May 12, 2026, 8:06 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON – Donald Trump is unlikely to get the “big, fat, hug” he’s envisioning from China’s notoriously straitlaced leader, President Xi Jinping, when he arrives in Beijing for a pomp-filled visit and talks on Iran.
A firm handshake and a ceremonial red carpet is more like it. And lots of arm-twisting over U.S. military support for Taiwan.
“We are working together smartly, and very well! Doesn’t that beat fighting???” Trump said of the authoritarian leader in April. “He’s a great gentleman. I find him to be an amazing man,” Trump told reporters May 11.
Trump prioritizes his relationships with world leaders and views his rapport with them “as one of his special skills and his unique strengths,” said Alexander Gray, who was Asia director, and later, chief of staff, on the National Security Council in Trump’s first administration.
But, Gray said, “The president is also very mindful of the fact that, in many ways, what Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party want is 180 degrees different from what the United States wants.”
China is America’s top economic rival – and Beijing is closely aligned with Moscow and Tehran, two longtime U.S. foes with whom it’s involved in armed conflict directly or indirectly.
Administrations and lawmakers of both U.S. political parties have taken aggressive steps to wean the United States off Chinese-made products since the coronavirus pandemic exposed supply chain vulnerabilities. For the first half of last year, Trump and Xi were engaged in an ugly trade war.
“You can respect somebody as a leader but also be their competitor and in some instances be their adversary,” said Kelly Ann Shaw, one of the negotiators of the U.S.-China trade agreement during Trump’s first administration.
Trump wants a stable relationship with China, current and former U.S. officials say, while the United States simultaneously prepares for long-term economic competition with Beijing.
The Chinese government also emphasized a desire to “expand cooperation and manage differences in the spirit of equality, respect and mutual benefit” ahead of the upcoming meeting.
Iran tops agenda for Trump
The war in Iran and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be the major items on the menu for Trump, with the U.S. leader declaring the ceasefire on “massive life support” and calling Iran’s latest proposal to end the war a “piece of garbage.”
China is Iran’s largest trading partner, and Iran has allowed a number of Chinese-flagged ships to pass through its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. China has aimed to walk a neutral line amid the ongoing tensions, pitching in on Pakistan’s efforts to mediate between the United States and Iran and calling in recent days for a “comprehensive ceasefire.”
Asked May 12 what message Trump has for Xi on Iran, he said: “We’re going to have a long talk about it. I think he’s been relatively good, to be honest with you. You look at the blockade. No problems. They get a lot of their oil from that area; we’ve had no problems.”
Trump has spoken to Xi multiple times about Chinese support for Iran and Russia, and those conversations will continue, said a U.S. official who previewed the trip for reporters.
The leaders are also expected to announce aircraft and agricultural purchasing agreements, and potentially announce joint boards of trade and investments. Tesla’s Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg are among more than a dozen CEOs who are set to join Trump on the trip, according to the White House’s list.
Trump has also said he plans to bring up the detentions of Chinese pastor Ezra Jin Mingri and businessman Jimmy Lai, the former publisher of the independent, Hong Kong-based newspaper Apple Daily.
“People would like him out, and I’d like to see him get out, too,” Trump said of Lai on May 11. “So, I’ll bring him up again.”
Xi expected to raise Taiwan
For China, the potential sale and delivery of $25 billion worth of arms and other defensive equipment to Taiwan is top of mind.
Taiwan’s legislature approved the spending last week after a protracted battle. The United States has approved, but not shipped, $11 billion worth of the weapons. Trump suggested this week that he’s open to blocking future sales.
“I’m going to have that discussion with President Xi. President Xi would like us not to,” Trump said May 11. “That’s one of the many things that I’ll be talking to him about.”
Gray, the National Security Council chief of staff in Trump’s first term, said he doesn’t believe there’s even a small possibility of the president changing U.S. policy toward Taiwan.
“One of the things the president does is before he goes into these engagements, he puts lots of different things on the table in order to keep everyone guessing,” he said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who’s traveling with Trump to China, said last week that the United States has not changed its position, Gray pointed out.
“So I have no reason to think that anything would change this time just as it hasn’t changed over the last 10 years of Trump’s time in public life.”
Broadly speaking, the Chinese government wants the United States to back away from Biden-era pledges to support Taiwan in the event of a military conflict and adhere to the “one-China policy.” Taiwan views itself as independent but China seeks to reunite with the democratically governed territory. American intelligence previously said Xi instructed his military to be ready to conduct an invasion as soon as 2027.
Trump said in August 2025 that Xi told him he would not invade Taiwan during his term. The intelligence community further assessed in March that China does not currently plan to invade and wants to control the island without the use of force.
In the Oval Office ahead of his trip, Trump suggested that even the prospect of a military conflict that could pull in the United States and regional allies like Japan was reason enough to maintain positive relations with Beijing.
“I have a very good relationship with President Xi, because I don’t want that to happen,” Trump said.
Competition, not confrontation
Elsewhere in Washington, concerns are growing that military assets moved in response to the war in Iran and the vast amount of weapons launched against the Middle Eastern nation has massively set America back in the event of a future military conflict with China – the only adversary Pentagon officials have held up as able to compete with the United States.
“My concern is all the assets that are used in Iran, the missiles, the forward deployed units, diplomatic capital are absent now from the Indo-Pacific,” Sen. Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, told reporters May 12. “The Chinese are quite aware of that.”
Sen. Mark Kelly, a Democrat from Arizona, told “Face the Nation” a day prior that Pentagon briefings on the expenditures of munitions in the Iran war had left him shocked – and worried.
“That means the American people are less safe, whether it’s a conflict in the Western Pacific with China or somewhere else in the world.”
In attacking Iran, the U.S. military may have expended more than half of its inventory of weapons considered key to defending against China’s missile capabilities, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Around 2,500 Marines stationed in Japan were deployed to the war months ago. Half of the military’s deployed aircraft carriers and their accompanying warships are engaged in the Iran war, after the USS George H.W. Bush replaced the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Middle East.
“We have patiently accumulated over time these capabilities,” Kurt Campbell, the deputy secretary of state under former President Joe Biden, said of military weapons and personnel moved out of Asia.
“It has been vacated. It is all back in the Middle East. Once you lose it, it’s very hard to get it back,” he told reporters at a May 8 briefing.
