How oil, gold, and stock markets reacted in the month after previous global shocks
The US and Israeli attacks on Iran that commenced over the weekend shocked global markets and led to jarring price moves in the S&P 500 (GSPC), oil, and gold.
President Trump, meanwhile, pledged that the war could last for four to five weeks — or even “be fought ‘forever’” with existing munitions stockpiles, suggesting that the volatility is likely to continue.
Indeed, Tuesday brought a steep stock sell-off amid new strikes that increased fears of a drawn-out war.
But a Yahoo Finance analysis of these three key markets — oil, gold, and stocks — in previous moments of geopolitical shock found a familiar pattern: Prices have often spiked on the first days of trading but tended to normalize within weeks, even when the fighting was protracted.
The review covered nine key moments in recent history, starting with Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait through the recent capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. It found that the state of these three markets when the fighting began looked very different a month later.
A plume of smoke rises is seen after a strike on the Iranian capital Tehran on March 3, 2026. (ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images) ·ATTA KENARE via Getty Images
Perhaps the starkest example occurred last June during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran. During that conflict, US forces intercepted Iranian attacks and bombed Iranian nuclear sites.
The hostilities began on June 13, 2025, sparking immediate jumps in oil and gold prices and a drop in stocks. After 30 trading days, all three markets had moved in the opposite direction.
The spot price of Europe Brent oil jumped up almost 7.3% between June 12 and 13. But prices were actually down 0.6% at the end of 30 trading days, according to the analysis of prices from the US Energy Information Administration.
The pattern was similar with gold. Yahoo Finance’s own data there shows a one-day move upward of 1.49% during that conflict, followed by a 30 trading-day decline of 1.39%.
The S&P 500 followed a similar pattern — but in reverse — dropping 1.13% on the first day of trading after the bombs started falling, then rising 5.70% after 30 days of trading.
The effect of the Iran strikes is so far adhering to that initial historical pattern.
The market for Brent Crude oil ended last Friday at a price of $72.48 per barrel. It ended Monday at $78.16, a jump of over 7.8%. Gold was up almost 2.7% over that same time frame.
Few analysts, meanwhile, were willing to predict where prices might end up.
“We just don’t have enough information in terms of how long this is going to last, or what the longer-term ramifications of this would be,” SEI chief investment officer Jim Smigiel said in a Yahoo Finance appearance Monday as he urged individual investors to “take a breath, don’t do anything major.”
It remains to be seen if this conflict will hold to previous market patterns. This weekend’s strikes in Iran are already significantly more widespread than those in the 12-day war as well as more consequential — most notably in the killing of Ali Hosseini Khamenei, who had served as Iran’s Supreme Leader since 1989.
President Donald Trump is seen at a Medal of Honor ceremony in the East Room of the White House on March 2. (Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images) ·Anadolu via Getty Images
No matter the immediate twists and turns of this conflict, first-day price changes during moments of global stress are little correlated with where prices end up a month out.
In the events analyzed by Yahoo Finance for this story, including the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, US intervention in Libya, and the 2003 Iraq War, the direction that prices moved after one day matched the direction after one month less than 56% of the time.
Prices often only moderately changed after one month’s time, even if they had giant spikes on the first day, the analysis found.
For example, the price of gold spiked by 6.85% in the first trading day after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, but then fell. It was up a more moderate 2.28% over a 30-day span.
Similarly, the price of oil spiked by more than 34% a few days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine commenced, but had returned to earth after 30 trading days, up only 1.53%.
It’s a lesson that energy analysts have returned to in recent days.
“We are reminded that Oil peaked about a week following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Chris Verrone of Strategas wrote in a note, laying out plenty of differences this time around.
At the end of the day, he wrote, “we’d still be more inclined to be a buyer of pullbacks among the Energy equities in the weeks ahead.”
Tankers are seen off the coast of the United Arab Emirates on March 3 as Iran vows to close the Strait of Hormuz. (REUTERS/Amr Alfiky) ·Reuters / Reuters
It was part of a wider expectation that price moderation may be in the offing, though recent history includes one exception worth remembering.
Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 triggered price changes over the first day that not only stuck — but grew over the month of trading that followed.
That shock began when then-Iraqi president Saddam Hussein’s troops massed along the Kuwaiti border and then crossed on Aug. 2. Oil rose 11.64% after one day — then soared almost 57% over a 30-day span.
Likewise, the S&P 500 started down 1.14% after one day of that conflict and fell further in the subsequent weeks, dropping more than 10% after 30 days.
But even there, prices eventually recovered a few months later when allied forces expelled Iraqi troops from Kuwait and Hussein’s army returned to Baghdad.
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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