Iran sends first significant message of de-escalation, but with a major caveat

Moments after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in an apparently prerecorded statement that Tehran would halt attacks on its Gulf neighbors under certain conditions, several reported new strikes.

The launches were some of the largest since the war began and coincided with the one-week anniversary of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s killing in strikes by the United States and Israel.

Pezeshkian said the decision to stop attacks on the Gulf unless strikes on Iran originated from those countries’ territories was taken Friday. On Saturday morning, Iran fired 16 ballistic missiles and 121 drones on the United Arab Emirates alone.

Still, in what are the highest-level de-escalatory comments so far from Iran, Pezeshkian apologized to his neighbors for days of strikes that have sparked panic in areas once thought safe.

Since taking office, the reformist leader has presented himself with an almost constant air of regret, issuing multiple public apologies during his tenure – for the sharp deterioration of the national economy, the killing of thousands of protesters during demonstrations and the persistent inefficiencies of his own government.

Now he’s apologizing on behalf of Iran’s armed forces, saying they “acted on their own authority and did what was necessary to defend our homeland with dignity and strength,” a recurring message from some Iranian leaders justifying the heavy targeting of cities across the Gulf Arab states.

Unknown future

It is unclear whether the pronouncements of the Leadership Council, of which Pezeshkian is now a member after US-Israeli strikes killed other key leaders, align with the goals of the armed forces or the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which have independently activated their own measures in response to the US and Israeli attacks.

Pezeshkian’s comments brought relief across Gulf Arab states. Yet the projectiles that flew overhead shortly after his speech show it is too early to say if Iranian attacks have halted.

And his comments came with the condition that territories of Gulf Arab states, which host several large US military bases, are not used to launch attacks against Iran. Pezeshkian’s office stressed in an “explanation” statement after his speech that Iran would “give a decisive response to any aggression from American bases.”

As the region grapples with an unknown future, it remains unclear what actions Iran’s armed forces and its proxies would regard as hostiles to the Islamic Republic.

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Shortly after Pezeshkian’s statement, US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran had “surrendered to its Middle East neighbors” and that it “will be hit very hard” today, with areas of the country under consideration for “complete destruction and certain death.”

Iran’s army issued its own statement saying that if offensive actions against Iran continue, “all military bases and interests of the criminal American regime and the fake Zionist regime on land, sea, and air in the region will be the main targets” of “crushing and severe strikes by the powerful Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Leadership vacuum

Pezeshkian made his comments amid a leadership vacuum and uncertainty over the path forward for Iran.

Joining Pezeshkian on the leadership council are senior cleric Ayatollah Alireza Arefi, 67, a powerful member of the Guardian Council, and Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the notorious head of the judiciary. Together they form the interim authority to manage the country’s affairs until a successor to Khamenei is chosen

As the council struggles to manage wartime affairs for a population of 96 million now enduring the heaviest military strikes in their nation’s history, Iran’s army, now with interim leaders, has become largely independent and isolated.

An image released by Iran's state-run Press TV last Sunday shows the Leadership Council meeting. - Press TV

An image released by Iran’s state-run Press TV last Sunday shows the Leadership Council meeting. – Press TV

Even Oman, a key mediator with close relations to Iran, has been hit by Iranian projectiles. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the attacks were not the government’s choice and that Tehran had already instructed the armed forces to exercise caution in selecting targets, but said military units had grown “independent and somewhat isolated.”

“They are acting based on general instructions given to them in advance,” Araghchi told Al Jazeera this week.

In a possible sign of impatience, several prominent clerics in Iran have urged the swift election of a new supreme leader.

Electing a supreme leader is a confidential and complex process restricted to clerics from a council called the Assembly of Experts – a procedure has been followed only once, 37 years ago, when the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, died and Khamenei was picked as his successor.

Khamenei was elected supreme leader within 24 hours, as the clerics moved swiftly to fill the immense void left by the revered Ayatollah Khomeini. The new leader went on to rule for 37 years before his assassination.

Today, the Islamic Republic recognizes that it faces an existential crisis and is proceeding with extreme caution in selecting its next leader

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