It’s the Christmas present many people were after: a genuine title race.

With just three points separating the top three, the busy festive period will be a crucial moment when it comes to the destination of this year’s title. Will Manchester City wrest their crown back? Will Arsenal land their first title since 2004? Or can Aston Villa — seven times champions of England — become league champions for the first time since 1981?

While players across Europe get a winter break to reset, Premier League football is relentless. This run into the new year is when a squad’s limits are truly exposed, and the teams that manage injuries, fatigue and off‑pitch distractions are usually the ones that come through it best.

But which of Arsenal, City, Villa, or Chelsea is best equipped heading into the New Year? Not just by squad size but by bench impact, injury resilience, minutes spread and versatility. Let’s find out.

Arsenal 

Arsenal know how a single defensive injury can shift the balance of a title race. When their French centre-back William Saliba’s back injury sidelined him for the final 10 games of the 2022-23 season, City took advantage.

Since then, Arsenal have learned from those experiences and built one of the Premier League’s strongest squads. Manager Mikel Arteta has used 24 players in the league this season, and the results reflect that depth. Without either Gabriel or Saliba starting, their win rate has risen from 33 per cent last season to 75 per cent this time. Their defensive structure is among the Premier League’s most resilient and has been strengthened further by the additions of defender Piero Hincapie and Cristhian Mosquera.

Depth exists across the pitch, and the squad has been carefully built to fit Mikel Arteta’s requirements. Martin Odegaard’s availability has been patchy, but summer signing Eberechi Eze has eased the creative load with a similar profile of finding pockets and threading final balls. Bukayo Saka’s workload has been managed more than in previous seasons through Noni Madueke, a like-for-like replacement who has three Champions League goals in three appearances.

The vulnerability remains defensive injuries. Only Leeds have suffered more injuries than Arsenal this season. Arsenal have already used six different centre-back pairings and have conceded in five of their last eight games since Gabriel went down, having previously allowed goals in just four of 17. They also miss his aerial dominance in both boxes. The Brazilian has won 38 aerial duels in the Premier League this season, still more than any other Arsenal player — despite his recent absence.

The next few weeks will show if Arsenal’s defensive cover can withstand the pressure and keep them at the top.

They have just five fit defenders, with Gabriel, Mosquera and Ben White injured. Gabriel’s expected return at the start of January should help ease the strain.

Upcoming fixtures

Saturday, 27 December: Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion — Premier League
Tuesday, 30 December: Arsenal vs Aston Villa — Premier League
Saturday, 3 January: AFC Bournemouth vs Arsenal — Premier League
Thursday, 8 January: Arsenal vs Liverpool — Premier League

Manchester City

Manchester City are back in the mix after a slow start to their Premier League season. More recently, after back‑to‑back losses to Newcastle and Bayer Leverkusen, Pep Guardiola’s side have won seven in a row with virtually the same XI. The only adjustment has come from Doku’s injury, with Reijnders stepping in.

This younger City side is the most settled his selection has been since the 2020–21 season. Even so, Guardiola insists they’re not fully formed yet and expects their performances to improve by February.

The club’s midfield has taken a step forward from last season but still has a major gap with Rodri’s continued absence. Nico Gonzalez has stepped into his role and become one of City’s most reliable players, but Mateo Kovacic’s ongoing injury issues have also added to his burden. Without Rodri and Kovacic, City’s work in possession is clearly limited and the team is still learning to play through pressure, which was most evident in their 5-4 win over Fulham, despite leading 5-1 on the hour.

Rayan Cherki has added something different to City’s output this season (Carl Recine/Getty Images)

The reliance on Erling Haaland in front of goal is also a concern for City. He has scored 21 of their 41 league goals this season, with four assists as well. His backup, Omar Marmoush, has yet to score in the league and has started just twice. Now on international duty with Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations, he opened their campaign with a goal in a 2-1 win over Zimbabwe. City’s bench, meanwhile, has produced only one league goal, a depth issue that rotation alone won’t fix.

Phil Foden and Ryan Cherki, though, are beginning to find rhythm. Foden has six goals in his last five league games, while Cherki, whose game thrives on unpredictability, has six assists, second only to Bruno Fernandes. A player of his profile thriving under Guardiola again hints at the stylistic shift at City.

Upcoming fixtures

Saturday, 27 December: Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — Premier League
Thursday, 1 January: Sunderland vs Manchester City — Premier League
Sunday, 4 January: Manchester City vs Chelsea — Premier League
Wednesday, 7 January: Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion — Premier League

Aston Villa

Aston Villa are the outlier in the top four. Their depth is built on adjustment and resilience, not volume. Unai Emery relies on a tight core rather than a bloated squad. Morgan Rogers embodies that approach: he has played 99 per cent of available league minutes and leads the side with eight goal contributions. He is central to everything going forward.

Villa’s squad looks thin on paper, but it is the oldest in the Premier League at an average age of 28.4, and that experience tells. After a winless run over their first five games, the side have since won 11 of their 12, with nine of those victories coming by a single goal. They have taken 15 points from losing positions, the most in the league, and dropped the fewest from winning positions alongside Arsenal and Liverpool.

That profile reflects well on Emery and on a team that understands game states and manages them under pressure.

Can Morgan Rogers fire Villa to their first league title since 1981? (Carl Recine/Getty Images)

Villa have nine goal involvements from substitutes, the second most in the league behind Brighton. Emiliano Buendia has three of those goals, a league high, while Donyell Malen has made 13 substitute appearances, more than any other player. It is a return that underlines Emery’s man-management and rotation, squeezing maximum impact from his bench.

The concern is sustainability. Villa sit 16th in Opta’s expected points table despite, yes, being third in the actual standings. If results begin to track those underlying numbers during the festive run, a stretched squad will have little margin for error. The Europa League’s Thursday-Sunday schedule will only increase the strain and test whether this run can hold.

Upcoming fixtures

Saturday, 27 December: Chelsea vs Aston Villa — Premier League
Tuesday, 30 December: Arsenal vs Aston Villa — Premier League
Saturday, 3 January: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest — Premier League
Wednesday, 7 January: Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa — Premier League