and Chris Smalling as successors to centre-back pairing Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic. Mexico forward Javier Hernandez was signed for £7m from Chivas in 2010, with £7.2m spent to sign Portuguese winger Bebé in the same summer. Meanwhile, Ronaldo would become a trophy-winning goal machine with Real Madrid, while Tevez became the poster-boy — literally — and catalyst for City’s success on the other side of town.

However, by the time Ferguson retired, the squad had started to show signs of decline. Ryan Giggs (39) was still playing in midfield, while Paul Scholes (38) had been persuaded to come out of retirement by Ferguson in 2012 to solve a squad shortage. Ferdinand (34), Vidic (31), Patrice Evra (32) and Michael Carrick (31) were all aging mainstays of the squad Ferguson handed over to successor Moyes.

Compounding United’s decline was the fact that Ferguson’s judgement had also started to slip. After losing the title to City in 2012, Ferguson believed that his young players would deliver a bright future. “I felt I had a core of players who were sure to improve,” he said. “In Rafael da Silva, Jones, Smalling, David de Gea, Tom Cleverley, Danny Welbeck, Hernandez, I had a nucleus that would be good for the long haul and a fit Anderson would be part of that group.”

History would prove Ferguson badly wrong.

So what are we seeing at Man City this season?

First, the bad news for City: The pitfalls that befell Liverpool and United are already visible for Guardiola and his players. There have already been shock defeats, departures of key personnel, transfer mistakes, and maybe even some of the complacency that crucially obscured the warning signs at both Anfield and Old Trafford.

When was City’s “6-1 moment?” This season has thrown up plenty of shock results, but last season’s FA Cup final was key. Chasing a Premier League/FA Cup double a year after defeating United at Wembley in the second part of their Premier League/FA Cup/Champions League treble, Guardiola’s side were beaten by their neighbours, who had just recorded their lowest-ever Premier League (8th).

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How Man City’s 2025 transfers can prevent a falloff

Rob Dawson says the transfer moves Manchester City make in 2025 will decide if they continue to be a Premier League title contender or not.

Having been so dominant on the domestic scene, City’s defeat against a much weaker opponent highlighted a frailty that others would then expose more regularly. Liverpool and United had lost games before, but both defeats were big-stage failures when they were supposed to be at their best, and the same applies to City losing against United at Wembley. It was Guardiola’s first, and only, defeat in a domestic cup final as City manager.

“It was my decisions [that cost us],” Guardiola said afterwards. “It’s my mistake: the gameplan was not good.”

Off-the-pitch changes are also starting to have an impact at the Etihad; the question now is whether they prove to be as damaging? City have seen a number of senior figures leave the Etihad over the past 18 months, including chief operating officer Omar Berrada and academy director Jason Wilcox (who are now CEO and technical director respectively at United.) However, the biggest executive exit will be Txiki Begiristain, who has held the post of director of football since October 2012.

Begiristain, a former Barcelona teammate of Guardiola’s before becoming director of football at Camp Nou in 2003, will step down at the end of this season to be replaced by Hugo Viana, who has been recruited from Portuguese champions Sporting CP. Begiristain’s presence at City was crucial in the club’s move to hire Guardiola as coach in 2016 and the two men have an incredibly close working and personal relationship, even more deep-rooted and closer than Ferguson’s was with Gill.

The loss of Begiristain’s experience, contacts and, most importantly of all, his bond with Guardiola, could be a major blow.

Until recently, City looked to have avoided the squad pitfalls that proved to be the undoing of Liverpool and United. But after two relatively quiet summers in the transfer market — City announced a profit of £139m from player moves in their most recent accounts — Guardiola’s squad are now in need of an overhaul due to the age profile of several key players.

Walker (34), Gundogan (34) and De Bruyne (33) all need replacing, while Bernardo Silva, John Stones and Mateo Kovacic are all past their 30th birthday; Nathan Aké, Jack Grealish and Manuel Akanji are all 29. Despite the number of 30-somethings in his team, Guardiola has insisted that the age of his players is not an issue. “It depends on the performance,” Guardiola said in November. “There are players who are 30 and more than 30 who perform incredibly well. There are players who are 23 who perform not good. I don’t see the age. All teams have players with certain ages.”

Having allowed Gundogan to leave for Barcelona as a free agent in 2023, City’s decision to re-sign the midfielder last summer was a rare backward step for the club, but City have also sanctioned the departures of homegrown youngsters including Palmer (now at Chelsea), Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) and Romeo Lavia (Chelsea). The club have been sleepwalking into a major squad overhaul, but with the Premier League’s 115 charges for financial breaches hanging over the club and Begiristain due to leave this summer, they may have left it too late to address the issue decisively as other issues become clear.

Sources have told ESPN that 22-year-old James McAtee, a player regarded by Guardiola as a potential replacement for Bernardo Silva, could be the next to leave due to frustration over a lack of playing time; Newcastle, Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig are all interested. Walker’s surprise transfer request this month, and goalkeeper Éderson‘s frustration at losing his starting spot to Stefan Ortega, have added to a rare sense of discontent within the squad. Meanwhile, Guardiola’s increasingly agitated persona in the technical area has also raised doubts as to whether he will see out his new deal.

However, there is some good news in the form of Haaland’s new 10-year contract. For the club’s biggest star to commit to such a long-term deal suggests there is optimism that this season is nothing more than a blip, and an unavoidable consequence of a team needing to be refreshed.

City have made signings to bolster Guardiola’s squad in January, with deals for young defenders Abdukodir Khusanov (£40m) and Vitor Reis (£30m) set to be followed by the £55m signing of Eintracht forward Omar Marmoush. But are they the right moves or a repeat of the gambles — and mistakes — made by Liverpool and United? Time will tell whether they are City’s Jimmy Carter and Gabriel Obertan, or the new Julián Álvarez and Rúben Dias. If they are to avoid experiencing the same fall as Liverpool and United, City need them to be the latter.