For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.

Cognex (CGNX) stock trades at 52.3 times its earnings over the last twelve months. That multiple is more than twice the 23.0 times for the S&P 500. Buyers at that price are paying today for profit the machine vision company has not yet earned, while sales have grown for only two years after falling in the two years to July 2024. How fast would Cognex have to grow to back that price, and is it growing that fast?

Cognex Grew A Bit Faster Than Its Price Requires

For now, yes. Revenue grew 17.1% over the four quarters ended July 5, 2026. That pace is slightly faster than the rate Cognex would need to maintain for five years at this price. That marks one year of growth, though, not five.

Cognex held a market value of about $9.1 billion at the October 22, 2026 close. Assuming a P/E of 25.2, that valuation matches yearly profit of about $363 million. Generating that profit requires about $2.2 billion of revenue at a 16.4% net margin, compared with the $1.09 billion the company produces now. The 16.4% margin sits between the 12.7% average and the 17.9% peak Cognex recorded over the last twelve quarters. Trefis gives Cognex five years because today’s P/E is between two and three times the assumed multiple. At this price, Cognex would therefore have to grow revenue about 15.2% a year.

The P/E, the margin and the five-year timeline are Trefis assumptions. Trefis built the multiple by placing a 60% weight on 22.0, its table level for technology hardware companies. The remaining 40% relies on the average P/E for Cognex over the last twelve quarters. That historical average was 64.4. However, Trefis counts any company average above 30 as 30, so the blend uses 30.

What Cognex Sells, And What Management Has Guided

On its fiscal Q2 2026 call, held August 6, 2026, management said electronics and semiconductor customers both delivered double-digit growth. Data center work accounts for a low single-digit share of revenue, but it is growing more than 30% from a year earlier, and Cognex is pushing its OneVision AI platform into that supply chain. In September, the company said it would acquire RealSense, a 3D robotic perception platform.

Management guided for fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.13 billion to $1.15 billion. At the midpoint, that sits 14.6% above fiscal 2025. Following that year, Cognex would have to grow about 15.9% a year to the end of the five years. That required pace is faster than management has guided for fiscal 2026. Management also guided for adjusted earnings per share to rise about 63% at the midpoint, far faster than revenue.

What If Cognex Has Less Time To Grow?

The required growth changes most depending on the number of years Cognex is given. If allotted three years instead of five, the company would have to grow about 26.7% a year.

The company’s own record makes five years at this pace hard to take for granted. Revenue over the twelve months ended July 2026 sat barely above its level four years earlier, following sales declines during the two years to July 2024. Averaged over the last three years, Cognex grew revenue 7.3% a year. That stands at about half the pace required now.

For the price to hold, Cognex has to keep growing near its recent pace for five more years, maintaining margins near their recent best. If growth slips back toward the three-year average, Cognex would need more years, and the stock becomes a riskier bet. Revenue growth in the next quarterly report, covering third-quarter results, is the measure to watch.

Does This Mean You Should Act On CGNX?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.

Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.