New Delhi: India’s electric vehicle (EV) sales are set to experience a significant surge, with projections indicating an increase from 96,000 units in 2023 to approximately 284,400 by 2027, a 199% growth, according to a report by BloombergNEF. The report forecasts that by 2040, under the Economic Transition Scenario (ETS), EV sales will exceed 5.9 million units.
The report underscores the critical need for India to achieve a 100% sale of zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) by 2038 to meet its net-zero passenger vehicle fleet targets. Additionally, it highlights that India’s fleet of internal combustion engine cars will reach its peak in 2033 at about 64.5 million vehicles, according to the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), which is three years earlier than the peak in the ETS.
The anticipated growth in EV sales is driven by several key factors, including rapidly declining battery costs and advancements in battery technology, which are enhancing the economic viability of EVs relative to their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts. Additionally, increasing consumer interest fueled by more model launches is expected to propel market growth.
According to the report, India’s internal combustion engine vehicle fleet is projected to reach its peak in 2033 with about 64.5 million vehicles and then begin to decline. This peak is three years earlier than what is forecasted in the ETS, indicating a faster transition to electric vehicles under the Net Zero Scenario (NZS).
The comprehensive study highlighted that while EV adoption has been uneven globally, with slower growth noted in the U.S. and Europe due to regulatory and political shifts, countries like India are catching up fast. Notably, the share of electric cars as part of new passenger vehicle sales is expected to jump significantly, from 17.8% in 2023 to 33% by 2027, and eventually reaching 73% by 2040 in the ETS.
The global context shows that China, the U.S., and Europe continue to dominate the EV market, accounting for 89% of global passenger EV sales in 2027. However, nations such as India are quickly emerging as crucial markets due to the increasing availability of lower-cost electric vehicles tailored for local buyers.
As India progresses towards its net-zero goals, the report emphasizes the need for robust policy support to accelerate EV adoption. This includes potential incentives for consumers and manufacturers, along with infrastructure development like widespread charging stations to facilitate the transition.
The report from BloombergNEF provides a detailed roadmap for stakeholders in the automotive and energy sectors, illustrating the pivotal transformations required to achieve the 2050 net-zero targets. As the country prepares for this shift, the findings highlight the urgent need for collaborative efforts between the government, industry leaders, and consumers to embrace the potential of electric mobility.
