Indian Americans are increasingly optimistic about India’s future, but hold deep concerns about US-India relations under a second Donald Trump administration, a new survey finds.

The 2024 Indian-American Survey, conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and YouGov in October, examined Indian-American political attitudes.

Two pivotal elections happened in India and the US last year, amid a deepening – but occasionally strained – partnership. Tensions between the countries flared over a US federal indictment of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and allegations of a Delhi-backed assassination plot on American soil.

With more than five million Indian-origin residents in the US, the survey asked some key questions: How do Indian Americans view former president Joe Biden’s handling of US-India ties? Do they see Donald Trump as a better option? And how do they assess India’s trajectory post the 2024 election?

Here are some key takeaways from the report, which was based on a nationally representative online survey of 1,206 Indian-American adult residents.

Indian Americans rated the Biden administration’s handling of US-India relations more favourably than Trump’s first term.

A hypothetical Kamala Harris administration was seen as better for bilateral ties than a second Trump term during the polling.

Partisan polarisation plays a key role: 66% of Indian-American Republicans believe Trump was better for US-India ties, while just 8% of Democrats agree.

Conversely, half of Indian-American Democrats favour Biden, compared to 15% of Republicans.

Since most Indian Americans are Democrats, this gives Biden the overall edge.

During their February meeting at the White House, both Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi praised each other’s leadership, but Trump criticised India’s high trade tariffs, calling them a “big problem.”

The alleged Indian plot to assassinate a separatist on US soil has not widely registered – only half of respondents are aware of it.

In October, the US charged a former Indian intelligence officer with attempted murder and money laundering for allegedly plotting to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a US-based advocate for an independent Sikh state, Khalistan.

This marked the first time the Indian government has been directly implicated in an alleged assassination attempt on a dissident. India has stated it is co-operating with the US investigation. In January, a panel set up by India to examine Washington’s allegations recommended legal action against an unnamed individual believed to be the former intelligence agent.

A narrow majority of the respondents said that India would “not be justified in taking such action and hold identical feelings about the US if the positions were reversed”.

Indian Americans are split along partisan party lines, with Democrats expressing greater empathy for Palestinians and Republicans leaning pro-Israel.

Four in 10 respondents believe Biden has been too pro-Israel in the ongoing conflict.

The attack in October 2023 by Hamas fighters from Gaza killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, inside Israel and saw 251 people taken hostage. Most have been released in ceasefire agreements or other arrangements.

Israel’s military offensive has killed more than 48,000 Palestinians in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

Talks to prolong the fragile ceasefire, the first phase of which ended on 1 March, are expected to resume in Qatar on Monday.

Forty-seven percent of Indian Americans believe India is heading in the right direction, a 10 percentage point increase from four years ago.

The same share approves of Modi’s performance as prime minister. Additionally, four in 10 respondents feel that India’s 2024 election – where Modi’s party did not get a majority – made the country more democratic.

The survey found that many Indian Americans support Modi and believe India is on the right track, yet half are unaware of the alleged assassination attempt on US soil.

Does this indicate a gap in information access, selective engagement or a tendency to overlook certain actions in favour of broader nationalist sentiment?

“It is hard to tease out the precise reason for this, but our sense is that this has more to do with selective engagement,” Milan Vaishnav, co-author of the study, said.

Data collected by Carnegie in 2020 shows that around 60% of Indian Americans follow Indian government and public affairs regularly, leaving a significant portion who “engage only sporadically”.

“Often people form broad impressions based on a combination of the news, social media and interactions with friends and family. Given the deluge of news in the US of late, it is not entirely surprising that the ‘murder-for-hire’ plot did not break through for a large section of the community,” Mr Vaishnav said.

Indian Americans, while cautious about Trump and generally favouring Biden or Harris for US-India relations, continue to strongly support Modi back in India. Given Modi’s nationalist policies, what accounts for this divergence? Is it driven more by personal impact than ideology?

“This is a case of ‘where you sit is where you stand’,” Mr Vaishnav said.

He said in related research, “we’ve explored this question in depth and found that Indian Americans generally hold more liberal views on US policy issues compared to India”.

“For instance, while Muslim Indian-Americans – minorities both in India and the US – maintain consistently more liberal attitudes, Hindu Indian-Americans express liberal views in the US (where they are a minority) but more conservative stances in India, where they belong to the majority.

“In other words, a person’s majority or minority status plays a key role in shaping their political views,” Mr Vaishnav said.

If Indian Americans viewed Trump as a threat to bilateral ties, why did they embrace him during his first term, as seen at events like ‘Howdy Modi!’? Has their opinion of Trump shifted due to his policies, or is it more about changing political currents?

“We should not generalise from one event or even one segment of the Indian American population. More than 50,000 Indian Americans gathered at ‘Howdy, Modi!’ first and foremost to see Modi, not Trump. Recall that Trump was added at a later date,” Mr Vaishnav said.

“Second, this is a diverse diaspora with a range of political views. While Indian Americans lean overwhelmingly toward the Democratic Party, a very sizeable minority – we estimate around 30% in 2024 – support the Republicans under Trump.”

Indian Americans remain committed to the Democratic Party, but attachment has waned. Some 47% identify as Democrats, down from 56% in 2020, a survey found last year.

Do Indian Americans have a nuanced understanding of political developments in both countries, or are their views more influenced by diaspora-driven narratives and media echo chambers?

Mr Vaishnav said data from 2020 shows that online news was the primary source of information about India, followed by television, social media and word of mouth. Within social media, YouTube, Facebook and WhatsApp were the most common platforms.

“Direct engagement with India is more limited, with foreign-born Indian Americans typically more involved than those born in the US.

“Having said that, one should not overlook the fact that the bonds of cultural connectivity remain quite strong, even with second and third-generation Indian Americans.”

In the end, the survey underscores a complex portrait of the Indian American community – one shaped by a blend of selective engagement, shifting political winds and varying personal experiences.

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