The Lunar New Year has traditionally been a boom period for Macao’s tourism sector and this year was no different, with the city welcoming some 1.3 million visitors between 28 January and 4 February. While this figure represents a slight drop of 3.5 percent year-on-year, the daily average of more than 100,000 travellers entering Macao before, during and after the festivities was deemed “considerable” by the Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO). 

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Concerns, however, have been raised within the local tourism industry over the year-on-year drop of 8.9 percent in Hong Kong arrivals during the 8-day “golden week” period. Early last month, Andy Wu, the president of the Travel Industry Council of Macau, urged the government to take note of the “relatively big” fall in visitors from the neighbouring SAR, which he said stemmed from Hong Kongers choosing to visit Shenzhen over Macao. 

How important is the Hong Kong tourism market to Macao? 

In the 1990s, Hong Kong made up the lion’s share of Macao’s total visitor arrival numbers, accounting for 82.06 percent (4.6 million) in 1990 and 72.46 percent (5.6 million) in 1995. 

However, with the central government’s introduction of the Individual Visit Scheme in 2003, Hong Kong visitor arrivals in Macao were outpaced by those from mainland China for the first time. The latter group has solidified its position as Macao’s predominant tourism market in the years since. 

However, Glenn McCartney, an associate professor in integrated resort and tourism management at the University of Macau (UM), maintains that Hong Kong visitors continue to be “a very important part of tourism to Macao.” 

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Citing data from the Macao Tourism Government Office (MGTO), the tourism expert points out that the 7.2 million Hongkongers who visited Macao last year accounted for a substantial 21 percent of the city’s total number of visitor arrivals, making the Hong Kong market second only to that of mainland China, which contributed 70.1 percent (24.5 million) of last year’s total. 

“Anywhere in the world with that sort of level of visitation is a very important visitation number,” McCartney notes. 

The MGTO also recognises this point, pledging in a statement released last month that it would implement both online and offline marketing initiatives “to secure visitations from Hong Kong as Macao’s second largest visitor market continuously.” 

Are Hong Kong visitors disappearing from Macao? 

Although the recent 8.9 percent drop in Hong Kong travellers has concerned some in the industry, McCartney says he doesn’t “consider the percentage substantial” in the broader context of the cumulative visitor arrivals recorded this Lunar New Year. The expert’s comments, however, come with the caveat that more data needs to be collected and analysed in the months ahead. 

At the same time, there is no denying that an increasing number of Hongkongers are redirecting their attention to neighbouring Shenzhen, especially after the lifting of Covid-19 pandemic restrictions in early 2023. Last year saw 81.91 million Hong Kongers heading over to mainland China, a year-on-year rise of almost 53 percent, according to government data collated by the Hong Kong-based media outlet HK01.  

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McCartney points out that the comparatively cheaper prices in Shenzhen have made the mainland tech hub a magnet for Hong Kongers who now go there for a range of purposes from shopping for daily necessities to dining at restaurants. 

Sherry Lee, a Hong Konger of Shanghainese descent who is currently studying at university, agrees that Shenzhen’s lower prices are part of the reason she travels to the city to enjoy meals and other offerings such as karaoke, massages and theme parks. 

“Things are just cheaper there, especially when I was working,” Lee says, adding that she visits Shenzhen roughly three times a month. “I’m able to spend more and get much more out of purchasing and consuming in [the] mainland compared to Hong Kong.” 

The opening of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link in 2018 has only further fuelled the trend, allowing local residents to travel from Hong Kong West Kowloon to Shenzhen’s Futian Railway Station in roughly 15 minutes for as low as HK$74 (US$9.5). That’s only just a few dollars more than a bus ticket to Macao and considerably less than the weekday HK$175 ferry fare.

“You’re looking at speed, access and affordability,” McCartney says. “People will compare that to Macao.” 

Nonetheless, Lee feels that Macao and Shenzhen are too different in terms of their development to allow for a fair comparison. 

“Over the years I’ve visited Shenzhen, it just keeps on constantly changing,” the university student points out. 

She mentions that the mainland economic powerhouse has a habit of replacing shops and renovating malls. In contrast, Lee describes Macao as having a “long lasting culture” and notes that “nothing much has changed” during her visits over the years – meaning that as a good thing. “If I go to Macao, I know what I’m going to see, I know what I’m going to buy.” 

Does Macao have advantages over Shenzhen? 

Even if Macao loses some Hong Kong traffic to Shenzhen, McCartney is of the opinion that “we shouldn’t be concerned because we will still maintain a large number of visitation from Hong Kong.” 

The tourism expert cites a number of factors that work in favour of the former Portuguese enclave, including the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB) in 2018, which has cut travel time between the two SARs to just 30 minutes. 

McCartney also cites the long history that Macao has with Hong Kong as a strength, pointing out that “people from [the neighbouring SAR] have been coming here – families and individuals – over the years,” resulting in “a large volume of repeat visitation to Macao.” 

Macao’s integrated resorts on the Cotai Strip, which house the only legal casinos in China, as well as a variety of non-gaming offerings, are a major draw as well, giving Hong Kong punters and tourists a reason to choose Macao over Shenzhen. 

For Lee, who says she visits Macao around once a year, concerts and fan-meets featuring her favourite celebrities and K-pop idols are one of the main reasons she takes the HZMB bus to the former Portuguese enclave. 

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In winning over Hong Kong visitors, the UM professor points out that the SAR doesn’t necessarily have to compete with Shenzhen in terms of pricing, but can win on other elements, including “value” and “service quality.”  

“I think Macao has a lot of strengths to leverage off, and that’s very important,” says McCartney. 

At the same time, Hong Kong’s mania for all things Shenzhen isn’t going away. Indeed, Hong Kong’s English-language paper of record, the South China Morning Post, recently declared that “Shenzhen is now a more popular weekend destination than Macao among Hongkongers looking for great deals on food, accommodation and designer shopping.” 

That’s why McCartney emphasises that it is “very important in the medium to longer term” for Macao to build its branding and image, in order to allow people to understand the depth of its tourism offerings. 

In the end, celebrating its difference will be Macao’s strength – as it should be for every destination within the Greater Bay Area. “I do love Macao, Shenzhen and Hong Kong all for different reasons,” Lee points out. “Every place is great for its own reason.”