IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), a developer of quantum computing systems, went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) five years ago. Its stock started trading at $10.60 and eventually hit an all-time high of $82.09 on Oct. 13, 2025.
Today, IonQ trades at about $29. Let’s see why it dropped 65% from its all-time high — and where it might be headed over the next year.
Missed AI’s “Act 1”? Act 2 Could Be 14x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn’t buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of “Act 1″—the R&D phase. “Act 2” is the global rollout. Continue »
How fast is IonQ growing?
Quantum computers can process certain computing tasks much faster than classical computers, but they’re bigger, more expensive, and output a higher percentage of errors. IonQ, one of the early movers in this nascent market, is making quantum systems smaller, more scalable, and more accurate by trapping individual ions with tiny lasers to achieve quantum states.
Unlike older electron-powered systems, IonQ’s trapped ion systems don’t need to be cryogenically refrigerated. They can also achieve higher gate fidelity (accuracy) rates. It primarily sells its systems to research institutions and government agencies and offers remote access to them through its cloud-based quantum computing service.
From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect IonQ’s revenue to surge from $130 million to $1.04 billion as it launches new systems, increases its total quantum computing power, and expands its rapidly growing government business.
Why did IonQ’s stock pull back?
IonQ’s business is firing on all cylinders, but a few issues weighed down its stock. At its peak, IonQ’s market cap hit $27.2 billion — or 209 times the revenue it would generate in 2025. That lofty valuation set it up for a steep drop as the Iran war, persistent inflation, and the Fed’s first rate hike in three years drove investors away from growth stocks over the past year.
Another factor was its planned acquisition of the cybersecurity firm Elisity for $1.3 billion in an all-stock deal. To fund that acquisition and its future investments, it priced a $2 billion stock and warrant offering in mid-October. That dilution should persist for the foreseeable future.
What does history suggest will happen next?
Today, IonQ looks more reasonably valued (but certainly not cheap) at 30 times this year’s sales. However, many analysts still expect the Fed to raise its benchmark rates again over the next 12 months to tame inflation. If that happens, IonQ’s stock could sink a lot lower.
